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SOAKING UP ALL THOSE LOOSE US DOLLARS

 

"The Treasury ought to get out there and buy these unwanted dollars in the marketplace. Just go out there and bid for them. And they need to stop printing so much debt from Congress."

 

huh.gif bid for them with what? their good looks?"

 

 

The whole point of the current system is too produce excess US dollars which the chinese have to soak up and recycle into trasheries.

 

Its how the US consumptionist/bialout economy is financed.

 

But the chinese are losing faith and switching into gold :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

 

The system is breaking down

 

The real shorting opportunities are in US$ and trasheries

 

Not so much in stocks - at least for the moment

 

But keep a watching brief there.

 

Once the interets rate increases and tax increases hit after the chinese abdicate the prime bagholder spot i think stocks could get a nasty sell off.

 

The simple fact is the abusive relationship between china and america - the rich businessman keeps needy mistress relationship - is over.

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AS sector anal cyst in our sector, we have recommended XLP as a underweight sector until the top or a option of overweight sector if we trend to a double dip. I traveled from gainesville,fl to Louisiana and noticed a noticeable difference in the economic demand from the southern states. In mobile, the structural demand of new ships was dead. The structural advances of florida roads and the roads are dead.. I travel for the florida gators, but i believe that our football program will build smaller programs.

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Can someone please explain to me what he means by this?

 

Say what?

 

"The Treasury ought to get out there and buy these unwanted dollars in the marketplace. Just go out there and bid for them. And they need to stop printing so much debt from Congress."

 

:huh: bid for them with what? their good looks?

Paper promises, of more dollars later.

 

p.s. I am short "their good looks".

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I'm very puzzled, maybe someone may explain today action.

 

Why the strength in the dollar is accompanied by the sell-off of treasuries? Stronger dollar should make bonds more attractive and stocks less attractive for the foreign investor. Exactly opposite happens.

 

Why Bernanke's words that he's serious about inflation trigger sell-off in bonds that actually hate inflation???

 

This puzzle must have an answer, but I don't see it

 

The answers are in the Fed Report-- forecast in advance, by the way. Read the sections on Treasury Auctions and Open Market Operations. It has nothing to do with inflation. It has nothing to do with the dollar. It's about, only about, the only thing that it's ever about--the supply of Treasury paper and the demand for Treasury paper. In brief, the Treasury's CMB paydowns created an artificial shortage of supply and excess of demand for a couple of weeks. That ended Thursday.

 

I will be posting the big weekly update in a couple of hours. More or less a continuation of the saga, nothing earth shattering or ground breaking this week, just another couple of dots to connect.

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I highly recommend you to read latest post in Wojciech Białek blog about stock markets - he is one of my favourite anal cyst

There is lot of charts.

Unfortunately its in polish so I used google to translate it

 

http://translate.google.pl/translate?hl=pl...FGame-over.html

 

some "trailer"

 

SP500 - 7months change

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/SP5...ieszina1938.png

SP500zmian7mieszina1938.png

 

I propose to start with a visit to the old good analogy of the current situation on world markets for the years of 1938 and 1975. The following graph shows the synchronization index, the SP 500 from its average path in the years 1938-1940 and 1974-1976, Synchronization of the two plots were made in at least the latest revision of the June and July:

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/SPAnalogia.png

SPAnalogia.png

 

He also analyse polish blue chip index (wig20)

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Fractals within Fractals?

 

Look how similar the 8 hour fractal of NQ looks at the beginning of 2008, with the larger time frame daily fractal today...

 

And also how similar the 8 hour fractal looks to the 1938 daily....

 

Would be interesting if things proceed roughly along those lines.

 

It appears the purple moving average is providing a moving average sell signal with the bias moving down. Is the purple moving average the same in a higher time frame? By that I mean a 50 bar moving average in an hourly chart is an 8 bar moving average in a daily chart.

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by the way, Wojciech Bia?‚ek is the biggest cycles fan in Poland,

in his lates post he also mentioned about ~4mths cycle which dominated stock exchanges for the last two years. Take a look at this chart for Advance\decline for New York exchange

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/CyklNaADLine.png

CyklNaADLine.png

 

weekly Consensus Bullish Sentiment

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/sentyment.png

sentyment.png

like in 2007

 

BTW here is a chart for europe (publicated on 9th OCT 2009). PDF WARNING

http://www.analizy.pekao.com.pl/pdf.php?id=1145

 

 

Summary:

"To sum up all the above, I consider that on Monday full of breezy "bulls" will be surprised by a surprise attack "bears". This attack should look something like this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3P-mMF1014w

 

and after a month effect on European stock exchanges should be like this:

(sie is august and paź is October)

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/indekseuro.png

indekseuro.png

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It appears the purple moving average is providing a moving average sell signal with the bias moving down. Is the purple moving average the same in a higher time frame? By that I mean a 50 bar moving average in an hourly chart is an 8 bar moving average in a daily chart.

 

Yep, the same MA setup on all those charts....the purple is the 900..works on 1 min, or even 1 tick, charts too....

 

Here is a classic example of different time frame fractals controlling price, and why just looking at one time frame (in this case hourly) can give false signals. Hopefully some of you will find this at least interesting, even if you have zero faith in TA.

 

Why did BIDU stop and reverse where it did at the various places along the scorching rally? A look at 1, 2 and 4 hour charts appears to provide clues.

 

 

 

 

 

Daily chart suggests we are about due for another 72 MA test, and then likely a 200 MA test.

 

 

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...

and now, well, the new Boyz are the Chinese, ready to boost da doolar, so that they can buy more Physical Gold at a reasonable price, it is claimed. Meet the New Boss, same as da Old Boss.

 

...

 

jickiss!!!!!!!

 

I find your possible scenario very interesting and am trying to figure out how that might be achieved. In particular, how could they do that in a cost effective manner. If I were a Chinese national and wanted gold, I would want ONLY physical gold that I could hold in my vault. Buying paper would not fit my need. So, how much would it cost to prop dollars versus what would the resulting benefit be in reducing the price of physical gold?

 

Can you give any hints on how the situation might be gamed?

 

Thnx.

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Yep, the same MA setup on all those charts....the purple is the 900..works on 1 min, or even 1 tick, charts too....

 

Here is a classic example of different time frame fractals controlling price, and why just looking at one time frame (in this case hourly) can give false signals. Hopefully some of you will find this at least interesting, even if you have zero faith in TA.

 

Why did BIDU stop and reverse where it did at the various places along the scorching rally? A look at 1, 2 and 4 hour charts appears to provide clues.

 

Daily chart suggests we are about due for another 72 MA test, and then likely a 200 MA test.

 

Eh.. Ok.. Pls hear this comment out:

 

The more time frames one looks at, the more likely one is to find a SMA point of support / resistance somewhere, to explain a price reversal.

 

Is this not correct?

 

And, is there the risk of misleading one's self in the process? :mellow:

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It appears the purple moving average is providing a moving average sell signal with the bias moving down. Is the purple moving average the same in a higher time frame? By that I mean a 50 bar moving average in an hourly chart is an 8 bar moving average in a daily chart.

Care may be needed where the comparison in on futures vs cash. An ES day ain't an SPX day. More 1 hour bars on the ES per "day"..

 

Also Charmin -- by your arithmetic, I suppose by adding a whole lot of SMAs on a short timeframe chart, the info otherwise seen on a longer timeframe chart can be seen, all at once on the short timeframe chart.

 

I.e. A 4500 SMA on a 1 minute chart is a 900 SMA on a 5 minute chart.

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by the way, Wojciech Bia�?€šek is the biggest cycles fan in Poland,

in his lates post he also mentioned about ~4mths cycle which dominated stock exchanges for the last two years. Take a look at this chart for Advance\decline for New York exchange

http://wojciechbialek.blox.pl/resource/CyklNaADLine.png

CyklNaADLine.png

 

That chart implies either an October-November plunge, or a slight pull back in a rampaging bull market...guess we find out soon....

 

Leaning towards move down towards 200 MA myself...

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Countdown to D-Day – Professional Edition Fed Report

by Lee Adler, Saturday, October 10, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Treasury auctions have gone according to plan this week, bid heavily because of the $28 billion in CMB paydowns flooding the market with cash. That party ended Thursday, because in this coming week net settlements will require the market to cough up $49 billion. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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