soup Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 " The charts of all prior stock manias from 1721 in London thru Japan in 1989, clearly show that they always end with prices below their starting level. The current boom and bust cycle, the largest in world history, started near Dow 1000 and should end at a lower level some time in the distant future. When the ultimate bottom is reached, there will be a high level of general disbelief of investing in stocks and an almost empty Wall Street." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BartTheBear Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Fleck just threw short: I had been looking for a poor employment number today, and planned on getting aggressively short if the market was unable to ignore it. That action was corroborated by the outside markets as previously described. Therefore, I put on a pretty sizable short position in S&P futures, as opposed to individual stocks, because to my mind, it's "all one trade" at this moment. I don't know if I will be chased out of this trade first thing Monday morning, or if this is the start of a big winner and I will be adding to it. But it's the first time I have done anything quite so aggressive in well over a year. My hunch, and it's just an educated guess, is that this may finally be the exhaustion I have been looking for and thought we might have seen on a couple different occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Today was JUST FINE-hopefully we follow thru next week and I believe we will. The VIX and QQV both fell along with the market today-there is no fear out there-non-nada. That is the perfect set up for a steep drop which is overdue. I think we are going pretty close to 900 in the next few days and we could go a hell of a lot lower. Speaking of the VIX-the CBOE announced today they are setting up futures trading on the Vix and will be up and running by Sept.15th. Gaming the freekin Matrix who in hell would luv to trade futures on the VIX??? The Retirement ResolutionTrust announced today that U.S. companies are 1/2 a TRILLION $ underfunded on their pension plans and see a disaster in the making-they went on to say that all of the trusts funds have been used up to bail out defaulted funds and they themselves nneed a major transfusion of CASH to stay afloat. I have been pounding the table for weeks about how the record deficit combined with the tax cuts. the funding of IRAQ and Afghan Land are at critical mass. Now the PrezyDent is going on TV tomorrow to make his case for more money and more troops which ain't goin to sit well with the Sixpacks. Recks earlier post about Englands Foreign Secretary Jack Straw also begging for MORE TROOPS and talking of strategic failure if they don't get them echo Sen. McCains comments"Iraq is a mess". The Markets can't hold up without the mothers milk of money-Congress will fight Bush tooth and nail on increasing the deficit from here on in-we are indeed at critical mass-recovering economy-thats not what the unemployment numbers said today and not what Sleds layoff numbers say either-we are indeed at critical mass-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Speaking of Iraq spiraling out of control.... Here's the latest Bullhorning Announcement: WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush will make a televised address on both Iraq and the war on terrorism to the nation at 8:30 pm Sunday, the White House announced. The president thought this was a good time "to talk to the American people about our progress" in both Iraq and the ongoing war on terrorism, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. The spokesman added that there is no major new development that motivated the decision to deliver the speech. McClellan said the speech would be delivered from the White House, but not the Oval Office. ... i would short the living piss out of this ... ... shit ah reckon ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gruff Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 We're still in the trading range, HRFF will wager, gentlemen. This week was a FALSE alarm. It came up to the REAL resistance, then RETREATED. Betcha 1000 acts like a magnet in BOTH directions sans dramatic news one way or da UDDER. And the likelihood of dramatic news/surprises to the UPside diminishes with each pASS(_)_)ing day. anyone else around here thinking a steep plunge at any time in the near future a diSTINKed possibility? hmmmmMMMMM? sure doesn't seem like, with one or two exceptions, perhaps. Schaefer? HRFF followed him FUR a while and decided he was all over the map. Last time he read anything by Bernie it wuz a month or two ago and he was, at that point, if HRFF recalls correctly, warning a breakout could be 'false'. It must be a burden to be a public figure on Wall St. Seems NONE of 'em dare get TOO bearish, save Richard Russell who says what he thinks all the time. Most all the others, including a well known Seattle bear, seem to periodically to go out of the way to curry favor w the buy side. Wall St IS, after all, about raising capital, ain't it? Well? Ain't it? ? ? BARE, I'll take de UDDER side of yr bet... Betcha we see 1040~1089 (!) before we see 1000... Do ye accept de wager? YES or NO? LOL success! gruff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
An Ant Posted September 5, 2003 Report Share Posted September 5, 2003 Speaking of Iraq spiraling out of control.... Here's the latest Bullhorning Announcement: WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush will make a televised address on both Iraq and the war on terrorism to the nation at 8:30 pm Sunday, the White House announced. The president thought this was a good time "to talk to the American people about our progress" in both Iraq and the ongoing war on terrorism, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. The spokesman added that there is no major new development that motivated the decision to deliver the speech. McClellan said the speech would be delivered from the White House, but not the Oval Office. To make sure there is no island reversal on Nasty? How about tightning the noose? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Just so we're clear on the 'recovery' that's being trumpeted widely. You CANNOT have a sustained recovery without the creation of good jobs. Second, we've achieved a pace of sub-3% growth for the year despite excess goobermint spending that will top $600B this year. My source on that? The Treasury depatment web site which plainly shows the total debt to the penny standing at $6.228T on 9/30/02 and at $6.790T on 8/30/03 for an 11 month deficit of $562B. With one more full month of debt accumulation at the average monthly rate of $51B, you safely clear the $600B level.. So forget all that baloney about a $450B deficit. What we've got here is $600B in overspending to acheive an apparent $300B economic growth. These numbers tell that either the US Goobermint is very bad at spending money in a stimulative way (very possible) or their overspending was a 200% cover for a private sector shortfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...roup=Home&aol=1?Short in 1974 and cover in 2003, isn't that some kind of record I want the whole chart In my opinion, while Comstock has many interesting points - but they believe (or did believe) in general deflation - that is falling prices. Maybe they are fishing for FEED membership with that kind of talk. There seems to be a kind of consensus in Stooltown that precious metals and resource stocks provide an alternative against the overvaluations in the rest of the market. That kind of thinking would have helped them alot. Debt deflation as per Hypertiger, yes, housing price deflation, yes, consumer prices going down - not when the entire FEED says to worry about deflation, ignore "bubbles", and talks about easing until we get full employment. Brian4 - good rant, but so far GWB has gotten many spending bills passed by offering - guess what - other spending for those that don't agree with him. There seems to be one soultion for all problems, and eventually the taxpayers will revolt. P.S. Sphinxter - Yes $600 billion (which includes Social Security) for $300 to $400 billion in growth seems - well - where's Buddadropping when we need him? It could also be looked at in another way. If the deficit expanded by $300 billion in the last year and GDP expanded only a little more - then the government accounted for the growth in GDP. So where does growth come from this next year? By expanding the deficit another $300 billion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MyGoldenStool Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Anyone watching Crapload? He actually seemed pissed at the guy who is bearish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Oh really .. just watching Keith Obermans' "Countdown" program, he reported a Federal Reserve Board member ( a woman, can't recall the name) said that "those lost jobs added to the unimployment figures are permanate job losses and will not be relpaced". Oh man..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Bush is going to have to name a price for the next tranch of debt to pay for the Iraq adventure, finally. The $75 billion alloted in March is almost all gone. I don't think he will name a number Sunday, 60 to 80 billion will be what he has to ask congress for, but the talk will be a preperation for it. The only question is how he spins it. One avenue might be to let the World Bank and the IMF lend the money to Iraq. I only mention this because I saw two mentions of this today from reliable Party member/pundits. How it would work I have no clue. I can only guess the aim would be to keep it off the budget books. They are scouting for way to borrow the money on the promise of oil revenue. If they can do it under the name of the IMF instead of the US Treasury it will profide some political cover. I'd have thought by now that perhaps sentiment on Iraq and the administration in general, would have us into a bear funk. Half of me thought that anyway. The other half of me knows there can be no doubts in the minds of true believers. Not saying the mess there would cause the market to be going down but it would seem to be a perfect coincident factor, one among many which would lead us down. Talk is next years defict will be $600 bln. That seems to rise about $5 billion a month.Certainly potentially bearish for the political market, not to mention the bond market. I've noted often in the past that the 80's deficits coincided with the beginninf of the bond bull. The point being that supply was not a contraint on the bond market. Maybe this time it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Oh really .. ?just watching Keith Obermans' "Countdown" program, he reported a Federal Reserve Board member ( a woman, can't recall the name) said that "those lost jobs added to the unimployment figures are permanate job losses and will not be relpaced". Oh man..... Maybe this is the story - Casualties Of the Recovery (free registration may be required) The vast majority of the 2.7 million job losses since the 2001 recession began were the result of permanent changes in the U.S. economy and are not coming back, which means the labor market will not regain strength until new positions are created in novel and dynamic economic sectors, a Federal Reserve Bank of New York study has concluded. The findings by Erica L. Groshen, an assistant vice president at the New York Fed, and Simon Potter, a senior economist, will be sobering news to policymakers scrambling to reverse the longest hiring downturn since the Depression. The conclusions of the study, which was published last week, were underscored yesterday by two Labor Department reports showing a surge in corporate productivity even as work hours are plunging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
marmun Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 CME to Expand GLOBEX Electronic Trading Hours Beginning Sept. 29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pigeon Drop Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Anyone watching Crapload? He actually seemed pissed at the guy who is bearish. Yes, Kramer said at the end to the bearish guy: "I just have to say that when you come on Bull and Bear and you are vetted by me, you owe us a lot more than we got tonight from you. And I'd like to apologize to our viewers for that." They just couldn't take the fact the guy was bearish, even that he said AMZN and EBAY were overvalued. They then shut him up, got him off the air, and started pumping. "Look at NT, CAT, WMT, corporate America is turning optimistic for the first time. INTC has upgraded." etc etc etc These guys are total shills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alborz Posted September 6, 2003 Report Share Posted September 6, 2003 Speaking of Iraq spiraling out of control.... Here's the latest Bullhorning Announcement: WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- President Bush will make a televised address on both Iraq and the war on terrorism to the nation at 8:30 pm Sunday, the White House announced. The president thought this was a good time "to talk to the American people about our progress" in both Iraq and the ongoing war on terrorism, White House spokesman Scott McClellan said. The spokesman added that there is no major new development that motivated the decision to deliver the speech. McClellan said the speech would be delivered from the White House, but not the Oval Office. ... i would short the living piss out of this ... ... shit ah reckon ... Curious - why M.H? What's its significance to you? Seems just like the normal bullhorning that goes on all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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