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World Stock Markets Trading Discussion - Transient thrills


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If we are to believe EIA's data released yesterday, there was a sizable jump in all kinds of refined petroleum products supplied to the market last week.

On a YTD basis "only" distillates is heavily down to record lows in contrast with other fuels like gasoline and jet fuel which are nearing 2007 record highs.

So is the smack down in distillates only a symptom of less shale/"oil by truck and rail", mining activity and warmer weather or something more systemic/consumer driven like less trucks carrying goods for retailers? If the latter that would mean that high inventories/sales ratio are stale inventory rather than intentional build up to "pent-up demand". Record low rail traffic not only in bulk but also in intermodal (goods) also gives more evidence that this isn't limited to mining/shale.

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So the FED first delayed raising rates because of China and after the December hike, again early this year China was at the forefront of the reasons exposed by the FED not to raise rates.

But after the G20 and their 5 year plan, China came out with a plan to continue to support unhealthy parts of its economy with moar debt. And what does this have to do with interest rates? A lot. Since they are dumping onto World markets things like steel and all kinds of consumer products this will produce DEFLATION in those categories leading the FED not to raise rates because of deflation worries. So the solution chosen by China (moar of the same) will remove/postpone that FED worry (about CN economic collapse) only to replace it with the worry of deflation.

So since China joined WTO it has pressured interest rates down, first by recycling their USD export revenue into 10 year Trashuries and now more evidently they are pressuring the short term rates with the deflation they cause through dumping industrial (look at steel dumping) and consumer goods.

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something on this page is hanging up using chrome it just keeps spinning and spinning

 

 

Probably one of the ads that was served to you. Everybody gets something different depending on google's spying on you tells their ad bot algo. 

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So the FED first delayed raising rates because of China and after the December hike, again early this year China was at the forefront of the reasons exposed by the FED not to raise rates.

But after the G20 and their 5 year plan, China came out with a plan to continue to support unhealthy parts of its economy with moar debt. And what does this have to do with interest rates? A lot. Since they are dumping onto World markets things like steel and all kinds of consumer products this will produce DEFLATION in those categories leading the FED not to raise rates because of deflation worries. So the solution chosen by China (moar of the same) will remove/postpone that FED worry (about CN economic collapse) only to replace it with the worry of deflation.

So since China joined WTO it has pressured interest rates down, first by recycling their USD export revenue into 10 year Trashuries and now more evidently they are pressuring the short term rates with the deflation they cause through dumping industrial (look at steel dumping) and consumer goods.

 

 

Free trade! Free trade! It's all good! 

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Well since the Feb lows, equities have followed oil.  Long crude has been the best place to be.  Biotechs after an initial rebound fizzled but now joined the party!  Still pays to keep ones focus on crude I guess.  Energy and financials playing a big part of this rally outpacing the usual Tech leader.

Interesting that YTD defensive sectors are still on top.

post-10689-0-38744600-1460643199_thumb.jpg

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Well since the Feb lows, equities have followed oil.  Long crude has been the best place to be.  Biotechs after an initial rebound fizzled but now joined the party!  Still pays to keep ones focus on crude I guess.  Energy and financials playing a big part of this rally outpacing the usual Tech leader.

Interesting that YTD defensive sectors are still on top.

 

Nice graph.

And welcome. :D

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In Late Dec/January, i have warned many here about shorting oil, Gold and Energy/Gold stocks.

I've picked up a number of energy names (CVX, XOM, PSX etc.) and socked it away for my kids. 

Looking now back, it might have been the buy of the decade and kicking myself for NOT buying more.

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LATEST PRO TRADER REPORTS PRECIOUS METALS PRO Gold Still Fails To Crack 2 1/2 Years of Trend Resistance by Lee Adler •  April 14, 2016

Gold has pulled back just below resistance around the area of the March high in the 1290s. It’s also an area of a longer term trendline which has stopped 2 other rallies. Maybe the third time’s the charm.

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