DrStool Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 It's not a secret that a 6-7 week cycle upturn was due. Subscribers knew it, and non-subscribers heard it in Doc's interview last week. The warnings were there. Whether a stoolie covered his shorts or not depends on his time horizon. A 10-13 week cycle trader who shorted at the top can afford to hold off until the evidence is in that the cycle has turned. I am oriented toward that cycle. Others may have a shorter focus. They should have covered. We all have the answers when we are looking over our shoulder at the past. Hindsight is 20-20. Saying, "I told you so", as I saw in another thread here, doesn't help anyone. Makes me think that person has a chip on his shoulder. People on this website adopt the persona they want to. We are all actors in a play. If you don't like some of the characters, that tells me more about you than about them. Some of us need a little more of a sense of humor. Some of us need to understand that we are all playing characters on this board. Some of us just don't get it. For instance, the leader of this mess is Dr. Stepan N. Stool, the stock proctologist. Is that a real person? If you want to take that character seriously, you need your head examined. Why would you judge any character here as if they were real? As in any art form, you may find truth here, but you need to understand that the essence of the site is theater. It is a representation of reality as the characters see it. Reality is relative, isn't it? Life imitates art, right? If you blindly follow the suggestions of another of your fellow stoolie characters without a full understanding of and agreement with their methods and madness, that is your responsibility. The purpose of this site is to have fun, express ourselves, and share what we know. If you are blindly following another person's ideas, then you will get blindsided at some point. If you have ideas of your own that you wish to share with us, I strongly encourage that. But if you choose not to share, and then come and whine that no one is listening to you, that is petty. It is less than worthless. All of us run hot and cold as prognosticators and as traders. We have good weeks and bad. That's a fact of the game. We don't need people telling us, I was right and you were wrong. There are times when the tables will be turned. My suggestion would be that you let all of our various and sundry characters be ok as they are. Don't tell them how they should be. You don't like an opinion, feel free to give us yours without criticizing them, either directly or obliquely. I am very good at ferreting out the oblique, the passive aggressive attack. I will find those and expose them for what they are. The one role that does not need to be played here is the one of Judge of your fellow stoolies. Judge the market. Call it as you see it. Allow others to do the same. Say what YOU think, but do not criticize the approaches of others. If the market drops 200 points on Tuesday or Wednesday, then what will you say? I know damn well who these negative comments are directed at. That person has my absolute support. His style is unique. It's fun. He sticks his neck out day after day. No hedging, no bullshit. His exuberance is a joy to behold. If he falls, I am sure he will get up, dust himself off, and get going again. He has been nothing but honest and forthright. If he's loud, so what. That is his character. In real life he may be shy and unassuming. But here, he's a fun presence. There is another literary genius here who expresses himself with a great big red paintbrush. He makes some people really angry. I like his shtick. His power with words is undeniable. I sure don't like some of the things he says, but his literary genius is a joy to behold. Take those remarks of his with which you disagree, with a grain of salt. Learn to laugh with him. There is a kernel of truth in almost everything he writes. This site is about much more than just daytrading. This is a bear site because we are in a secular bear market until proven otherwise. This is a bear site because we care about the rot that infects our market and our financial system. We want to see the wrongs righted. We want to see a return to sanity. It's about morality. While all of us recognize that markets will never be moral places, we would still like to make the effort to help in some small way to clean up the cesspool that they have become. If you are not comfortable with this orientation, you are probably better off on a different website. Capitalstool is about more than just daytrading. It's about the theater of the financial markets. Love it or leave it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Can I get an AMEN!??? And for the record... my vision IS CLEAR, it just got fuzzy in the short term.... this retracement is perfectly normal. My time horizon is not one week... its several weeks on this move... and with that said... FWIW... here is my Saturday Morning NDX-QQQ take... now that I finally got back to my Simple Guy approach and stepped off the monitor a few feet... it ALL MAKES SENSE NOW Sometimes you get too engrossed in mini-waves... and in doing so I violated some of my own original principles when I became the Simple Guy... So, Simple Guy stood back from his monitor this morning, and took a view of the NDX chart again... and suddenly... my vision became clear once again. Work with me people-- Jan 13-14 top of minor wave 2 at 1104 NDX, wave 3 starts. 1104 to 1000 is wave 1 of 3 1000 to 1039 is wave 2 of 3 (38% retrace) 1039 to 938.xx (ended this week) wave (1) of 3 938.xx to 1000 (a 61.8% retrace) is wave (2) of 3 1000 to a coming 832 (161.8% of wave 1) is (3) of 3 That 832 is 20.67 on the QQQ... which is a target I had many weeks ago... with all the ST hysteria, I lost focus. SG believes we should see 1000 ish sometime soon on NDX, which is about 24.84... but 25.02 is really possible also (give me a few points leeway here)... its the SG approach So... in summary... this retrace is normal... caught some peeps off guard.... but my overall vision is still fine... I just lost it temporarily in the short term gyrations. I have to remember, Im supposed to be the SIMPLE GUY OFF the SIMPLE GUY WAVES THREAD For those who may make fun of me... not a problem. I got thick skin, and my positions are still QUITE profitable year to date thank you.... Watch and see the next move... and then those who laugh, can cower back into the corner. Stoolies Rule! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Darkdoc Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Both Doc and Simple Guy.... You both have my complete respect for your continued devotion to this site, for the courage and boldness you repeatedly display in making your statements and market predictions, and for the obvious years of experience and knowledge you are so unselfishly willing to share with us. It has been the least expensive, while being one of the most memorable and valuable, educational experiences I have ever had. It is one of the most important and noteworthy uses of the internet I've seen... Comments about these two men started this thread, but there are numerous other regular posters and columnists (Mark, Vesselin, rog, yobob, richmtn, Glad, BB, Feedfool, and on and on) about whom I could say the same things. The amount of shared knowledge from so many on this site is just extraordinary. My gratitude is unlimited, any criticism non-existant. Disagreement can easily exist without generating criticism. And best of all, this site is fun, just like it is meant to be... I just want to say thank you, and I am certain I am saying that for many, many other stoolies. Love it or leave it?? Iloveitalot!! Crap! And here I promised myself I wouldn't get all gooey and mushy and emotional... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrHanky Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Bravo doc! That should be your disclaimer to access the site. I would never follow anyone's opinions blindly,I listen to all the stoolies and add it to my current knowledge about the markets to make a decision.I would never fault anyone for a decision that is mine. Everyone here can look at the same chart and see something totally different.I guess the more you have at risk,the more you have to watch these squeezes and decide if you should cover"just in case". It goes both ways here,when the dow got back over 8800,many thought we would go alot higher.using those opinions I decided to wait for one last pop.Before you know it we dropped 400 points before I finally put my shorts on.The final decision was mine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 One of the strangest things about this site is how little anyone pays attention to Doc's take on things. Now partly that is I suppose people not talking about it too much so as to give away free on the threads what we pay our few little pennies to get in the anals. Still, that Doc is routinely, even totally ignored, seems more than a bit odd. The first rule of any web 'community' (I hate that term since the comminity is so damn artificial) should be just ignore what you don't like. That goes triple for politics. I was up 20% since Jan. 1, before yesterday. Using my gut, Doc, SG and a few others I went big short USPIX on 1/7 & 1/9, got out for a few days around 1/21, then back in. I told myself Sunday I was going to get out this week, but didn't. Why? Vanity really. Trying to catch the big one. With all deference to SG I thought it was just getting a bit too easy for him, and me. A little pain and doubt was due. That isn't news. I made a consious decision to discount the 6-7 week cycle. Hoping like Doc himself it might just be a blip. Still, he did his job, he warned. Now if Doc's IT cycle fails that will be news. Still, trading it, barring 300 point gap up, means at worst about break even. (by trading I mean not letting a gain turn into a loss. In other words getting out) Besides, the decisions were and are always my own. Why anyone assigns responsibilty to others for their own decisions puzzles me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 I ain't leaving...nothing but respect and admiration here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Jorma: I also noticed Doc gets sorta ignored a bit. I have a bit of a difficult time with some of Docs' analysis---No offense Doc I often do not "get" the signal he's sending, and like with yesterdays rampola , I go back and re-read the anals, and then realize the signal was there. I assume the problem lies with me .But honestly I do not see people posting that a turn or a ramp is imminent based on Docs' work. Perhaps I am not the only one missing Docs' signals. Doc.------Are you getting any feedback saying your signals are hard to work with or unclear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 When I lay it on thick it is either time to cover or die... the market is in milking mode... Whats that? You are all being milked for every last drop that can be milked... When this all comes to it's sad conclusion the banking system will be in a shambles and the economy will be in ashes... And many more of you will be victims... in the next 14.5 -19.5 months enough people will comprehend this to cause the point of recognition and wild cornered animal stage to show up... the screens will go blank and when they come back on they will be flashing "tilt" and everyone will be broke... The insiders will duke it out for the last crumbs... A 1000oz of physical Silver is an insurance policy (Savings) that is pretty cheap now... Saving for a rainy day? it could rain for months even years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Amen. Well said Doc. Your site is both amusing and informative, and with the world in crisis, now is not the time to get hung up on little things people say. Atempting to trade stocks on a short term basis is a very high pressure affair, which I will glady leave to you professionals. I'm happy checking into the Stools when time allows in my job, or at other oddball times when it doesn't. There is so much good information offered here on a dailiy basis it is almost too much to comprehend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 EXACTLY Doc! This "nah, nah, nah, I told ya so...I saw this coming, blagh, blagh blagh " crap has got to go. Those who don't like certain things about this site can simply hit the road. We talk about the markets, not each other and there will be no problems...period. Now on to the markets... Rally should be a short lived one in my book because cycles and IT indicators are progressivley pushing down harder with each passing day. Even though it is hard to perceive (b/c we are still in the early stages of accelerating rolloff from the MAJOR top set in Dec/Jan), the pace of upswings is progressively becoming shorter and shallower with each passing one. That's how third waves typically unfold. It tricks many out of their positions, and they miss the entire move. Having the courage to be rich means having the courage to stay with the entire primary move. The primary move is still a work-in-progress Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormydaze Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 IDS, What it means to us and what it really means, one and the same? This is just the perspective of an IDS lurker. Me, MySELF, and Frued Soul, Atman, Brahman, ID, ego, superego====THE SELF!!!! The self is one of the most important aspects of study in most all civilizations. People in many civilizations, have for years, been in "search of the self". Several psychologists, such as Frued and Jung, have devoted much of their time to the study of the self. Several religions are also devoted to the discovery of and appreciation of one's self. The self seems like the eternal striving flame of a person. The romanticism period portrays the self in a variety of ways. The romantic literature, music, and paintings usually display the artists idea of or understanding of the self. There are seven typical characteristics that represent the author's beliefs. These characterisitcs are hints at the author's identity. The first of these characteristics is value, which shows intuition and emotion. Inspiration and tone are two other of the romantic characteristics. The tone of a romantic work shows the artist's idea of self when it is subjective and emotional. Color and subject are two more romanticism key characteristics. When color is unrestrained, deep, and rich, it shows the artist's personality. The two final key characteristics are technique and compostion. Technique thats shows contrast between strong and light shades hint at the artist's strive for self discovery. Artists in the romantic era study the self with the use of the key characteristics of romantic art. Psychologists, such as Frued, Jung, and Rilke, devote their studies to the self. Frued is the most famous psychologist. His contributions have been studied by several followers. Frued divides the self into the three sections, the ID, the ego, and the superego. The ID is the instinctive animal part of the self. This is the part of the self that wants, wants, wants! The ego is the equalizer of the self. The ego serves as a balance between the ID and the superego. The superego is the moral aspect of the self. The super ego insists on always doing what is right. My self portrait reflects the beliefs of Frued. My self portrait , which is divided into past, present, and future, is also divided into the ID, the ego, and the superego. The section of my past represents the ID because most people grow out of the "I want" stage. The present represents the ego because my present balances whats happened in the past and what I want to happen in the future. Finally, the future represents the superego. The future aspect of my project displays my ultimate goal of reaching heaven. This signifies the moral strength of my superego. I strongly agree with some of Frued's psychological beliefs of the self. Regards, Stormy http://www.faculty.de.gcsu.edu/~dvess/ids/.../s20/stu8sp.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Back on one of Docs interviews I posted that, following the charts as Doc spoke brought them to life. It was amazing with Docs "if you look here" or " notice thats" the anals took on a whole new dimension. The clarity was intense to say the least. It was this experience that enabled me to see the simple genius of his work. I dont know about others....but finding the stool "saved my butt". Handholding was not my objective. Truthful information to help me "make my own decisions" was the objective. Besides doc you get the bonus prize. A renegade collection of truth seekers know as "Stoolies" Doc has his disclaimer.......He makes no claim to perfection. All he does is post his work. His work and his site have gathered some of the best TA people and traders on the planet. Seems silly to ask for more than that. Good luck to any that think they can find a better site than the Stool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 ...and for those who like to bash others when they are finally "right" and the other guy is finally "wrong"... "Precise timing can humble the best of market technicians; stay with the primary trends!" - Mike Hartman, FinancialSense.com Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boy Plunger Posted February 15, 2003 Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Perfectly put, Doc. How ANYONE can criticize Doc, SG, or anyone else here is beyond me. Of course it's easiest to follow SG- he says "market goin' down!"- surprise- down it goes. But if it goes straight up, SG didn't steal your money. His money is on the line too- he calls every one of his trades and stands by his story. Doc tends to hedge a bit- I guess anyone with 20 years of calling the market probably learned that this is the key to longevity as a prognisticator. And if he doesn't know, or is wrong, he lays it out on the line. I used to follow Strategic Investments. Winning trades were posted. Losing trades vanished from the portfolio every quarter and only the long-timers ever knew that Davidson was losing his butt. When the site said WITC up 100% in a week, you didn't see the other 10 shorts that lost 30% that same week for a net loss. I consider this site a wonderful resource- kinda like a Chinese buffet. Take as much as you wish of the dishes you like- leave the rest. But don't spit in the egg foo yung because you don't like it. Someone else might. No one knows what's gonna happen tomorrow and if you put all your money on someone's prediction and the trade goes wrong- hey, without this site, you'd have probably lost it anyway buying magic beans. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted February 15, 2003 Author Report Share Posted February 15, 2003 Ned- Not really. As far as hedging what I report, I think I'm reflecting the market's indecision. When cycles are going against one another this is what you get. I think if you go back and read the issues from early January, it was pretty clear at that time that I said follow the turn in the 6-7 week oscillator here because this looks like an early top in the 10-13 week cycle. I don't tell people, get short now, or cover short now. I rather try and report on cycle conditions. As Piles has often said, in between the big intermediate signals everything else is noise. If you choose a cycle to trade, and move quickly when the oscillator for that cycle turns, whatever happens between that signal and the reversal signal should be ignored. It is never a good idea to try to jump on or off a moving train. If you miss one, wait for the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.