Sasquatch Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 It seems logical to me that US markets will follow the bear path led by Japan. The Nikkei topped out at the onset of 1990 and crashed from 39000 in 5 waves ending in 1992 in Wave A. From 1992 to roughly 1996 the B-Wave took the index sideways in a 3-wave corrective structure. Since then the index has been declining in another 5-wave pattern which is Wave C. US markets started their bear a decade later and completed Wave A down in October 2002, which I measure out as the end of the 5th wave down. Since then we have been in the early stages of a B-Wave, so this could last a few years before US markets enter Wave C down. We should therefore expect to go in a sideways trading range at least until 2005. For those not familiar with Elliott Wave Theory, market corrections take the form of an ABC decline. There are several forms of corrective wave patterns, however the initial 5-wave decline in Wave A has determined that this bear correction is taking the form of a zig-zag, or a (5-3-5) wave structure whereby A=5 waves down; B=3 waves up/sideways; and C=5 waves down. Once a bear of this magnitude completes Wave C to the downside there should be a long period of consolidation (or flatline). This is why the idea of a 'renewed bull market' at any stage of this decline is totally misleading. I believe that the next 'bull market' may not begin during our lifetimes. In any event, to answer the question I think S&P will be somewhere above 650 and below 960 in March, 2003. LT Japanese Nikkei Chart.. Anyway you slice it, this bear is longterm and global, imho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted December 14, 2002 Report Share Posted December 14, 2002 Around SPX 768.63....give or take a few tenths :grin: Monthly chart: Of course, in real life.......Hurst cycles RULE! ...and fibos, while intriguing, are only secondary tools...imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted December 19, 2002 Report Share Posted December 19, 2002 Somewhere in the 600-675 range. Then Greenspan can put that in his pipe and smoke it. I base this on a number of things, including cycles, e-wave, and voodoo (some people refer to this as the "Bradley model"). AND I'm putting my money where my mouth is. Unless something changes, in mid-January I'll be loading up on June puts (just in case I'm a little early w/ March). I've been saying it for awhile: the next move is the one we'll be telling our grandkids about. But what the hell do I know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 1, 2003 Report Share Posted January 1, 2003 doc: the otherwise bell-curvish distribution of our responses looks like, well, a stool hitting the pavement - it's all squished at the bottom. over a third of us stoolies think the market will close at or outside of the available parameters. given how close our average was for dec 02, i'm very interested in our groupthink for mar 03, and i'd guess i'm not alone. i hate to suggest a do-over, but i'd love to see this survey with choices down to 450 or so. i bet if you dropped links to a new one in IDS & M2M for a few days, with a quick explanation and closing date, we could get even more participants and have the whole thing open & shut within a week. if i could do anything to help make it happen i'd be glad to. your $.02? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FeedFool Posted January 4, 2003 Report Share Posted January 4, 2003 I hope picture explains everything. Little more upside or may see double top in Jan-Feb then dribble down and the bounce to make the bull happy in Dec 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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