TheDeepBlueSea Posted January 29, 2003 Report Share Posted January 29, 2003 I've been waiting for signs of a downturn in mortage refinancing before shorting MTG, the MGIC Investment Corp., a private mortage insurer. Their biggest liability is C-BASS, a sub-prime refinancing entity. Not being a GSE, my thinking is that they are more vulnerable to an increase in mortage defaults. Comments? Btw, thanks for reminding me about SLM. I was thinking of shorting Sally once, but then I forgot about her. Looking at the chart, it's a good thing I did. DBS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 29, 2003 Report Share Posted January 29, 2003 Meta-End and Driver-have it right. NOTHING has changed it ran up to the neckline and the NECKLINE held. Plus we are STILL in the upward sloping BEARISH pennant, we came down tested the bottom, fell thru came back inside and ran up to the top at around 869.50 rolled over and crapped into the close. At the mo-66 of the top 100 on the island are RED and with this thing coiling in the pennant as it did today it SHOULD be over. It could go a bit higher but with all the jamming going on all they could muster was 21 lousy points. That money flow chart of Meta's tells it all. Plus my charts are candlestick and if you put on a chart of SPX for the last hour in Candlesticks you can see the waning momentum as it strained upward and the hammer at the end was beautiful. Gold is at a juncture-3 waves down at the close today and they DO NOT look impulsive-so we should head up now . BUT-however remote the chance if it craps from here-BAIL REAL FAST! I remain 100% short-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted January 29, 2003 Report Share Posted January 29, 2003 I fart in the markets general direction! :grin: No change in Position. Here here. Ditto. (speakers on) That about sums it up today. bbl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midnite lightning Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Wowza! They played this one. Held the q calls till 3:30 and dumped all of them. Positioned myself for the gdp tomorrow and the pluge. Bought q putz. This pig looks like it is toast. They tried hard all day and spent a hell of a lot of energy and finally got it green just barely. Lot of momentum down. Aol lost 100 billion for 02. How in the hell can they be allowed to even conduct business? Share holders should take the crew out back to the woodshed. Sad part, lots more of these surprises lurking. Only the tip of the iceberg. CYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Slothrop Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Huge, monster bullish engulfing on the NT chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgentSmith Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Story on Crapvision right now how armored vehicle sales are soaring. 4,000 worldwide sold in '95, 18,000 last year and no let up in sight. The elite who are raping the general populous aren't stupid - they know what's coming and are taking all precautions necessary. Protection from vigilante justice performed by Joe Sixpack who has realized how badly screwed they've been. Is that what it is coming to? North Korea is already a dangerous cornered beast - we don't want to mess with them. Middle East, South America, etc...all a disaster. Joe Sixpack is still blind-folded, even after all the atrocities that have happened. All my coworkers have their heads in the sand. I've brought a couple around and got them to change their 401(k) out of the heat-mapping funds and into the 'safest' fund we have - Pimco Total Return Fund (PMBIX). Smartest people I've met are those not from America. Good friend from Turkey knows better. He's lived through the hyperinflation in Turkey, the government oppression and struggle just to survive. He's fully aware of American Imperialism and the pervasiveness of big brother. This huge ship is being steered right into hell, with Alan G., Shrub and all their komrades at the wheel, mouth wide open...tongue flapping in the breeze...eyes reflecting the blazing red pits of hell before them. The smart ones have already entered the every man for himself stage. Survival of the fittest. But before Joe Sixpack is sacrificed, we'll first attempt to cannablize those holding natural resources. Alan G. et al. are themselves nothing more than cornered animals at this point, and it makes them exceptionally more dangerous - risking anything and everything to remain World Leader. Europe is uniting, the Dollar is collapsing, the Euro is rising, the World is Just saying No to Amerika...China shift of power has left us squeezed in the middle. Better lay our stake in ME and anywhere else we can......they know what's coming. Short, but don't overextend yourself because they'll do all they can to screw you. AgentSmith Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Several of you have discussed some really great books on the board lately. If you are interested in getting some of them, now is a good time to take advantage of the January bookstore specials which end Friday. To do so you must use the link in this post to get to the bookstore page. Then you can surf the site and order the titles you want. Use the search box on the bookstore site to come up with all the Jesse Livermore titles, or Neely's book, or any of Prechter's, Jack Schwager's etc. And of course, Hurst. To get the special you must start surfing from the link below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 30, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Slothrop: NT's action was just another short squeeze, couldn't even take out the prior highs. Wanna monster candle? Just look at RMBS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 How much you wanna bet they take the Dow positive for the month, even if only by a couple points. They're about 230 points away as of tonight's close, with 2 days to go. Hate to say it but it's probably in the bag, and it's gonna hurt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Playing into bear claws, reloaded a block of gfi today, added spx mar 950 puts near the close.... max upside for spx .618 retrace of move from 935 to 844 which is 900 i think more like .382 of that move which equals 879...either way this is toast into the weekend. TRADE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 How much you wanna bet they take the Dow positive for the month, even if only by a couple points. They're about 230 points away as of tonight's close, with 2 days to go. Hate to say it but it's probably in the bag, and it's gonna hurt. There is that possibility. Hedge hunds are there to stop downside runaways and create upside stampeeds for the market as they did today. I can see them jamming the futures and adding enough buying to get the momemtum players in and push the thing up for a positive close to Jan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wrecked him Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Catching up on IDS after a hard day of reducing breasts in real women-no supermodels here. Much wailing and gnashing of teeth on the board today. Quote from Technical Analysis of Stock Trends (6th edition) Edwards, Magee Pg 70 "Finally, it must be said that, in rare cases, a Head and Shoulders Top is confirmed by a decisive neckline penetration and still prices do not go down much further. "False moves" such as this are the most difficult phenomena with which the technical anal cyst has to cope. Fortunately, in the case of the H$S, they are extremely rare. The odds are so overwhelmingly in favor of the downtrend's continuing once a H$S has been confirmed that it pays to believe the evidence of the chart no matter how much it may appear to be out of accord with the prevailing news or market psychology.There is one thing that can be said and is worth noting about H$S formations which fail of completion or produce false confirmations. Such developments almost never occur in the early stages of a Primary advance. A H$S which does not "work" is a warning that, even though there is still some life in the situation, a genuine turn is near. The next time somethng in the nature of a reversal pattern begins to appear on the charts, it is apt to be final. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 found this great s&p chart,it puts it in to perspective...the page is a pdf file http://www.safehaven.com/Editorials/gayer/...012603gayer.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 We ended up marginally in the red yesterday and today its weak bounce mode, ho hum. Lots of green but teensy gains in most cases. Good in a way because it will get the momentum indicators off short term Dover Sole. Expanding intraday formation on the DOW so could be volatile for a while but ultimately bearish.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted January 30, 2003 Report Share Posted January 30, 2003 Some News Is Noisier Than Other 1/29/03 Today reminded us again that news is noise. President Hoover's SOU was news. Well, sort of. The big rock in the pond. The rest of the world hated it, the fucutures took a huge dump overnight, and the market sold off in the morning. But the 8-13 day cycles had just turned up the day before. This cycle wasn't ready to turn down yet. If it hadn't been for the huge overnight fucutures dump, none of us would have been surprised the market was up few bucks today. We gotta stop paying attention to that nonsense. Doc dissects what happened and chronicles the cycles in the usual intraday, short term, and intermediate outlooks, and tells us where this shipwreck is heading, with hot pictures of naked stock charts, Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool. Is the Golden Stool about to drop? Drop by your stock proctologist's office and have a look. Stoolies, log one in. If you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! And don't forget to join Doc during the market day in Stooltrading Beta as he plots the market's twists and turns for you, in advance yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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