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A Cataclysm Coming This Way 12/18/03


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. . . from The Daily Reckoning; long but good in a truly one-of-a-kind writing style . . .

 

. . . Then [Joshua] Bolten, and notice that I have dropped the "Mr." because I am obviously working myself into one of my foul moods and I am this far away (let the record show that I am holding up my thumb and forefinger, and that they are almost touching each other) from calling him a lowlife insect, probably something that crawls around in sewers, then says that the budget deficit is "entirely manageable, if we continue the president's strong pro-growth economic policies and sound fiscal restraint." . . .

 

. . . . . . . . . .AND DOC JUST REACHED 20K:

 

From Oversized Charts on IDS today . . .

Many of you may not be aware of this. Larger charts which are uploaded to the site are presented in the thread as a thumbnail. Click the pic in the thread and it will open the pic a separate window. Step two- IE has a a built in enlarger. Hold your curser (I curse you motherfornicater) over the lower right corner of the graphic in the new window. In a second, a hidden button will appear. Click it to enlarge the chart.

 

This does not apply to hotlinked charts. For those really gargantuan graphics that distort the thread, rather than hotlinking the graphic, please, just link to the page the pic is located on.

 

Tanks!

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twenty thousand posts. how sick is that. :lol:

 

And Glad has read every single one of them. :lol: :lol: :lol:

 

And it doesn't even count Stooltrading. Heh heh. just corrected a typo. "Stooltraining"

 

You know, this has not been a good year for bears. But Capitalstool.com has ridden out the storm and is doing just fine, thanks to people like Glad and all of you. The Stool will be around for years to come, regardless of what kind of market it is. Because we're about more than just trading. We're about fighting the never ending battle for Truth, Justice, and the Astoolian Way!

 

Stoolman!

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That's The Question

 

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Got milk? International milk and dairy products company Parmalat doesn?t. The Black Hole that opened in the Bermuda Triangle over Paramalt?s balance sheet looks even bigger today.

 

?Bank of America does not recognize the authenticity of a document dated March 6, 2003, which attested to the existence of positions in securities and cash corresponding to roughly 3.95 billion euros as of December 31, 2002?

 

Parmalat entered into derivative contracts with hedge funds and other ?offshore? companies, through the help of Citicorpse, to invest its ?4.2billion in current assets.

Now the money not only can not be accessed, but some of the money can?t even be found. Parmalat, which has about ?6bn in debt, last week barely avoided default on a ?150m bond. The company is in discussions to avoid default on $400m payment due to investors in its main holding company in Brazil.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/business/bu...d-parmalat.html

 

MILAN -- Parmalat SpA's financial crisis dramatically worsened Friday as it said Bank of America Corp. informed it that the bank isn't holding the ?3.95 billion ($4.91 billion) in liquidity it reported on its books in September.

Parmalat said Bank of America has disavowed the authenticity of a document stating the cash-strapped dairy group's Bonlat Financing Corp. unit held ?3.95 billion in cash and cash equivalents in an account there as of Dec. 31, 2002. The bank also said that on Dec. 17 it had advised Bonlat's accountants, Grant Thornton, that the Cayman Islands-based Bonlat didn't have an account at Bank of America.

post-3-1071839063_thumb.jpg

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Current headlines from the Wall Street Urinal. Reload the Urinal frequently throughout the day for all the latest headlines from Dow Jokes, Boomblurb, Rhoiders, TheSheeit.com, CNN Moneyhype, and other news and infomercial sources from around the world. The links are above right, in the left menu, and below the thread. Wall Street Urinal

All the news that fits, we print.

 

 

Oil prices up slightly...

CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:52am

 

 

HEADLINE STOCKS - U.S. stocks to watch on Dec. 19...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am

 

 

CORRECTED-UPDATE 1-Salesforce.com files $115 mln IPO...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am

 

 

UPDATE 1-Salesforce.com files $115 mln IPO...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 07:28am

 

 

BNP Paribas, IBM To Set Up Joint IT Services Company...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am

 

 

WTC Architects To Unveil Revised Freedom Tower Design...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am

 

 

EU OKs Celestica Buy of Manfacturers Services Ltd....

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am

 

 

NEWS SNAP: Gold Fields Ventures Into South America...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 07:24am

 

 

Eurostocks start higher...

CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:16am

 

 

Asia gets a Wall St. boost...

CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 07:16am

 

 

Parmalat Calls Emergency Meeting as Bank of America Contests $4.9 Billion...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 07:10am

 

 

German Parliament Backs $11 Billion in Tax Cuts and Welfare-System Changes...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 07:10am

 

 

anal cyst is recommending Capital One...

The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am

 

 

CFO of WesBanco says their goal is to increase return on equity...

The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am

 

 

anal cyst likes Apollo Group...

The Wall Street Transcript Daily Notes - 12/19/03 06:34am

 

 

Stock rally reloads...

CNN Money: Markets & Stocks - 12/19/03 06:30am

 

 

PacifiCare declares 2-for-1 stock split...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 06:26am

 

 

Parmalat Auditor May Make Statement Friday On BoA Account...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am

 

 

EU OKs Texas Pacific, J.P. Morgan Buy Of Kraton Polymers...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am

 

 

LukOIl Signs $330 Million Pact...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am

 

 

BAT Can't Renew Philip Morris Contract When It Buys ETI...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am

 

 

Lufthansa To Cancel Frankfurt-Phoenix Flights From Feb 1...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 06:20am

 

 

European Stocks Including Siemens, LVMH Rise; Drugmakers' Shares Decline...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 06:06am

 

 

UPDATE 1-Medion CFO says Aldi relationship, goals intact...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 05:22am

 

 

UPDATE 1-China Life raises IPO by 15 pct to US$3.46 bln...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 05:22am

 

 

Acambis Says Baxter Sells Stake,Comml Deals Not Affected...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

Komercni Banka To Sell Stake In Payment Processing Co...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

NEWS SNAP: Parmalat Crisis Worsens As Cash Vaporizes...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

Parmalat Bonds Plunge After BofA Disavows Bank Account...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

Parmalat Shares Suspended Limit Down - Italian Exchange...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

Parmalat Says Board to Meet Friday >PRF.MI...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 05:16am

 

 

Parmalat's Bondi Calls Board Meeting After Bank of America Contests Cash...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 05:02am

 

 

Gucci Posts First Profit Gain in Three Quarters on New Handbags, Perfumes...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 05:02am

 

 

Vista Group Starts Trading On AIM In London...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Parmalat Shares Suspended -2: May Open At 0830GMT...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Toyota President: Still Far Behind Ford In Global Sales Terms...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Ex-Lyonnais Chairman Says Left By Roadside In Executive Life Case...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Rolls-Royce Signs Expressjet $720 Million Deal...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

US GE Consumer Finance To Buy Singapore Auto Finance Co...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Strategic Retail Starts Trading On AIM In London...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Aldata Solution Names Neil Thall VP Of US, Canada Opers...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 04:12am

 

 

Parmalat Says Bank of America Contests Company's $4.9 Billon Cash Holdings...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 04:00am

 

 

Stocks in Europe Rise on Growth Prospects; Siemens, Allianz Shares Advance...

Bloomberg: Financial News - 12/19/03 04:00am

 

 

What holiday? Asian banks see busiest Dec in years...

Reuters Financial News - 12/19/03 03:14am

 

 

Viacom, Comcast Sign Deal for Multiyear TV Distribution...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

 

 

Parmalat/Liquidity -2: Fresh Concerns Over Cash Assets...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

 

 

Altana To File For European Approval For Daxas Feb 2004...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

 

 

NTT DoCoMo To Invest Y37 Billion In 3G Cellphone Devt Next 2 Yrs...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

 

 

Italy's BNL Will Sell Agent Network To RAS For EUR100 Million...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

 

 

France's SFL Withdraws Sophia Bid; Clears Way For GE...

Dow Jones US Market via Morningstar - 12/19/03 03:08am

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The crescendo of bullish outlook on every media venue

you care to look at is TOTAL.......

 

Gore must have been right........"what's up is down; what's down

is up"...........................................................

 

Things have changed: 90% of traders make all the money, 10% lose

............................... 10% who lose are always BEARS........

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Well well well.  Friday.  Opex Friday.  The Day After.

 

TGIF.

There seems to be a little conflict between post-OpEx reversal and holiday seasonality. Maybe one reason that VIX is so low, is that the next two weeks feature fewer hours of trading, lower volume, and therefore smaller expected movement in prices. But options time value keeps ticking away at the usual rate. Ergo, implied volatility should be discounted in advance.

 

We're less than 4 weeks away from the fourth anniversary of the DJIA's 14 Jan 2000 all-time high. The turn in the 4-year cycle could be expected any time. Despite being an election year, 2000 was a down year. It could happen again in 2004.

 

I'm still pondering the continued skrinkage in the money supply reflected in the Fed releases last night. How long can Wall Street's rocket keep rising when the fuel supply is sputtering out? Only until gravity takes hold.

 

Finally, 12+19+03 (today's date) adds up to a Fibo 34. It just has a gnarly look to me. Maybe the astrologers can figure it out. Last month they said the Dec. 10-13 period was dangerous for Cheney, but Saddam got captured. Right timing, wrong guy. :huh:

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After considering the near tie vote, Doc has decided to make the popup thumbnail market overview window a permanent feature of the site. This compact window contains the latest intraday thumbnail charts on the SPX, gold and precious metals indices from Kitco, as well as a market summary applet from Barchart.com and form boxes for detailed quotes and market statistics. The window has minimal graphics beyond the essentials, so that it uses few server and processor resources, loads quickly, and gives you the tools you need all in one convenient reduced size window. You can also toggle the window back and forth with the Wall Street Urinal, to quickly scan all the latest newsnoise headlines. The links to this window are located in the upper right of this page, in the left column, and below the thread.

 

Market Stats and

Thumbnail Charts

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There seems to be a little conflict between post-OpEx reversal and holiday seasonality. Maybe one reason that VIX is so low, is that the next two weeks feature fewer hours of trading, lower volume, and therefore smaller expected movement in prices. But options time value keeps ticking away at the usual rate. Ergo, implied volatility should be discounted in advance.

 

We're less than 4 weeks away from the fourth anniversary of the DJIA's 14 Jan 2000 all-time high. The turn in the 4-year cycle could be expected any time. Despite being an election year, 2000 was a down year. It could happen again in 2004.

 

I'm still pondering the continued skrinkage in the money supply reflected in the Fed releases last night. How long can Wall Street's rocket keep rising when the fuel supply is sputtering out? Only until gravity takes hold.

 

Finally, 12+19+03 (today's date) adds up to a Fibo 34. It just has a gnarly look to me. Maybe the astrologers can figure it out. Last month they said the Dec. 10-13 period was dangerous for Cheney, but Saddam got captured. Right timing, wrong guy. :huh:

those roc's imply the pace of liquidity is slowing down markedly, which by any

rationale measure, would suggest bubble trouble ---- dead ahead.

 

unfortunately, i'm not convinced just yet the aggregates are painting an accurate

picture. the dough had to go somewhere, where is it?

 

if this money poured back into the "markets" then perhaps it's merely an issue

of ownership and ledger entry?

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those roc's imply the pace of liquidity  is slowing down markedly, which by any

rationale measure, would suggest bubble trouble ---- dead ahead.

 

unfortunately, i'm not convinced just yet the aggregates are painting an accurate

picture. the dough had to go somewhere, where is it?

 

if this money poured back into the "markets" then perhaps it's merely an issue

of ownership and ledger entry?

I admit to being mystified by the whole 'money' thing - how it's counted, where it goes, and all that.

 

But to my simplistic brain, the easiest way for money to 'disappear', as we've been seeing, is by default. Perhaps the record bankruptcy rate is playing into this?

 

Secondarily, it's pretty obvious that banks have not been lending very much lately, particularly the C&I stuff. This is because, as Noland will point out, when the debt markets are this forgiving who needs a crummy bank loan?

 

Record debt issuance by savory and unsavory players alike = no need to borrow from banks.

 

Further, consumers are borrowing less now that the refi game has slowed.

 

All this adds up to reduced M3 even in the face of massive gubermint deficit spending. Not good.

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Lots of interesting questions in here. Another one is: will there be a January effect this year? The Effect is the tendency of small cap stocks to outperform the market from mid-December to mid-January.

 

With the market seeming to peak here, it's hard to see it this time around. Unless you can find certain sectors of small caps which aren't correlated to the market as a whole...

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