rayok Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 There is no shortage of energy, just a shortage of low priced energy. Too many dopes invested in tech and forgot to invest in the energy needed to run everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 There is no shortage of energy, just a shortage of low priced energy. Too many dopes invested in tech and forgot to invest in the energy needed to run everything. ? Hubbert's Peak: The Debate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 There is no shortage of energy, just a shortage of low priced energy. Too many dopes invested in tech and forgot to invest in the energy needed to run everything. ? Hubbert's Peak: The Debate Yes. That too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 is it illegal to say CRASHin a "bull market" run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 is it illegal to say CRASHin a "bull market" run? All crashes in history have come within 30 days of the spring solstice or in the Fall. Maybe one is comming but it is early. Wait till the Fall or next April. Good to see you Anoscope. I see S is doing better for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 All crashes in history have come within 30 days of the spring solstice or in the Fall. Maybe one is comming but it is early. Wait till the Fall or next April. Good to see you Anoscope. I see S is doing better for you. i've been fully in cash except for a small $10k in bearx bought at 7.22. never even thought about covering it. I am ready when we get that first 20+ fall in one day. Monday I'll be in a meeting all day, so won't even get a phone update on the market, but the futures are nearly down 3 at this hour (sp500). the midnite jam on toast may itself be toast by 10 mins after market open. Won't this Monday be the first 'low volume' everyone is away at the Hampton's trading day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
richmtn Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Funny you guys mention energy. It looks for all the world to me like a major top. This is a chart of Baytex, oil and gas. Your chart says nothing. It could just as well be a huge double bottom. You know I didn't notice that. Thanks for the expert analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Nice chart Rich, I see th three year cycle there. Different opinions make a market. Good night Stoolies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimbo Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 LOOKS LIKE ITS TOPPING OUT This rally is or topping out Time to operate on the short side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sigmoid Friend Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 I personally can't stand Shtinker and only listen to him because, in my own mind at least, he seems to have connections to political/Street insiders. He made two really big calls recently in picking the top and now the bottom on this current rally. What were the details of his buy on the Q's at 75? I missed that one. Shtinker's 'buy' call on the QQQs was back in 2001. He tried to pick a bottom and ended up getting his ass nailed to the wall. I stopped listening to him after that, but I understand from others that he either never mentioned it again or got very testy when anyone tried to bring it up. I think the QQQs were at 75 (or thereabouts) when he made the call. He didn't have a stop of any kind, as far as I know. I only bring it up now because it reinforces the point I was trying to make about the 'IRA/401(k)' bonanza argument Shtinker apparently made this weekend (again, this from others reports, I don't listen to Shtinker). The more I think about this--and further supported by points others made made here--Shtinker must be either a complete crapvision-style crook or a blithering idiot. If he has connections in high places, that is truly scary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rayok Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Funny you guys mention energy. It looks for all the world to me like a major top. This is a chart of Baytex, oil and gas. Your chart says nothing. It could just as well be a huge double bottom. You know I didn't notice that. Thanks for the expert analysis. Ya, stoolpid me, I bought the second bottom. Just lucky I guess! The point is, we often see what we want to see, and one chart of one obscure company does not prove a major top in any sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMotleyStool Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 I'm afraid to get too optimistic, but I really think it's possible this time: market slide, then failing rally, then back to bear business. Notice I said possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 Whoa guys, let's not outthink ourselves on the Natural Gas issue. Maybe Greenspan was a very short term fade, but the real trade is for this winter. Stores are 30% below where they were last year at this time! That's a fact. Last year's winter was almost dead on the long term average in terms of heating degree days, and it wound up draining gas reserves by much more than average, which surprised just about everybody. Maybe we'll get this Alaska thing figured out, but that's at best a couple years away from going online. We still need to make it through this winter first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RockLedge Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 regarding natural gas,... once that Alaska pipeline gets built by the US taxpayer... There will be a ton of it. That's why the politcal fight and all the drama. The bread & butter isn't the gas... it's the pipeline. As soon as there is supply, the margins crash. Get it? So in the mean time, we're getting hustled. If anyone out there thinks the oil bidness is honest... I'm sorry, IMO, the book of manipulation was written by them. Sorry, but you're wrong here, at least on the NG story. When prices spiked 2 years ago, we had the most robust drilling activity in years, yet even with that added drilling, they were only able to increase reserves between 1-2%. They've been declining ever since, and the rate of decline is accelerating as we refine our techniques of extraction. Most new wells today experience a production decline of 40-50% in the first year. If there's an artery for a stream to reach a market... Canada will produce like crazy. You don't think Canada wants to sell their gas at these margins? If I remember right, crude was just at $12 a barrel not long ago.. what was the story then? Too much supply, right? And now the story is what. Canada is full of gas..... Just no way to get it to market. There is plenty of untapped reserves there. Alaska is peanuts in comparison to the reserves that Canada has. The only reason the price of gas is at the price that it is, is because we allow it to it exist. All we really have to do is just hang the laundry on the line, and the price would plummet just like french wine. So I don't buy the shortage gimmick... Here in Utah, I laugh when my refinery ships our gasoline to Washington State for a much larger profit then we could in state. And why is that? Is it because a refinery was closed down Wyoming over ten years ago. Right now, TSO want's to reverse that pipeline and really squeeze the hell out of Washington. Why is that? Is it because they run a refinery in Washington and want to starve their own market from excess supply. Which would only further add to the gasoline situation in Calfornia. And wow, hey they run one there too! It's a racket. Build another refinery in Calfornia and gas would fall in price. Allow a pipeline to exist that would allow a particular player to make money.... and we have problems. That's my story and I'm schticken wid it. Take it easy MyGoldenStool.. we'll just agree to disagree ok? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted June 16, 2003 Report Share Posted June 16, 2003 The Japanese have taken a cue from Freddie Mac in securitizing debt which in Japan's case is really busted private debt. One wonders if Japan's Central Bank will hire the recently dethroned executive from Freddie Mac to devise a derivative package so this securitized debt can show a profit - as all derivatives seem to do if we believe their owners. (There is a short bio on the side, to quailfy his remarks. Not everyone makes such statements.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.