B4 the Bell, Turdsday April 15, 2004

[Guest yobob1]

 

 

[DrStool]

Okeedoke boys and girls. I'm turning the switch on. Registered board members only.

[Hiding Bear]

China"BuBBles":

 

China's GDP soars higher-than-expected 9.7%

By Financial Times reporters

Published: April 15 2004 4:39

 

China's gross domestic product grew 9.7 per cent in the first quarter, exceeding consensus estimates and raising further doubts over the effectiveness of Beijing's effort to cool the economy.

 

The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that the country's GDP, which grew 7.9 per cent in the same period last year, had reached Rmb2,710.6bn by the end of March. Fixed-asset investment grew a staggering 43 per cent to Rmb879.9bn while the consumer price index went up by 2.8 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the same period last year.

 

While GDP expanded less than the previous quarter's 9.9 per cent, anal cysts were forecasting growth of just around 9.2 per cent.

 

The latest data represented a setback to China's attempt to rein in runaway economic growth. Starting last summer, the Beijing government has issued persistent warnings against unrestrained bank loans and overinvestment in some industries.

 

The National Bureau of Statistics in a statement highlighted the large increase in fixed-asset investment as the government's primary concern.

 

"Fixed-asset investment is growing too fast. Efforts to control blind, low-level and over-lapping investment in certain industries and regions have not been effective. The situation is putting pressure on inflation and exacerbating 'bottle-necks' in raw material and energy supplies as well as transportation."

 

New figures have also shown that China's attempts to impose discipline on its banks have failed. Money supply, measured by the M2 measure, was up 19.1 per cent in the first quarter and loan growth rose by an annualised 21 per cent - far higher than the contraction of 13 per cent the central bank is aiming for in 2004.

 

Even wholly-owned state banks such as the Bank of China have failed to do the central bank's bidding. Their loan growth in the first three months was up nearly 10 per cent.

 

The Chinese cabinet on Monday had pledged to pursue further "macro-controls" to prevent the creation of asset "bubbles". On the same day, the central bank tightened monetary policy by increasing the ratio of deposits that financial institutions must keep at the central bank from 7 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

 

China's GDP soars higher-than-expected 9.7%

 

 

In China, Signs of an Overheating Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/14/business...ess/14yuan.html

[DrStool]

OK. What happens now is if a non-registered user tries to access this board from their favorites list or the link in the left column they will get an error message asking them to log in.

 

I can't wait for all the nasty emails I am going to receive today. But as you all know, registering is not a big deal.

 

The Forum listing also will not be visible on the Home Page of Stool Pigeons Wire. To bring more people in, you may want to cross fertilize by sprinkling links around other SPW forums and around the web.

 

Brian and I have been discussing the idea of making this forum a subscription based service. I know some of you, feel that Brian deserves compensation for the value he contributes. You also feel that lurkers should be kept out, and some of you feel that this should be a private, fee based Forum. I agree, in principle.

 

While Brian and I have talked about it, we have made no firm decisions as far as a date, or pricing, or even if we will definitely go that way. In my opinion, there is not enough traffic here to support a pay service, as data shows that when a service converts from free to fee, only 10-15% of free users sign up.

 

I would love to hear your comments on this. I know it will make some of you very unhappy. That's ok. I expect that. But by the same token, running these boards as a free public service may be spiritually rewarding, but it doesn't pay the 'lectric bill, or the even the hosting bill, or the internet access bill. I have spent 3 years soliciting voluntary contributions. That doesn't work. The same 10 people contribute from time to time. Everyone else, not. I have solicited subscriptions to the Anals every day for over two years. 10% of you have subscribed. I appreciate those of your who have. From what I hear from you, you appreciate the information and data you get in return. You folks are my heroes!

 

I think, considering the value that this site gives back to everyone who comes here, that everyone who uses it should contribute. Some of you have done that. You are what sustains this for all those who don't. I don't think that's fair to those who do contribute.

 

I think most of you understand that, and I am prepared to take the heat from those who don't.

[Ned38]

Good on ya Doc

[DrStool]

Rebound Due Today

 

More Trouble Down The Road

 

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

[Madame Wrecked Him]

In the week ending April 10, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 360,000, an increase of 30,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 330,000. The 4-week moving average was 344,250, an increase of 6,750 from the previous week's revised average of 337,500.

 

http://www.ows.doleta.gov/unemploy/claims_arch.asp

[Guest]

Claims up ...watch the futures climb

 

IMMEDIATELY Steve 'Lies'man on Crapvision says "Mark nothing to worry about..not unusual to have a small spike but the over all trend remains down"

 

Then he just throws up a chart showing SPX1674 blah blah blah

[DrStool]

Regarding taxes, as you all know my Dad died last October after battling cancer for a year. For 60 years, he had religiously prepared his and my mom's tax return, paying every penny that he owed, never, ever looking for questionable deductions. He always followed both the letter and spirit of the law, not just in that, but everything he did in life.

 

One of the things he did, was to manually order their IRA distributions, every year. Uh oh. This was something I had thought that Vanguard did automatically. When I sat down the last few days to take care of my parents final joint return, that's when I found out that no distribution had been taken. Vanguard, which runs gazillions in IRA money told me, oh no, they do not do that automatically, the customer has to set it up.

 

BUZZZ! 50% Penalty assessed. That's right, the IRS penalizes you 50% of the required distribution for those 70 1/2 and over, if you forget to take it. In this case the penalty was more than my parents' adjusted gross income for the year. Fortunately, I was assured by IRS personel, that if my mother wrote a letter asking the penalty to be waived, and explaining the reasons, the IRS would send the money back. But the penalty has to be paid first.

 

Is this a crazy country, or what. I don't know which is worse, the fact that Vanguard, who I am really starting to hate, doesn't do this automatically, or that the IRS charges a penalty of half the required distribution.

 

So if you are getting to that age, make sure you set up your IRA's for automatic distributions. That way when you are gone, your survivors will not be stuck.

[thesun]

China"BuBBles":

 

China's GDP soars higher-than-expected 9.7%

By Financial Times reporters

Published: April 15 2004 4:39

 

China's gross domestic product grew 9.7 per cent in the first quarter, exceeding consensus estimates and raising further doubts over the effectiveness of Beijing's effort to cool the economy.

 

The National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday that the country's GDP, which grew 7.9 per cent in the same period last year, had reached Rmb2,710.6bn by the end of March. Fixed-asset investment grew a staggering 43 per cent to Rmb879.9bn while the consumer price index went up by 2.8 per cent, compared with 0.5 per cent in the same period last year.

 

While GDP expanded less than the previous quarter's 9.9 per cent, anal cysts were forecasting growth of just around 9.2 per cent.

 

The latest data represented a setback to China's attempt to rein in runaway economic growth. Starting last summer, the Beijing government has issued persistent warnings against unrestrained bank loans and overinvestment in some industries.

 

The National Bureau of Statistics in a statement highlighted the large increase in fixed-asset investment as the government's primary concern.

 

"Fixed-asset investment is growing too fast. Efforts to control blind, low-level and over-lapping investment in certain industries and regions have not been effective. The situation is putting pressure on inflation and exacerbating 'bottle-necks' in raw material and energy supplies as well as transportation."

 

New figures have also shown that China's attempts to impose discipline on its banks have failed. Money supply, measured by the M2 measure, was up 19.1 per cent in the first quarter and loan growth rose by an annualised 21 per cent - far higher than the contraction of 13 per cent the central bank is aiming for in 2004.

 

Even wholly-owned state banks such as the Bank of China have failed to do the central bank's bidding. Their loan growth in the first three months was up nearly 10 per cent.

 

The Chinese cabinet on Monday had pledged to pursue further "macro-controls" to prevent the creation of asset "bubbles". On the same day, the central bank tightened monetary policy by increasing the ratio of deposits that financial institutions must keep at the central bank from 7 per cent to 7.5 per cent.

 

China's GDP soars higher-than-expected 9.7%

 

 

In China, Signs of an Overheating Economy

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/14/business...ess/14yuan.html

Nice to see that all the re-elect the bushman give aways has helped China.

It has put every person in the USA into more DEBT.

 

Take away from the future USA generations to give to China NOW.

 

Makes me SICK :cry:

[Guest]

As I mentioned yesterday, the thing to watch for with respect to reversing the move of the 10 Year Yield chart was a jobs related number that sucks. It needed to hit this morning to keep the 10 Year from blowing out of its range...and just like magic - we got it.

 

To be clear...until proven otherwise, this is a fully manipulated piece of shit...scripted in advance and played out in the media on a daily basis. The script is provided in advance to those who require either enrichment or rescue (FRE, FNM, and a few of the biggest pension fund players), so that they can be saved at the expense of other speculators.

 

The goal is to ensure that the market trades sideways in a channel for as long as it takes...possibly years. The goal is to kill speculators and enrich those who are on the list to be enriched. Whipsaw Theory.

 

Can anyone possibly explain why Ameritrade's web site has ONLY failed three times in the last two months on mornings when the futures were minus 50 or worse and the selling pressure at the open was relentless. Can anyone explain why the moment the S&P slide gets haulted (by 9:40) on each such morning...and then spikes up...the Ameritrade site immediately begins to function perfectly. Can anyone explain why this site has NEVER failed to work properly on days when there is no selling pressure?

 

How many more examples do we need to simply admit that there is in fact a conspiracy with a script that is being played out on a daily basis. Do you know what the economic news will be next week or next month? They do.

[DrStool]

Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit.

 

30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW!

[Lock Limit Down]

Silver massacre continuing

IBM being touted again

[Hiding Bear]

Regarding taxes, as you all know my Dad died last October after battling cancer for a year. For 60 years, he had religiously prepared his and my mom's tax return, paying every penny that he owed, never, ever looking for questionable deductions. He always followed both the letter and spirit of the law, not just in that, but everything he did in life.

 

One of the things he did, was to manually order their IRA distributions, every year. Uh oh. This was something I had thought that Vanguard did automatically. When I sat down the last few days to take care of my parents final joint return, that's when I found out that no distribution had been taken. Vanguard, which runs gazillions in IRA money told me, oh no, they do not do that automatically, the customer has to set it up.

 

BUZZZ! 50% Penalty assessed. That's right, the IRS penalizes you 50% of the required distribution for those 70 1/2 and over, if you forget to take it. In this case the penalty was more than my parents' adjusted gross income for the year. Fortunately, I was assured by IRS personel, that if my mother wrote a letter asking the penalty to be waived, and explaining the reasons, the IRS would send the money back. But the penalty has to be paid first.

 

Is this a crazy country, or what. I don't know which is worse, the fact that Vanguard, who I am really starting to hate, doesn't do this automatically, or that the IRS charges a penalty of half the required distribution.

 

So if you are getting to that age, make sure you set up your IRA's for automatic distributions. That way when you are gone, your survivors will not be stuck.

Also everyone should name a 'human' beneficiary for any retirement plan, if at all possible it should be your spouse to save on taxes. Your children also can be named benficiaries, but the best they can do is usually pay taxes on the distribution over five years (although other methods are allowed, those funds in the vanguard of mutual funds either don't know, don't allow, or mishandle more

complicated distributions).

 

Never name an estate your IRA benficiary unless you really don't care about the tax impact.

[Guest]

Nine trading days ago, we saw the "Biggest jump in new job creation in over a year."

 

This morning we saw the "Biggest jump in new unemployment claims in over a year."