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I went to a "progressive" party this weekend, hosted by some well-to-do Dallasites, and working the crowd, it was all spend,spend,spend.

On Valentine's Day, I attended a rather large dinner party here in Manhattan Beach.

 

The universal topic of discussion was real estate. Home Flipping has now become money making idea of the year. Interestly, there was little interest or discussion about stocks or Wall Struck.

 

Virtually everybody, including my girlfriend, plan on refinancing equity out of their existing residences to buy a house in a "rehab" neighborhood, for the sole purpose of flipping it after one year.

 

As usual, I said nothing about bubbles, lending excesses, or the possibility of higher interest rates. I just kept my mouth shut.

 

Unlike stocks, where there are quite a few skeptics around, there is NOBODY bearish on real estate prices in SoCal.

 

The sentiment regarding RE prices resembles the Nasdaq fever in Feb - Mar 2000.

 

Many were looking to me for my opinion on where I was putting my money.

 

I said I had no interest in "leveraged speculation", and I was putting money into a "coin collection". I explained it simply as a "hobby" and not an "investment."

 

As usual, the reaction was one of astonishment and bewilderment.

Similar situation, here in San Dayglo.........delusion is reaching psychotic proportions.

 

Interestingly, dollar bearishness is being discussed openly....and we are approaching major bounce territory (technically and sentiment wise), imo.

 

 

Rates looking to go up. Note the strong weekly MACD divergence.

 

 

Prechter seems to think the market is topping now, and the dollar is bottoming now...and once the market begins to decline, we will head into deflation, which would lead to a weaker market, lower gold prices and a stronger dollar.

 

You would have to say that the dollar chart sure looks like a double bottom, and the S&P chart sure does look like it could be a double top. If these prove to be true, does gold actually go lower in a deflationary environment?

That's been my primary internal question for a long time now. I think it does, because the scarcity of money will increase. Mining stocks should go down on profit taking and margin selling, and I'd expect commods to go down too, but less than equities. "Gold is nobody's paper." Do large and small participants even think to reach for gold in times of peril anymore? In any event, I'd expect gold and silver to hold up better than the broad markets, and cash to outperform all. If cash is less plentiful, it's inevitable that people will settle for less of it when offering their metals for sale.

MY READ IN THE NAB IS different;At a beer zhlokers party here people walking around claiming to having made a small fortune collecting aluminum cans,returning recyclables,saving on water by srubbing themselves boyscout style,with sand---Selling their furniture and investing in gortex ski clothing---pemmikan jerkee,the kind that lasts for aeons,wrapped in duct tape, barrels of verminous hardtack--getting tatood in second rate parlors by manneristic hacks with microbe laden needles-some terrrified of losing their barechested status through this wild burst of frugality are resorting to decalomania --better known in the thirties as cockamamies---

Woman wandering around bragging about the bargains they got in used spinning wheels--idlers wondering when a distillation unit would be on sale with claims of being able to recycle spent beer--

The wheeling and dealing was, I tell you, unbearably pretentious--Poseurs and scapegraces all--

 

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :cry: Allons mon freres--back to the basics --from aliment to excrement and back again finnegan

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a quick interesting article since many have been having online web problems of late

 

http://prudentbear.com/archive_comm_articl...ntent_idx=29790

marshall mcluhan made rreference to the probability of such an outcome a couple of dozen years or more ago--

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :cry: but then again so did Joseph,prodige of pharaoh in egypt--

p.s. can we come to some kind of conclusioin about Prechter??That sob is scaring the living ---t outa me--what with his cash over gold scenario--i mean can this guy be wrong %100 of the time--noone can--but but but as the heavuily indebted dufus in the tv ad says so poignantly--Will someone please help me--

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I went to a "progressive" party this weekend, hosted by some well-to-do Dallasites, and working the crowd, it was all spend,spend,spend.

On Valentine's Day, I attended a rather large dinner party here in Manhattan Beach.

 

The universal topic of discussion was real estate. Home Flipping has now become money making idea of the year. Interestly, there was little interest or discussion about stocks or Wall Struck.

 

Virtually everybody, including my girlfriend, plan on refinancing equity out of their existing residences to buy a house in a "rehab" neighborhood, for the sole purpose of flipping it after one year.

 

As usual, I said nothing about bubbles, lending excesses, or the possibility of higher interest rates. I just kept my mouth shut.

 

Unlike stocks, where there are quite a few skeptics around, there is NOBODY bearish on real estate prices in SoCal.

 

The sentiment regarding RE prices resembles the Nasdaq fever in Feb - Mar 2000.

 

Many were looking to me for my opinion on where I was putting my money.

 

I said I had no interest in "leveraged speculation", and I was putting money into a "coin collection". I explained it simply as a "hobby" and not an "investment."

 

As usual, the reaction was one of astonishment and bewilderment.

Similar situation, here in San Dayglo.........delusion is reaching psychotic proportions.

 

Interestingly, dollar bearishness is being discussed openly....and we are approaching major bounce territory (technically and sentiment wise), imo.

 

 

Rates looking to go up. Note the strong weekly MACD divergence.

 

 

Prechter seems to think the market is topping now, and the dollar is bottoming now...and once the market begins to decline, we will head into deflation, which would lead to a weaker market, lower gold prices and a stronger dollar.

 

You would have to say that the dollar chart sure looks like a double bottom, and the S&P chart sure does look like it could be a double top. If these prove to be true, does gold actually go lower in a deflationary environment?

That's been my primary internal question for a long time now. I think it does, because the scarcity of money will increase. Mining stocks should go down on profit taking and margin selling, and I'd expect commods to go down too, but less than equities. "Gold is nobody's paper." Do large and small participants even think to reach for gold in times of peril anymore? In any event, I'd expect gold and silver to hold up better than the broad markets, and cash to outperform all. If cash is less plentiful, it's inevitable that people will settle for less of it when offering their metals for sale.

MY READ IN THE NAB IS different;At a beer zhlokers party here people walking around claiming to having made a small fortune collecting aluminum cans,returning recyclables,saving on water by srubbing themselves boyscout style,with sand---Selling their furniture and investing in gortex ski clothing---pemmikan jerkee,the kind that lasts for aeons,wrapped in duct tape, barrels of verminous hardtack--getting tatood in second rate parlors by manneristic hacks with microbe laden needles-some terrrified of losing their barechested status through this wild burst of frugality are resorting to decalomania --better known in the thirties as cockamamies---

Woman wandering around bragging about the bargains they got in used spinning wheels--idlers wondering when a distillation unit would be on sale with claims of being able to recycle spent beer--

The wheeling and dealing was, I tell you, unbearably pretentious--Poseurs and scapegraces all--

 

beardrech :ph34r: :ph34r: :cry: Allons mon freres--back to the basics --from aliment to excrement and back again finnegan

Brilliant. We're not worthy...

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