Let's cut the crap

[Guest]

As to the K-Winter, that's all well and good, but my reading indicates there are cycles 1 or even 2 magnitudes larger than the K-Wave. (think dark ages here) It's very tough to document because of the lack of data that goes back thousands or even hundreds of years. I happen to think we are in a cycle at least 1 or more probably 2 magnitudes larger than the K cycle.

Yes, Prechter's "Grand Supercycle Bear". According to him, the Dark Ages were "only" a corrective move down; a triangle. Even the great famines and wars that culminated with the Black Plague in 1350 were "only" wave 2 (down) of a 5-wave up move - and now, according to him, we have started a 3-wave down move and are still very early in the very first wave of it.

 

I don't have much faith in these predictions - precisely because they are based on rather flacky data, as you mentioned. But, even if they are correct, it will still take many decades (centuries?) to reach the bottom.

 

Think the fall of Rome

 

Bob, the fall of Rome took centuries - not a few years.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Sphinxter]

Bob, the fall of Rome took centuries - not a few years.

True. But it also took months for the clipped coins to reach the frontiers, not microseconds.

[Guest]

Bob, the fall of Rome took centuries - not a few years.

True. But it also took months for the clipped coins to reach the frontiers, not microseconds.

You mean - it's different this time?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Guest jrmfl]

Bob, the fall of Rome took centuries - not a few years.

True. But it also took months for the clipped coins to reach the frontiers, not microseconds.

You mean - it's different this time?

 

Regards,

Vesselin

it's worth considering the "information age" and it's potential velocity vess...

 

this time it may be very different.

 

best to consider all the possibilities.

 

the human condition may never change, but the magnitude of change is incalcuable at this point in my opinion.

 

age old axioms may in fact, need not apply.

 

we'll see, it's too early in the game to make that call imo.

[Goldilocks]

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[Guest jrmfl]

QO, you have to remember that double-income married couples tend to pay more in taxes than two single people living together.

there's the DINK word...

 

interesting observation your wife makes Goldilocks.

 

usury takes many forms eh?

[Guest]

the human condition may never change, but the magnitude of change is incalcuable at this point in my opinion.

But it's not the magnitude I am objecting against - it's the timeframe. Since human nature doesn't change, it still takes the same amount of time to turn the psychology of the masses around. The appearance of radio, telegraph and railroads did not make the bear markets shorter. Neither did the appearance of the Internet, as some people speculated in 2000, expecting the bear to be over in just a few months after the March-April crash.

 

It won't be any different this time. Yes, the magnitude will be huge. But it will take decades; it won't be over just in a few years.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Guest jrmfl]

But it's not the magnitude I am objecting against - it's the timeframe. Since human nature doesn't change, it still takes the same amount of time to turn the psychology of the masses around. The appearance of radio, telegraph and railroads did not make the bear markets shorter. Neither did the appearance of the Internet, as some people speculated in 2000, expecting the bear to be over in just a few months after the March-April crash.

 

It won't be any different this time. Yes, the magnitude will be huge. But it will take decades; it won't be over just in a few years.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

my brother moved here from sweeden two weeks ago with a stopover in nyc for his wife to grab a green card... his take was this.

 

folks in the city are walking around with their collective heads down, depressed and in fear of how quickly the party has come to an aburpt halt.

 

we both lived there thru the entire 1990's and left in early 2000.

 

we saw the writing on the wall then.

 

3.5 years later and we've witnessed many changes.

 

you may very well be right, perhaps the great game goes on until every 401 is drained, 30%+ of america is unemployed and real estate is cut by 70%+.

 

i doubt it as history has shown just how quickly things can come unglued when confidence runs amok.

 

we'll agree to disagree on the timeframe.

 

sticking to the second week in june for the sheeple to begin to see the light.

 

due to an exogenous event that creates widespread panic.

 

and i have no idea why... just a hunch in my timeline. but it's strong enuf to warrant my attention.

 

i tend to listen to that little voice in my thick head with far greater frequency now.

 

we'll see, the points been made here over and over, we all have varying timeframes... for various reasons.

 

mine is certainly no better than anyone else's here, but i live on my gut.

 

if you are going to speculate, do it fulltime as jesse livermore used to say.

[Guest jrmfl]

But it's not the magnitude I am objecting against - it's the timeframe. Since human nature doesn't change, it still takes the same amount of time to turn the psychology of the masses around. The appearance of radio, telegraph and railroads did not make the bear markets shorter. Neither did the appearance of the Internet, as some people speculated in 2000, expecting the bear to be over in just a few months after the March-April crash.

 

It won't be any different this time. Yes, the magnitude will be huge. But it will take decades; it won't be over just in a few years.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

my brother moved here from sweeden two weeks ago with a stopover in nyc for his wife to grab a green card... his take was this.

 

folks in the city are walking around with their collective heads down, depressed and in fear of how quickly the party has come to an aburpt halt.

 

we both lived there thru the entire 1990's and left in early 2000.

 

we saw the writing on the wall then.

 

3.5 years later and we've witnessed many changes.

 

you may very well be right, perhaps the great game goes on until every 401 is drained, 30%+ of america is unemployed and real estate is cut by 70%+.

 

i doubt it as history has shown just how quickly things can come unglued when confidence runs amok.

 

we'll agree to disagree on the timeframe.

 

sticking to the second week in june for the sheeple to begin to see the light.

 

due to an exogenous event that creates widespread panic.

 

and i have no idea why... just a hunch in my timeline. but it's strong enuf to warrant my attention.

 

i tend to listen to that little voice in my thick head with far greater frequency now.

 

we'll see, the points been made here over and over, we all have varying timeframes... for various reasons.

 

mine is certainly no better than anyone else's here, but i live on my gut.

 

if you are going to speculate, do it fulltime as jesse livermore used to say.

ps, vess, i have a multimonth decline on deck into late october, early november with gold running to $550s by then, if not much higher.

[DICK BUTTkus]

Since human nature doesn't change, it still takes the same amount of time to turn the psychology of the masses around.

 

It is possible that the length of time required to reverse the psychology of the masses can be compressed. The inputs causing this change consist of perceptions. Example: I perceive today that my 401K will fund 20 years of retirement. Through currency debasement and further stock market losses, my portfolio's "real" value six months hence drops 30%. Furthermore, the unemployment rate increases 1% and the GDP turns negative. I now perceive that the portfolio will only fund 10 years of retirement, and that's only if I don't have to tap it early because I might lose my job.

 

I would argue that the rate of change in the mass psychology is correlated to the speed with which bad news accumulates. Today these things seem to move a bit faster than they did a few centuries ago -- and certainly faster than they did two millenia back.

[Guest]

ps, vess, i have a multimonth decline on deck into late october, early november with gold running to $550s by then, if not much higher.

I agree with the first part but not with the second. Gold's rise won't start till the time you mention. The peak will be much later (January?) and probably around 450 (too early to tell). Gold is in a long-term bull market; I don't expect any moon shots until near the end of it. We'll see.

 

Regards,

Vesselin

[Guest]

there's the DINK word...

 

interesting observation your wife makes Goldilocks.

 

usury takes many forms eh?

Whether or not there are children makes no difference in the tax outcome...single couples with children just have to pick which person will claim the kids. If one person's income is low enough, they could get EIC.

[ShitEatingGrinner]

mkj--

 

"it is very easy to argue that the last 90 years of fractional fiat existence have been a rousing success in terms of standard of living for the common man who is willing to get up and do something for a living every day."

 

 

keep in mind that without fractional reserve/fiat currency, governments are limited in their ability to make mischief--such as that little thing known as WWII. It took frac res bankers loaning money to Hitler--lots of DEBT--some supplied by Prescott Bush-- to get that war machine built and keep it running. SOME have enjoyed a better standard of living because of the global fiat system, but keep in mind that most of the world lives in what we would call poverty. They are subsistence farmers or fishers or hunters, or factory slaves. It's got nothing to do with who's willing to get up and work everyday. Most people in the world do exactly that--for subsistence wages, a short, nondescript life, and an unremarked death. Personally, whenever I get to feeling sorry for myself over this or that "misfortune," I try to stop and remember that little ol' middle class me lives far better than more than 90% of the people on this planet.

 

It is a seductive argument to say that if frac res systems are properly managed, they can be nothing but beneficial for humankind But that "if" is too big, and the temptation to inflate too powerful. The end of such systems have always and will always be the same. Implosion. Misery. War.

[Guest]

This is what MJ left out.  No longer can one working person support an EXTENDED family.  It takes two bread winners in many cases just to support an immediate family structure.  Wages have NOT kept up with inflation.  Not even close.  Two bread winners I might add that pay more taxes and provide the bankers with more deposits to fractionally reserve off of.

 

I was actually quite stunned the other day when my wife mentioned that she felt it was plainly obvious that the whole success of the Women's movement was in actuality just an effect of the Federal Reserve actions devaluing the dollar.  Women had to get into the workforce.  There was no choice.  It serves the bankers perfectly - that much more they can fractionally reserve off of.  

 

Now we are coming up on the fact that old folks are going to have to stay in the workforce longer.  Now that Immigrants are starting to be derided left and right what's next?  Putting kids back in?  They sure as hell have been marketing credit cards to them recently.

 

The fiat fractional reserve usurious lending system is the most vampiric and morally bankrupt creation ever known to man.  From the Creature flows so many of the rest of our ills, social, political, and economic that it beggars belief.

I am one of those rare stay-at-home mothers...and believe me, it ain't easy on this income!! :cry:

 

I think that when mothers (not necessarily women) started pouring into the workforce in droves and not saving/investing their money properly, helped price inflation (i.e. "wealth effect"). I like your wife theory though.

[Goldilocks]

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