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IDS World Markets Fri 23rd October 09


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My 1 min and 5 min momentum indicators for the SPU are starting to bottom. My SPX 10 min momentum indicators are moving down from yesterday's extended high. I still think that we get the selling be absorbed about an hour +- after cash open that will stabilize the market. Then we will have to see if they ramp up the market in the middle part of the day or keep the market in a position holding pattern.

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Good morning Buskow! Nice chart - I like how you can do that. IBD is counting any rise in volume, no matter how small. Price moves must be greater than .02% to count for accumulation or distribution. When volume rises and prices end less than .02%, its a churn (which leads to further interpretation). I don't post my charts here since they are pretty useless to anyone scalping the markets on an intraday basis. FWIW, here's what I'm seeing. The red hashes above the volume bars are distribution days, the green hashes are accumulation days, black is a downchurn, blue is an upchurn. I keep track of these over a rolling 4 week period in the box above the hashes. The market started to top back on 9/23, but buyers returned with 4 accumulation days in 2 weeks. Now we've had 3 distribution days since last Friday, while the buying on Monday and yesterday was insignificant. Can buyers return and blast this thing higher? Sure, it happened a few weeks ago. If they don't return, then the selling will gain momentum and we're facing the start of a correction (at least). The leading stocks are the key at this point. That's why I'm paying so much attention to the earnings reports at this time. Most company reports are simply horrendous relative to yoy comparisons (not speaking about expectations). Some of the big name companies (AAPL, GOOG, MSFT, etc.), though, are literally holding this market up, IMO. As everyone here knows, watch them for clues. If/when they go, the whole thing will go with it.

 

To be fair, the reason I believe Doc's work is invaluable, is that this is all about market liquidity. When you get down to what I'm tracking here, it really is money flows. If the institutional investors have money to invest, it will go into these dogs and we'll keep marching higher. But once the crack supply dries up, money comes out. His reports about liquidity conditions are really what's driving the markets; I'm just picking it up in the volumes. Tanks Doc!

 

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