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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Simmering stodge


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The last secular bear market in gold lasted 21 years. This one started in 2011.  

I would highly doubt a secular bear market in gold would last that long. The following chart resembles a major bottom forming rather than a continued slide into the abyss. The strength in the US Dollar seems to be playing havoc on the world markets. 

Screen%2BShot%2B2017-12-14%2Bat%2B8.58.5

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I would highly doubt a secular bear market in gold would last that long. The following chart resembles a major bottom forming rather than a continued slide into the abyss. The strength in the US Dollar seems to be playing havoc on the world markets. 

Screen%2BShot%2B2017-12-14%2Bat%2B8.58.5

 

 

1195-1200 is obvious key level. If it falls, bearish confirmation. Cycle work says best odds of a major cyclical bottom are in Q4.  

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1195-1200 is obvious key level. If it falls, bearish confirmation. Cycle work says best odds of a major cyclical bottom are in Q4.  

This seems to set up well for a major market event sometime around mid term elections. Would imagine that is when the cycle turns for commodities relative to financial assets. At the same time the retail investor has no interest in precious metals, similar to around the 2000-2001 timeframe. This is coming at a time when currency/systemic risk is starting to become a real issue again. I think your liquidity analysis is painting the perfect picture. Sometimes markets can stay irrational longer than we think. 

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This seems to set up well for a major market event sometime around mid term elections. Would imagine that is when the cycle turns for commodities relative to financial assets. At the same time the retail investor has no interest in precious metals, similar to around the 2000-2001 timeframe. This is coming at a time when currency/systemic risk is starting to become a real issue again. I think your liquidity analysis is painting the perfect picture. Sometimes markets can stay irrational longer than we think. 

 

Gold could  be a liquidity sink for the dollar short squeeze as dollar debtors sell anything they can get their hands on to get dollars. 

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Gold could  be a liquidity sink for the dollar short squeeze as dollar debtors sell anything they can get their hands on to get dollars. 

Good point. However,  I would think that the stock market would be a deeper source of liquidity.There is not nearly enough physical gold out there for debtors to fund their dollar short squeeze.  Especially when the price of gold is collapsing. Would think a default would be more in the cards if can not find enough dollars. Why would emerging market countries sell off strategic assets when the debt burdens may never be able to be paid off? Would be easier to walk away. Similar to the US mortgage crisis.

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