The End Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 ok - question. and not a rhetorical one. how would each of us define a market "crash"? meaning, what percent or point move would it take for you to tell someone that "the market crashed today"? 16.18% in one day. Or 27.2% over a short period of time (one month) :wink2: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Hey Aussie, According to Weldon, you guys are about the last remaining obstacle to a confirmed Bull Market in Gold...all we're waiting on is your equivalent to a dollar devaluation....how's it look? HAHA, you're asking ME? What do I know of such things... hmmm well nothing I'm afraid You do your usual stint as chef tonight, Crooked? Could use you around here ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 How can you posit that a stoolie is satirizing a well-known self-promoting stock market guru? Who would think of such a thing? Ed Zachary! It is simply preposterous to think that a stoolie could do such a thing. Unthinkable! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On another matter, showing how badly I need to get another hobby, I find massive discrepancies in the newly revised GDP report. To begin, I need to go back and find out how many times they have 'revised' the GDP up nearly a full point. Starting at a preliminary 2.4%, it went to 3.1% and finally, 3.3%. Sweet mother of god, that's a 90 basis point adjustment. It's not like we're trying to calculate the interest on an overnight loan of a ten spot at LIBOR rates. This is the GDP of the freaking U.S.A. When I start on this report, I always go to table 11, "Corporate profits by industry" because here's where you can spot the skankier stuff real easy. And here we see that , wow!, on an annulaized basis corporate profits are up 14.0%! That's Great! In fact, I'll use even more exclamation points to indicate my extreme pleasure in this finding !!!!!! !! ! There. Now, digging in a bit deeper, let's examine the various components. To begin, we note that financial industry earnings are down 1.61% on an annualized basis from last quarter. Dang. That blows. OK, moving on to the non-financial industries we see that their aggregate earnings are down 0.36% from 1Q. Dang again. What's going on here? OK, maybe it's in the remaining balance of Wholesale, Retail, and Other. Ooops. They're collectively up only 0.09%. That doesn't add up. Where's the 14% dammit?!? It's not in "rest of world" either as that's actually down (again). So much for the "weak dollar helping exports and repatriated funds" argument. Oh, here's the 14+%. It's tucked into "Inventory Valuation Adjustment". Again. A statistical garbage bucket. Just like everything produced by the goobermint charlatans today. Another "rub and a tug with a happy ending" report. Thanks for the massage goober-guys. Can you take a look at my checkbook? It could use a little of your whore-ish magic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Hey Aussie, According to Weldon, you guys are about the last remaining obstacle to a confirmed Bull Market in Gold...all we're waiting on is your equivalent to a dollar devaluation....how's it look? HAHA, you're asking ME? What do I know of such things... hmmm well nothing I'm afraid You do your usual stint as chef tonight, Crooked? Could use you around here ... Chef, indeed....Wife, Daughter & Baby at a kid B-Day party till 8:00 PST....Daughter wants Fettuccine Alfredo with Blackened Chicken (not too spicey)....just waiting for the call saying they left.....no complaints, though...I enjoy the fact that they enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Ed Zachary! It is simply preposterous to think that a stoolie could do such a thing. Unthinkable! -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- On another matter, showing how badly I need to get another hobby, I find massive discrepancies in the newly revised GDP report. To begin, I need to go back and find out how many times they have 'revised' the GDP up nearly a full point. Starting at a preliminary 2.4%, it went to 3.1% and finally, 3.3%. Sweet mother of god, that's a 90 basis point adjustment. It's not like we're trying to calculate the interest on an overnight loan of a ten spot at LIBOR rates. This is the GDP of the U.S.A. When I start on this report, I always go to table 11, "Corporate profits by industry" because here's where you can spot the skankier stuff real easy. And here we see that , wow!, on an annulaized basis corporate profits are up 14.0%! That's Great! In fact, I'll use even more exclamation points to indicate my extreme pleasure in this finding !!!!!! !! ! There. Now, digging in a bit deeper, let's examine the various components. To begin, we note that financial industry earnings are down 1.61% on an annualized basis from last quarter. Dang. That blows. OK, moving on to the non-financial industries we see that their aggregate earnings are down 0.36% from 2Q. Dang again. What's going on here? OK, maybe it's in the remaining balance of Wholesale, Retail, and Other. Ooops. They're collectively up only 0.09%. That doesn't add up. Where's the 14% dammit?!? It's not in "rest of world" either as that's actually down (again). So much for the "weak dollar helping exports and repatriated funds" argument. Oh, here's the 14+%. It's tucked into "Inventory Valuation Adjustment". Again. A statistical garbage bucket. Just like everything produced by the goobermint charlatans today. Another "rub and a tug with a happy ending" report. Thanks for the massage goober-guys. Can you take a look at my checkbook? It could use a little of your whore-ish magic. That 90 basis pts equals an upward revision of 37.5%..Total bullsh*t... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 I find it interesting that posting a FWIW about EWI brings on such opposition on a Bear board. I believe it just shows the exaggerated hope for a bull mk. bullish sentiment is @ record levels along with margin for joe 6. I will not drink the koolaide Party on Girlebulls but keep an eye on your watch midnite draws near and your coach is not in sight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sphinxter Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 ok - question. and not a rhetorical one. how would each of us define a market "crash"? meaning, what percent or point move would it take for you to tell someone that "the market crashed today"? Good question. It's either any single day when two or more major indexes close down 10% or more OR any market event that causes the average sheeple to experience a dislocated sense of dread not unlike that experienced by a cat safely tucked under a bed but pinned by a nearby vacuum cleaner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paul-s Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Good post, Sphinxter! (referring to your analysis of GDP). Nicely sluethed. (BARE, is that a verb?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Let's get things straighter then I. 1) The stock market is in a B wave bear market rally that probably ends near 1060-1100 spx, near the election. 2) The doo-lar is in a bear market. Period. 3) Gold is most likely in a new bull market but, we can still retrace a bit (i doubt highly, we retrace to below $300 again) Don't pay any attention to me. I'm jewish, posting on the new year, after going to conservative services. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crooked_analyst Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Hey Doc, Knowing your disdain for the breaking of Rule # 5, Could we have a thread for some good wines....I've got a great second label for a Cab..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearman Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 I 'll give you 2 out of 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 I wish ... Sat morning here and its Straightsville until the housework's done I see a Foster's commercial.. Aussiebear unloading cases of lager off a Foster's truck into her house.. Caption- Housework.. Picture of a Foster's can.. Caption- Beer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 I see a Foster's commercial.. Aussiebear unloading cases of lager off a Foster's truck into her house.. Caption- Housework.. Picture of a Foster's can.. Caption- Beer... Now that inspires me to go and actually do something instead of pretending ... I'll start with this disgusting keyboard, the letters of which are barely discernable... seeya later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
realist Posted September 27, 2003 Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 So are we SHORT yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted September 27, 2003 Author Report Share Posted September 27, 2003 Bearish Case: A striking similarity between March 2000 and September 2003 http://clearstation.etrade.com/cgi-bin/bbs...post_id=4816541 ............................................ Roger Arnold tonight is a must listen. RealPlayer, 22 minutes into the program. http://play.rbn.com/?url=tfnn/tfnn/demand/...3.rm&proto=rtsp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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