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Marketviews Consensus


Guest ike

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RAW DATA AS OF 12-21-02: 6 BULLS, 27 BEARS, 7 NEUTRAL

1.The Consensus so far appears to be a confirming indicator. HOWEVER, in my view the data is not enough to support an informed conclusion. In my studies, I need at least 4-5 years of history, in order to feel confident about my conclusions.

 

2.Our guests' position is in response to this question:

Between now and our next interview, are you bullish, bearish, or neutral?

 

 

3.The Consensus is calculated as follows: Bullish votes get 1 point, Bearish votes get a -1 point, neutral votes get 0 points. We add all the points to get the final tally. Currently we interview 40 guests, thus the consensus' can move theoretically from +40 (if all 40 guests were bullish) to -40 (if all guests were bearish)

 

 

4.Out of the 40 guests, 13 are Money Managers, 1 is a Market Strategist, 18 are Newsletter writers, and 8 are traders.

 

 

5. Twelve Out of the 40 are monitored by Timer Digest.

 

 

6. I have labeled both the turning points and the dates, to make it easier to see how it correlates to the SP500.

 

mvconsensus.jpg

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