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B4 The Belll Frieday November 5


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:D Welcome to B4 The Bell! :D

 

We have entered a brave new world. No longer do any fundamentals matter to the market, only promises of new tax cuts and vast trillions of new funds to flow from a revised Social Security plan ?which will be funneled by the US government to Wall Street retirement accounts.

 

We have it direct from the President yesterday. Years of public discussion about budget deficits, heated political debates about federal financing, new budgetary restrictions, and yes even the US Constitution (concerning the apportionment of the budget deficit to the states) have been cast aside. Like some fashion statement, tax increases don?t suit the President?s ?style?:

 

If I'm going to -- you know, if there was a need to raise taxes, I'd say let's have a tax bill that raises taxes as opposed to let's simplify the tax code and sneak a tax increase on the people. It's just not my style. I don't believe we need to raise taxes. I've said that to the American people. And so the simplification would be the goal.

Presidential Press Conference

 

Never mind that every single dollar for the budget deficit plus trillions more for the new SS plan will have to be borrowed in the Treasury market.

 

Resistance is futile. Please pass the Soma.

 

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Dollah index quote

 

 

Live Gold Chart

 

Good Trading! ;)

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Doc said last night:

 

The USA is bankrupt. Only the subsidy of foreign central banks enables us to borrow all the money we need every month. That total keeps growing exponentially. Without Japan and China constantly increasing our credit line, throwing good money after bad as it were, this circle jerk could not continue. Eventually, it will not continue. There is a limit to how big a Ponzi scheme can grow.

 

The Financial Times mentioned on Nov 4 that this Japan/US circle jerk could go on forever. It can't. First eventually the Japanese will need all that money back for their retirees, but we still have maybe five years before that happens. Second the US current account deficit is growing much faster than the amount of new savings in Japan, and is already about twice as large. We are well beyond the point where the BOJ/MOF could singly rescue the dollar from any plunge. It took a very great effort even to hold it steady a few months. As time goes by, it will be more so.

 

The last two weeks again saw fast accumulation of dollars by foreign central banks - at a very high $500 billion annual rate - so they have by no means given up yet. Every time these FCBs intervene or just keep the dollars acquired in trade, they add to their domestic money supply to finance them - which leads back around to inflation. No matter what is done the result is the same - the dollar will still buy less.

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Republican Party Declares Victory in 2008 Election

Posted by bitter tonic on Thursday, November 04 @ 19:27:34 CST

 

Liberals infuriated but willing to talk terms

 

WASHINGTON, DC (MGB) - This morning in a bold move, Bush Chief of Staff Andrew Card appeared at Washington's Ronald Reagan Building and issued a statement in which the Republican Party claimed victory in the 2008 presidential election.

 

Although some political experts are claiming that the Republicans, who have not even provided a possible candidate for the next election, may be jumping the gun a bit, the GOP is unwilling to wait four years for the Democratic Party to concede.

 

http://madguerillabrigade.com/

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Posted last night in case you missed it.

 

http://www.commondreams.org/views04/1104-36.htm

 

Greg Palast : Kerry won. They just didn't count the Democratic votes

 

http://www.blackboxvoting.org/

 

Black Box Voting has taken the position that fraud took place in the 2004 election through electronic voting machines. We base this on hard evidence, documents obtained in public records requests, inside information, and other data indicative of manipulation of electronic voting systems. What we do not know is the specific scope of the fraud. We are working now to compile the proof, based not on soft evidence -- red flags, exit polls -- but core documents obtained by Black Box Voting in the most massive Freedom of Information action in history.

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Butter - tanks for the links. I learned that:

Paperless voting is a fraud. Diebold produced the vote count.

So ... we knew this three years ago or more.

So I figure that Kerry knew this too and

his job was to not contest it.

 

Seems like everybody thinks were going higher.

Makes me think' the top was in yesterday.

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This is not worth discussing any more -- not trying to start conversation on this, nor implying criticism of last night's discussion -- but wanted to clarify a fact from the purported IQ/voting "statistics" which claimed that Michigan had gone for Bush. Not true, it went Blue. Also, there is no way to measure IQ averages for a state -- just think of states like Minnesota, for instance, with high immigrant population (many Southeast Asian and Hispanic), none of whom have ever been tested -- and also, how exactly would they have access to, for instance, my IQ info from childhood testing in another state?

 

Please, I beg you, let's drop that topic here, at least until after the close.

 

On a much more important topic to all of us, Butterfield -- could you give us a crash course in how to convert our cash to other currencies? Is there some way to do it with a standard broker like Waterhouse, Schwab, Scott, etc.? I ask because I have had a couple of scary moments of internet outages and I only want to have accounts at a place I can physically walk into and do a trade if I have to. Any info you can give will earn you the thanks of a grateful Stool Nation -- or at least, mine.

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Thanksgiving Cometh

 

Pass Me That Leg, Please

 

Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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Long story here. IB will hold Canadian if you want. Stay away from Waterhouse, they screwed me and did not record the orders. To get into a Swiss or Lux bank you really need a million dollars. I am with Jyske bank in Copenhagen. small spread. great guys. you will love them. service is instantaneous. Only US bank for small accounts is Everbank World Markets. in St Louis. they are on Central Time and don't start trading until 8:30. spread is awful. US does not want you to own foreign currencies, so it is not easy. Citigroup has a 5% commission on foreign currency cash. I recommend having a European account which allows you to buy during the night. If there is a major drop, you have a better chance of moving quickly. I keep Everbank account for back up. I don't trade fx because I do not do anything on margin. So this is my only vehicle. Austrian banks will also buy gold for you, but storage is hugely expensive there and their bank ratings suck . I favor Denmark because they have an insurance program up to 46k US, high taxes, budget surplus, trade surplus. All of that made me feel safer putting money there.

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November 4, 2004 -- Writes the Wall Street Journal in today's lead editorial -- ". . Mr. Bush has been given the kind of mandate that few politicians are ever fortunate enough to receive. The voters expect him to use it."

 

So what's coming up and what can we expect? For one thing, we can expect enormous government spending and equally enormous deficits. For a starter, the Treasury just announced that the US government will borrow $147 billion for the first three months of 2004, This is a new quarterly record -- with much, much more to come. Here's something else to ponder -- Federal tax revenue was $100 billion lower this year than when President Bush first took office -- but spending was $400 billion higher.

 

If the Bush tax cuts remain in place, budget deficit over the next ten years could add up to $5 trillion. That could put the squeeze on what the Prez can do.

 

Aggravating the budget deficits would be slowing business, higher oil prices and, of course, the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan -- plus the "war or terror" in general.

 

As I see it, there are two "musts" in the immediate picture.

 

US short rates MUST be held at low levels. If short rates start breaking out to the upside -- it will be -- "fun's over."

 

US consumers MUST continue to buy, buy, buy. If consumers begin to cut back on their buying and start to save, it'll be a whole new ball game -- and not a pleasant one.

 

- Russell, yesterday

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