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March Madness Failure?


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TE, re-formatting won't do the trick. You're going to need to WIPE your hard drive if you have sensitive information that you don't want anyone to recover, ever. Reformatting doesn't prevent that. There are programs that will erase or wipe the drive with different/varying levels of security. DoD is one of th highest.

 

Take your Q to your local puter shop. You will need to run a wipe/erase program off another drive to do a thorough job is HRFF's GUESS.

 

IOW a reformatted HD still has recoverable data to a determined data retriever.

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The BARE hASS been yapping FUR days if SNOT weeks about a probable efFURt by Da Boyz to hold at 8000 at all costs.

 

Obviously the public won't panic at that level. Anything much lower than that, and...., well.....

 

draw your own conclusions!

 

Use oil and paint! No chiaruscuro (sp?), pleez.

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Tanks. That is what I plan on doing, in that I want to transfer all things from old to new and then exponge the data from the old system.

Take a look at http://www.destroy.com.au

 

Supposedly the program not just simply earsing your hard drive but it rewrites on it 7 times to make sure no one can retrieve whatever information you used to have in it.

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Greetings Stoolizens:

 

After lurking for months, I have paid the good doctor his due, and this is my innaugural posting:

 

While it has been said that the "Market is the Economy" - and of course it is...a twist on that might be that the "Housing Market Is The Economy"

 

On Sunday I was finally compelled to compile many of my thoughts in a rant - which I in turn sent on to most of my friends and family just to ruin their day. Truth be told, each of you have done your best to protect your loved ones from the ugliness ahead - and it was my turn to be the guy that everyone will think crazy, until proven otherwise.

 

The following is said rant:

 

Friends:

 

If, as I suspect, we are within 3% of peak price appreciation in housing nationally - the headlines about which will be plastered across newspapers this summer, the realization that one's home might actually decline in value will result in a glut of inventory hitting the market at once - eventually leading to fire sale prices, driving a reverse trend in real estate - The Race To Downsize.

 

You're thinking "no way, with all of the cheap money available for mortgages, prices will just keep going up." Sounds like the thinking behind the "Wealth Effect" at the height of the tech stock boom. Keep in mind, tech stocks didn't crater for a lack of available money to invest. They cratered because - despite everyone's inflated opinions of their own worth - everyone rushed

for the exits at the same time. An unfortunate night club fire comes to mind as an example...and if you need another, refer to any stock chart over the past three years.

 

And you're also thinking to yourself:

"Yeah, but housing is different...everyone still needs a place to live." That's true. Everyone seemingly needed to own tech stocks too - and to the greatest extent - over 50% of us still do. It's also true that our investments are likely worth 50% to 70% less than they were before the rush for the exits.

 

The great debt burden of home equity loans will become the millstone around the necks of individual US consumers - the very ones who own the homes, pay the ever-increasing taxes and insurance and health care costs, own stock in the US equity markets - and until recently were the fuel for the entire global economic boom.

 

People have been "investing" in homes the exact same way they invested in tech stocks during the boom. I've personally made a 23% per year return on investment every year for the past five years - owning homes for two years, and flipping them for a tax free profit. If that's not an unsustainable bubble, I don't know what is. Is your house just a dot-com that you're living in?

 

In the same way that cocktail party chatter was all about the unbelievable paper profits in tech stocks at the turn of the century, today's cocktail party chatter is ALL about the unbelievable value increases witnessed in neighborhoods like yours all around the country.

Do you get it? The only way to realize a gain is to sell.

 

If your home stops appreciating in value, what incentive will you have to put more money into it? What incentive will there be for new housing starts? Is the home improvement boom over? If so, what ripple effect will it have through the entire global economy? If your neighborhood suddenly sprouts a surprising abundance of For Sale signs (and For Rent signs) this spring - will the race to get out before your neighbor lead to lower sale prices. What do you think?

 

Something's going to have to give. While it's already happening in many markets in the US - the reality will hit California last, and therefore most dramatically (much of California's housing market is still in a red-hot boom). If you think the states are having a difficult time making budgets balance now, wait until the local tax assessor has to reappraise homes based on depreciating values in various markets around the country.

 

If the federal Government is bent on cutting taxes - and the states are essentially going bankrupt for lack of tax revenues to keep the machine running - and people are experience pay cuts rather than increases - and job losses rather than hiring...where will the money come from to pay for the police, the schools, the prisons, the roads, etc.? What happens when prisoners are released into the streets for lack of state funds to keep them locked-up? It's already happening. There is only

one source of funding for the whole machine...it's you and me.

 

Look around your neighborhood. How many brand new zero-down, zero percent interest cars do you see? If your two biggest investments (your home and your car) start depreciating in value and your ability to borrow against your home goes away as lenders tighten their lending practices (they already are), where does that lead? The recent "New Car Giveaway" led to a short term pop in car sales - but at what cost? US auto

manufacturers are toast - having essentially borrowed from future sales to pay today's extraordinary unfunded pension liabilities.

 

The only thing that can save them is a weaker dollar - making imports more expensive on a relative basis.

 

How many repossessed cars and homes will be sold at auction in two years? Which lenders will be the bag-holders on these loans? Which airlines, auto manufacturers, banks and insurers are "too big to fail"? Answer: None.

 

If GM declared bankruptcy, how many people's retirement benefits would go away? If the stock market washes out, what will it cost you? Where is your retirement money? In the Social Security Lock Box? There isn't one. There is no money there in the future if events unfold badly.

 

The party is over. What's left is the stench of cigarettes and stale beer from the night before, and of course, the caterer's bill to pay. Remember when there used to be something in the US called the Wealth Effect? The only people experiencing it now are mortgage pimps. Six and seven figure salaries to write loan applications? Does that sound sustainable to you? Stock brokers got rich off the tech bubble - and are now being laid off at a frantic

pace. Tell me again how the housing bubble will be so different for the mortgage brokers?

 

The real unemployment problem in the US is MUCH worse

than our government is acknowledging. Companies are only making their numbers by cutting costs (head count), and we cannot shrink our way to prosperity. You will continue to hear positive (false) economic numbers released by our government - frequently at the exact same time that a "real" negative number is released about jobs, growth or housing...all in an attempt to

keep the stock market from falling completely out of bed.

 

When China starts producing Intel chip knockoffs, and dumping them on the market at a fraction of the cost of Intel's (they are/will), will we go to war over it? Our manufacturing base is gone, and China holds our dollars. Where will this lead?

 

I sold my house and I'm going to rent, and invest in some gold. Read the following and decide if it sounds plausible to you.

 

Tom Martin

Market InSite

 

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/854232/posts

 

 

Having sent that out on Sunday...

 

Here's a timely news item just released re: GM - here come the layoffs...and the fear.

 

GM's U.S. Feb. vehicle sales fall 19%?(GM)?By Tomi Kilgore

General Motors (GM) said U.S. vehicle sales fell 19 percent from year-earlier levels to 333,572 in February, citing poor weather and uncertain economic conditions. Overall car sales for the month fell 16 percent to 144,618 and truck sales dropped 21 percent to 188,954. The stock, a component of the Dow industrials, is slipping 37 cents, or 1.1 percent, to $33.41.

 

Glad to see you back in form Mark...you're the reason I joined!

 

Plunger

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I usually get a feeling just when it looks like gameoverville is about to start...

 

We need a slaughter tomorrow for this thing to have legs...

 

The only thing missing from this time is the "yee haw party atmosphere" of the Bears over the bulls... So tomorrow could be a real stinker the only thing that I've seen or herd lately as a reason as to why the markets will go up enough to bloody the bears is the "War rally"

 

There better be a war tomorrow or things are going to start getting ugly...

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This market is no joke anymore. I'm just treading water on my QQQ puts, and taking hits on my precious metals and commodities funds. Cash, dear Stoolies, is king. I hate to say it, but I suspect that this market will finish by gutting everyone. I believe that Merciless did the right thing when he just cashed out. In the end, he may well be the last man standing.

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Anyone have any insight on PMPSX? It's a 150% leveraged long gold ProFund. Coming into some bread from the sale of my house - and eyeing the gold market for the turn. Having been hosed by RGLD today, it seems a wise approach to consider a basket of stocks. If the Stool hits the fan - will the ProFunds remain solvent so I can collect my winnings at the pay window?

 

Any thoughts?

 

Plunger

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