brian4 Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Thanks Stain-Good Work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 depends -- keep posting that chart. It is appreciated. Here are a few other things to think about from McHugh. McHugh's Forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 SJ It cant be said enough times.. The resources here are much appreciated. Dont know if this has been posted but an OUTSTANDING piece on foreign capital flow into the US. Unsustainable situation developing. The obsession with the fed is so misplaced. Really worth the read... http://www.contraryinvestor.com/2004archives/mojuly04.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tchaikofsky Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Shopping 'Till the Stock Market Drops 2 hours, 38 minutes ago By Dick Satran NEW YORK (Reuters) - The shop-till-you-drop consumers who have helped the economy through good times and bad are starting to show signs of weariness, and that's worrying Wall Street. With interest rates on the rise for the first time in four years, gasoline prices surging and tax refunds disappearing, consumers have less to spend. That's starting to translate into lower-than-anticipated retail sales, a distress sign for the stock market. "It's really happening at the margins. There are some issues surrounding consumer discretionary spending." said Jack Caffrey, equity strategist for J.P. Morgan Private Bank. "In housing and autos, consumers are pretty well sated." Nobody is predicting a collapse in the robust real estate market, though the Federal Reserve (news - web sites)'s move to increase rates this week could slow the industry's growth. The fortunes of retailers are closely tied to housing, in part, because home purchases and refinancings typically bring a burst of spending on big ticket items. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Another in my camp that thinks the fed won't be raising rates again anytime soon. This is the problem with relying on lagging data most of which is of very questionable accuracy and quality. The fed just raised rates after the economy already started rolling over, which should lead to an acceleration of the roll-over. Note, IMO this does not preclude a rise in longer maturities should global investors (often refered to as bag holders ) begin to take a dim view of the US for any number of and likely a combination of economic and political reasons. Uncle Buck should decline. But against what? There is no fundamental difference in any currency on the planet with the one exception of the $US being generally accepted as the reserve currency. I'm not sure any other currency on the planet has enough backing to take on that role for the time being. In essence, for now, we win by default. Once again there are tons of global bag holders, including most of the large central banks, out there owning massive quantiites of every type of our paper. They won't be too keen on having their assets rapidly deflate. So for me Uncle Bucky's immediate future is not a one way bet. Quite the morass, eh? In theory, no selling of our debt need occur if a simple drop in consumption of the new debt should happen. Prices would fall and yields would climb. Depending of the rate of price decline, selling might ensue with the possible snowball effect. Toss in a rapidly falling currency as a concurrent side-effect and we're looking at a disaster of global proprtions. What we would ultimately be talking about is the failure of governments world wide after the banking systems collapsed. You don't screw with peoples wallets to these extremes without getting revolutions. John Law gone global with the same outcome. The good news is I don't see that happening right away, though there is really no good reason for it not to with only the thin line of confidence binding things together for now. The boom was pretty much global, certainly on the financial side, and as such the bust will be too. I think we'll see a global depression in time, and not too much time at that. The demands of the credit machine have outstripped it's ability to generate sufficient credit. One last note about the Fed. In my view, the only reason that the dollar is not already going into the tank is because the other two major currencies - the yen and the euro - are themselves unexciting. After convincing many in recent months that its worst days were over, Japan now says it's not so sure after all that the deflationary grip of the last dozen years has been completely vanquished. Very telling today is that the yen did very little versus the dollar. As I mentioned earlier, the euro did enjoy a surge against the greenback; however, I view that as more of needing some place else to go (and the euro was the lesser of the evils) rather than anyone getting too charged up about the continent's currency in its own right. It will take a technical break-out in the euro's value to accentuate this trend; otherwise, we might very well see the euro flame out once more Forget About a "Neutral" Federal Funds Rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Navy Calls Up Retired Village People! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Doug Noland reporting that personal income is up 6% yoy. Not bearish - consumers can pay lots of debt service with income rising that quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 This looks interesting - for those who want for more desktop real estate. The sphereXP Caution - I have not tried it, but if someone has a spare computer to try it on maybe we can see if this is useful. click on screenshots and videos link and check the videos. http://www.hamar.sk/sphere/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 I spent most of June converting my short-term model into an overbought-Dover Sole oscillator and here is what it is telling me. Thursday's high of 1144 brought it up to the same level we saw back on April 5 -- short of the 64+ that historically is needed to trigger a sell-off but close enough, IMO, to call a top. This indicator I will dub the "SJ Oscillator" for lack of a more inspiring appellation. I believe this indicator could be a helpful complement to Depend's trend following chart. We'll see... SJ - cool If you are so inclined, I would be interested in the formula you developed for calculating your oscillator. I find that knowing how the calculation is done is essential in understanding what an indicator is "saying". If it's a secret and you don't feel comfortable revealing it - I understand, no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Credit Bubble Stalled Money Supply, Loans, Down Again Fed Releases update is now posted! Once a week Doc fills you in on the all important Fed weekly releases. Doc gives you his briefs on the charts of the Fed's most important money and credit measures. Take a subscribatory and download your Fed Releases RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Doug Noland reporting that personal income is up 6% yoy. Not bearish - consumers can pay lots of debt service with income rising that quickly. Noland is still pretty bullish, another refi wave on the way with lower rates. I think he's right. I'm following CFC, FRE, and FNM. All three are in uptrends, showing no weakness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 Reserve currency;if UK and Russia join the euro bloc,that's when it's curtains for Uncle Buck,until then... party on,dudes. IMO,another major factor is the basket pricing of crude,there should be some good rumblers if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mksloth Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 This looks interesting - for those who want for more desktop real estate. The sphereXP Caution - I have not tried it, but if someone has a spare computer to try it on maybe we can see if this is useful. click on screenshots and videos link and check the videos. http://www.hamar.sk/sphere/ the extra real-estate, if it comes, will come at a significant expense of CPU cycles. Looks to be the windows version of Looking Glass from Sun - nice idea, but far too far away to even begin to think in terms of potential... There are other virtual window managers and desktops that are cheaper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 MJ- I don't buy Nolands- "income up 6% year over year" that has to be a bogus number-most salaries are contracting not expanding and the same applies to the workforce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted July 3, 2004 Report Share Posted July 3, 2004 This looks interesting - for those who want for more desktop real estate. The sphereXP Caution - I have not tried it, but if someone has a spare computer to try it on maybe we can see if this is useful. click on screenshots and videos link and check the videos.? http://www.hamar.sk/sphere/ the extra real-estate, if it comes, will come at a significant expense of CPU cycles. Looks to be the windows version of Looking Glass from Sun - nice idea, but far too far away to even begin to think in terms of potential... There are other virtual window managers and desktops that are cheaper... I downloaded it on a spare...pretty neat. Its basically a 3D rendering engine/GUI enabling superimposition of screenshots of open programs and desktop icons. It manipulates these screenshots as textures pasted onto spatially manipulated panels. Being screenshots, the panels don't display real-time data. R/L/scroll mouse detection enables panel manipulation, as well as double-click re-entry into the "real world" Desktop again. Data feeds, applets (ie, Scottrade Streamer) are not functional and do not update on the 3D matrix. This minimzes its use for "virtual immersion" in the Stock market, as it were. Doesn't seem to slow anything down in the 15 minutes I've been using it. Good find. Would make a very poor computer game, but not a bad effort for a solitary programmer. Its also free. Also get a good "nesting doll effect" by opening a new Sphere program instance within an active sphere. This is helpful for working on business software at work, all the while hiding under a larger shell containing all your casino and porn sites. The sick mind marches on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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