machinehead Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 How quick we are to forget the miasma of fear which gripped the pre-opening hour ... and to omit giving credit to those responsible for vanquishing it. After the awful employment numbers were released, CBNC's live camera took us to the S&P pit in Chicago, where an alarmed trader emoted that the S&Ps were gonna open down "eighteen handles" and that the hapless longs faced a total, agonizing rethink. Oh, F! Oh, the horror. So how was the collapse of western civilization averted this morning? At Fed headquarters, Al Green and Ben Bernanke gathered the faithful. With steely resignation, they exchanged their grey suits for loincloths, and applied bright war paint to their faces. They led the hushed, half-naked board members to the upstairs conference room in the Marriner S. Eccles Building, illuminated solely by the flickering light of the gas log in the marble fireplace. Behind closed doors, the occult "Helicopter Money Drop Rain Dance" began. To the insistent hypnotic beat of hard-driving "reflation music" and the muffled patter of middle-aged feet on the carpeted floor, you could hear them chanting and singing: CEREMONY ... Funky-style music got ya good now children CEREMONY ... Rock 'n roll music got ya good now children Ceremony gotcha good now, yeah Ceremony gotcha good now, yeah Ceremony gotcha GOOD GOOD yeah Yeah! YEAH! Yea-yuh! And it worked. Thirty minutes after the soggy open, the Naz broke free, and the semiCONs were raging and crackling. Both the spoos and the Nasty futures closed up for the day. It does give one pause that the S&P cash closed stone flat. That implies big volatility on Monday, though which direction is unknowable. But it's nothing that a little reflation music can't dispel. [lyrics from The Cult, Ceremony, 1991.] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 I have over 200k available balance on my credit cards...my balance is 0. but most people love to get "free" money.deep down people are gamblers as i can tell you first hand.(I work in the atlantic city casino's)where mindless people dump there cash into machines and never see it again.even if they win,it gets"doubled down"and immediately lost so they just go to the cash advance machine for more @19.8% interest. my old roomate was such a bad gambler (on football)that he ended up in the hole 30k(he only made 20k a year).he had to go to household finance and borrow the money @29.9% interest or the goodfellas where gonna make him an offer he could not refuse. the market as mark points out,does the same thing..it makes you keep doubling down till the ultimate collapse of your bank account and your credit. there seems to be hopers no matter how low we go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Machine -- Well, if the truth were told, the Greenman and his crew had the jobs report in hand long before its release. They had a plan and when the futures collapsed, their plan was executed. The Greenman put in action. Is it any wonder that the manic speculative trading continues. There's no risk. As long as you are buying, the FED is on your side and will save you. How will the Greenman be stopped? He's been declared a prince or a duke or something and he has the presses. He has the media and the politicians on his side. He has the banks and Wall Street vermen on his side . . . and he now has the new Dept. of Homeland security to protect it all. Holy crap! I feel very lonely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Essentially, the big difference between Jan. 2002 and Jan. 2003 is this.... Budgets, programs and expenditures that were approved, actually are being executed... Last year, companies cancelled orders, waited to buy... This year, companies suffered because of excessive cuts in staff and resources in the last year... now some of that is getting addressed... I'm not saying that we're setting the World on fire out there, but I believe the corporate strata has sensed the long-awaited capitulation of the consumer, and are beginning to invest, slowly but surely... I'd be happy with just seeing a flat year rather than a down one myself... and I think that's what we'll see. I think that's what is being reflected here in the strength of the SOX index, and of course they will over do it... FWIW... Have a great weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Mr Fart: My experience with manufacturers right now is that they have cut production, minimized inventory, idled facilities, laid off a lot of people and spent next to nothing on capital expenditures. Many are in the fetal position hoping for an upturn. They are buying only the absolute minimum of technology. All purchases are made with a gun to their heads. Maybe things are different in your locale , or industry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Machinehead - very amusing comments. Dosen't look like Al green has any intention of stopping the round-the-clock money printing, helicopter dropping scheme we saw develop a few months ago. Meanwhile those that look for a pullback in gold will only get one in the event of the pre-mature death of SH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 MH- 10 minutes before the REPORT-I placed an order for a full handle of March 950 SPX puts-bid $51-ask $53.10-I put my bid in limit $53.10 (yes-I had a feeling about the report) at the split second the report comes out I see my order filled and it goes $56.- bid-$57.- offer-before i can congratulate myself I notice 1.-they are not in my account 2.-SPX index is trading but zero SPX options of any series are trading. I call my broker who confirms nothing is trading but the index and doesn't know why-most unusual says he-where in hell is my fill say I-the long and short of it is options on the SPX started trading 15 minutes later AFTER the market turned DOWN I didn't get a fill-sorry-must be a computer glitch and the 950 put opened a mere dollar bid better than yesterdays close-those DORKS in the pits caught off guard-wouldn't have pulled the plug for awhile-would they??? When the end comes Budda can hold the wooden stake and I'll pound it in. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 10, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Fleck and others have been heavily shorting the last couple of days. They say that the companies like ORCL have given huge discounts in the 4th quarter, especially on licencing deals, in order to "catch" the usual year end "budget flush" at the major Fortune 500 companies. There has been a flurry of IT spending, but it is heavily discounted, and most companies bought in the 4th quarter what they would have spent in 2003, because everyone knows that huge budget cuts are coming this year. The question is this: Many companies will report good numbers, but they will either be silent on future guidance or they will guide down for the 2nd quarter. Are the current stock prices already discounting the budget flush and a slowdown later in 2003? Or are the prices discounting a massive resurgence in spending in the entire year of 2003? How stocks react next week will tell us. The other wild card is how much money is left to buy stocks. If the news comes in "good" or "as expected", and people are happy with what they hear, is there really enough cash sitting around out there to push stocks higher? Probably not. If you look at the intraday chart during the last several trading days, you will see giant buying volume early, then see it fall off after 11:00am. When there is REAL buying, you should see heavy volume persist all day, as a steady stream of new money is "put to work". That is what makes a solid 2 billion + share day which usually marks a legitimate bull move. But the early volume spikes which fade quickly means the following: - Stocks are being "pushed" early to squeeze the shorts. - Speculative money is piling in the HeatMappers on the open, then profits are taken in the afternoon. - Too many are shorting on the way up, and the early morning volume spike is a mass of short covering. The process repeats itself as stubborn shorts continue to re-short and get blown out every other day. So far, the move looks speculative....Although many daily charts look very bullish.... Next week is bound to be extremely volatile. Good to have lots of cash and just wait for the dust to clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Just some perspective on this rally-I said the other night that the rallies in the last year have been smaller in point gain and duration than all others since the top but they have been more EXPLOSIVE as the rats get driven deeper and deeper into a corner. The largest rally in this bear of bears was 9/21/01 to 10/11/01 for 1,370 points-the largest rally in 2002 was 2/19/02 to 3/8/02 for 930 points. This rally doesn't even qualify as one-more like an explosion in a fone booth-dow close Dec.2-8862-oex-477-spx-934-todays close dow-8784-oex-470-spx927-so in 5 weeks we are down not UP! The Bradley turn and the Fib turn run from Monday to Friday-3rd wave down dead ahead. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
slinger Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Well the day ended up, not exactly as planned, but nevertheless it was a green day. The ascending wedge held as support and resistance as expected. Looks like Monday may be the day that it falls out of bed. We shall see... courtesy of ttrader.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Next week is bound to be extremely volatile. Good to have lots of cash and just wait for the dust to clear. Wyndy, That is exactly what to expect. an overlaping (corrective) topping process. things are a little clearer: a=869-931 (62 points) b= 931-908 c= 908- 946? (62x.618=38( 38=908=946) I see 946 as THE TOP. :wink2: we shall see. I took a day off yesterday. Instead of using my mental stop, i went long a bit in the spx( as opposed to selling the march's). will sell those on the way to 946. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubbadropping Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 The entire Ponzi Scheme is setting up for a geopolitical bomb of one kind or another. Most of the sheep are now herded into the barn. OE is upon us so some down spiking is expected as early as Monday but I cannot communicate how incredibly vulnerable this paper trail is to an unexpected,uncontrolable 'event'. We average 3 to 4 catastrophic blowups a year and we are now on an overdue timeline for the very next one. Looking at the bank chart I suspect theres a huge pile of shit in that woodpile that gets uncovered soon enough. The JPM bail out of October was covered up in my opinion. Remember when there chart looked like a sequel to Halloween V? I look for a big bank to go Exon Valdese sometime this winter, then we should begin to see some real selling. We are overdue an implosive event. Its been a free ride on fake paper from October thru mid January. Times up. At least come Warnings SEason somebody should drop a turd into the soup bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Ned, I am an Industrial R.E. Broker in the Los Angeles area and can strongly attest to the fact that the manufacturing sector is in a bigtime hurt. At the same time, everybody that is still in business is trying to buy a building - but the inventory is virtually non-existent. What is on the market is highly overpriced. That being said, there is alot of money out there chasing hard assets. I focus primarily on investment grade properties and have watched Cap rates dropp from 10% down to about 7%. We're into bidding wars on Leased Investment Properties. There is a plethora of properties for lease and with every new offering, there are 10 phone calls on day one to see if the Owner will sell. Owner typically says, "If you can show me where I can put my money or find me a replacement"....Answer is - no place to trade into and you can only get 1-2% in bank. With the amount of $$ Uncle Al is pumping in, prices are only going higher. I'm holding property, PM and Gold Stocks while trying to find another home for my ever declining in value wallet pictures of Uncle Al. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShamPoo Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 Bank on it "Standard and Poor's has placed FleetBoston Financial's (FBF) long- and short-term ratings on watch with "negative implications," citing the company's announcement that it would take $450 million in special charges in the fourth quarter. S&P currently has "A" and "A-1" ratings, respectively, on the financial services company. "More troubling than the amount of the charges taken is Standard & Poor's belief that the environmental conditions creating the charges remain virtually unchanged," said credit anal cyst John Bartko. He said Fleet's domestic asset quality remained a question mark amid continued weakness in the economy, and its exposure in Latin America remained relatively large. The stock is trading down 35 cents at $27.15." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 10, 2003 Report Share Posted January 10, 2003 END- 946 I agree is possible but i believe you will agree it can crap out anytime between here and there! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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