linrom Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The problems begin when the construction is complete. Would will fill all those rooms? 651623[/snapback] Condos, but, don't tell anyone yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jetlag Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Doc you have been talking to the FED too much..... If the collateral was good it would be marketable.....If the collateral was bad it is illiquid. Its that simple. The problem is the system is so leveraged that the market's ass cheeks are squeezed so tight you could not get an ant to crawl up it. Some of what you speak of I agree with but I have to keep it very simplistic...either the collateral has value or it does not. The degree of value depends on the one making the bid. Right now the Fed is trying to support these bids. Without that we would be down 2,000 points. It is all perception and confidence at this point. If the public starting to withdrawal out of the system it would collapse regardless if the collateral is actually worth something 1 or 5 years from now. 651427[/snapback] Yup, the Fed is taking upon itself the task that the market isn't able to perform to a reasonable degree. In other words nobody is willing to price this crap for what it's worth(less), why does the Fed think that it can price it / know for sure that it'll be paid at maturity? A 99% haircut sounds reasonable to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Will that be good or bad for the SPX? You'll have to draw pictures with crayons so I can understand. 651610[/snapback] I would think that the price of all that cheap stuff coming out of China is going to take a big jump. I would think the volume spent on that stuff would start to decrease as the spent out Mericans' credit cards become more maxed out. I would guess that would be bad for the Spoozer but WTFDIK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Condos, but, don't tell anyone yet. 651625[/snapback] Condos or hotel rooms, if they are empty, what difference does it make? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Yup, the Fed is taking upon itself the task that the market isn't able to perform to a reasonable degree. In other words nobody is willing to price this crap for what it's worth(less), why does the Fed think that it can price it / know for sure that it'll be paid at maturity? A 99% haircut sounds reasonable to me. 651626[/snapback] They are just trying to keep the balls in the air. The big question is how long can they keep them going? http://www.metacafe.com/watch/3142/dan_men...piano_jugler_2/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 You expect him to say, you are fired when you do something that stupid. ``I say to our portfolio managers, when you buy something, make sure the credit quality is sufficient that we can hold it to maturity,'' said Jim Tisch, the CEO of CNA parent Loews Corp., in a March 6 interview. CNA's unrealized losses totaled $367 million. The Chicago-based insurer, which also posted realized losses of about $480 million in 2007, declined about 40 percent in the past 12 months http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2060110...xTUo&refer=home Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Who knows - what was the size of BSC bailout? My wild guess - should be around 10 bln. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 What an understatement from one of the main perps of this debacle. It sounds like he is fishing for a bailout. How he has hung on to his 20 mil /yr job is amazing Rubin Says Financial Markets Have Entered `Uncharted Waters' By Matthew Benjamin March 14 (Bloomberg) -- Former U.S. Treasury Secretary Robert Rubin said financial markets are in ``uncharted waters'' and the government may need to take ``substantial additional action'' to help homeowners. ``We are in somewhat uncharted waters,'' Rubin, chairman of Citigroup Inc.'s executive committee, said in a speech in Washington. ``The outlook for credit markets and the economy is uncertain'' and he called for ``substantial additional action in the mortgage area.'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Who knows - what was the size of BSC bailout? My wild guess - should be around 10 bln. 651631[/snapback] How do you come up with that figure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 I would think that the price of all that cheap stuff coming out of China is going to take a big jump. I would think the volume spent on that stuff would start to decrease as the spent out Mericans' credit cards become more maxed out. I would guess that would be bad for the Spoozer but WTFDIK. 651627[/snapback] The funny thing no, it doesn't. The competition is fierce. They usually have 10-30 different corporations producing almost identical things, some of them operating at loss an sponsored by government. The chinese have no choice but to swallow the weak dollar, they rather decrease the paychecks and do some layoffs. The interesting thing about supply-demand is that nobody pays damn interest to what the producer cost is. That does not affect the price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cwd Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 The funny thing no, it doesn't. The competition is fierce. They usually have 10-30 different corporations producing almost identical things, some of them operating at loss an sponsored by government. The chinese have no choice but to swallow the weak dollar, they rather decrease the paychecks and do some layoffs. The interesting thing about supply-demand is that nobody pays damn interest to what the producer cost is. That does not affect the price. 651634[/snapback] It doesn't until it does. That is kind of like escalating house prices in reverse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 Who knows - what was the size of BSC bailout? My wild guess - should be around 10 bln. 651631[/snapback] maybe more, depending on how tits-long leveraged they were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 How do you come up with that figure? 651633[/snapback] I recall few days ago Bear claimed that they have $17 bln cash. My guess is that the bailout must be about half of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roxy Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 I recall few days ago Bear claimed that they have $17 bln cash. My guess is that the bailout must be about half of that. 651637[/snapback] I also think that if that was 1 or 2 bln that would be immediately disclosed just to calm the markets - no big deal, just few bucks between friends. So it must be at least 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joe3pack Posted March 15, 2008 Report Share Posted March 15, 2008 some meaty resistance developing around SPX 1320. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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