machinehead Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 CBS.MW -- Dollar gains on Monday came in part amid expectations for a relatively upbeat U.S. employment report due for release Friday, although most economists were warning that September's hurricanes could skew the data. Oh, I get it. We're supposed to maintain this happy pitch of hysteria all week long, until the 'upbeat' employment report on Friday. Somebody's scamming us here, that can't be right ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 XNG now green Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted October 4, 2004 Author Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 Repo madness - The Fed drains out $2.5 B in total repos, and at the same time reduces agency repos by $1.1 B. No fear here. They are making money tighter than I expected. The NABE, which includes the thoughts of some former Fed members, looks for a strong economy. They also see much higher long term rates. NABE Survey: US Soft Patch Over, Econ On Firmer FootingDOW JONES NEWSWIRES October 4, 2004 9:15 a.m. By Grainne McCarthy Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES NEW YORK -- After slowing earlier this year, the U.S. economy is poised to return to a stronger growth path as it shakes off the weight of higher energy prices, according to a new survey from the National Association of Business Economics. "After a soft patch in the spring quarter, the economy appeared to find firmer footing this summer," said Duncan Meldrum, NABE president. "Fortunately, our panel expects the expansion to gain additional traction over the second half of this year and advance at a solid pace in 2005." The October 2004 NABE outlook, a survey of 38 professional forecasters, downgraded the organization's U.S. growth forecast to 4.3% from 4.7% from its last survey in May. For 2005, the economists look for gross domestic product growth of 3.7%. "Residential investment is expected to decline modestly next year, but that drag on overall growth will be more than offset by an expected narrowing of the trade deficit, as real net exports are expected to rise roughly $20 billion from 2004 to 2005." The economists predict the price of West Texas Intermediate, the crude deliverable against the benchmark Nymex futures contract, falling to $40 a barrel by the end of this year and $35 at the end of 2005. In other forecasts, the NABE survey pits the 10-year Treasury yield at 5.50% toward the end of next year. It also expects the Treasury yield curve - which plots the relationship between Treasurys of different maturities - to steepen through the rest of this year "as recent sharp declines in long-term yields begin to unwind." The economists expect the yield curve to flatten next year as additional Fed rate hikes are implemented. http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,BT_CO_200...ticle%2Dbody%29 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 On Friday Lead hit an all time High-Gee I wonder why! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 The market loves the downside surprise in the Factory Orders data- new highs across the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lucid and confused Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 It's all just a game, boys and girls...this is what happens on a 10 cent charge: http://139.142.147.221/StockChart_ImageOnl...NX&ref_rate=180 Move due to realization that the charge was less than expected.....? Hurricanes just like rising oil prices are good for the market, might those trends be symptomatic of 'climbing a wall of worry' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 Repo madness - The Fed drains out $2.5 B in total repos, and at the same time reduces agency repos by $1.1 B. No fear here. Wouldn't a logical interpretation of that data be that the FNM scandal is not going to be an issue? I assume that the Fed knows more about it than we do, and if they aren't scared, why should we be scared (or hopeful )? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 They brought the Cash Spoo right to the pivot and so far have failed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 Fed Funds punters (which include many banksters and carry traders) continue to see a fourth hike to 2.0% as a slam-dunk certainty at the Nov. Fed meeting: http://tfc-charts.com/marketquotes/FF.html "Four humps and a slump." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 10,280 is a fibo .786 retrace if we get over that it is time to worry conversely it could be over now or in the next few minutes, critical time right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
flockofsheeples Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 On Friday Lead hit an all time High-Gee I wonder why! all the bears putting bullets in their heads? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 Somebody's scamming us here, that can't be right ... The same could be said of nearly every piece of news and economic information reported over the past year. The Ten Year requires a horrible jobs number - and this is the pump in advance of the reversal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 bearish. Wake me up when the spoos trade int riple digits, I am off to read the sports page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purdymouth Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 RUT tops previous high higher highs maybe it will be time to short it when it makes new highs for the year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 4, 2004 Report Share Posted October 4, 2004 that window now closed went there way and now the market is coming off of iits own accord, this could get real interesting. The Pig is on its own for a bit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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