longOnUranus Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 I remain 80% cash in my trading account, but for the first time in a while, have no "bearish" option positions. I remain short XAU, NEM put added Friday. Long INTC Friday, also bought a single SPX call (distant expiry and deep ITM) Friday. I believe there is a potential, as some have said, for a rally to the 965 area, during which the above positions should be on the winning side. If there is not much upside action Mon or Tues, will reconsider. Absent events, a dramatic down either of these 2 days will be vigorously defended. Without doubt, there is danger. The bear trend is intact; I've got other instruments outside of the trading account whch should help if I need to get Noah to give me an Arc ticket. But I agree completely with Doc that this scenario is still a few months off. And if I'm wrong, heck, they're just options. As an aside, most of last year, bulls and bears bemoaned the absence of a "tradable market". Be it only for a few weeks, I think that is what we have now. Yes, you can trade anytime in any market; to me, tradable means there are greedy buyers and greedy sellers (vis a vis fearful/fearful). This is the only environment I consider swing trading for more than intraday use. Have a good week, everyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 There are too many thinkin' we've got at least a few more months of nonsense ahead of us. Betcha we shilly shally around. The Matrix or whateveryawannaCALLit hASS enough ammo left to keep a crash FURom happnin', probably, sans some external/exogenous (lawyers simply can't resist using words like "spurious" and "exogenous" whenever possible!) event. But do they have 'nuff of dem der funny little BLUE PILLS to ram it? It looks like it's back to "sidewaze, then down". Unless Pile is right and it's OVER, Rover. And it might be, too. It would be just like this bear to shove bears down to 17% then let the longs have it. But if it is treacherous it will confound bears further and suck in more people to the long side beFUR "BARE"ing it's fangs, again. HRFF guesses the FURces of greed and manipulation are in equipoise w those of a counterveiling nature - FUR now. Hence, the mkt hASS stalled out FUR weeks on end. He hASS little doubt (some, of course - this MIGHT be a new bull that bears are UDDERly blind to FURtunately, the manipulation is palpable. And it smacks of quiet desperation. The BARE remains short ass he hass throughout this whole silly levitation. He did get a bit nervous last Monday, though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Speculator, Gold is usually associated as a hedge against inflation, but should perform well as a hoarding vehicle even in a deflationary environment. As credit around the globe deteriorates in quality the only real store of value is gold. Where do you think investors are going to put their hard earned dollars if we experience a massive wave of bankruptcies sweep businesses like bushfires in Australia? We all know the FEED?s motto: INFLATE or DIE! They have said repeatedly that deflation will not be accepted and that inflation can be created by Al?s magic wand. What?s to say that they don?t print too much and we get run-away inflation like in the 70s? The lease rates for gold are normally about 1% to 2%. What is the spread that the bullion banks can make at today?s 41-year low interest rates? I find it hard to see how leasing gold from the central banks is profitable anymore. Could it be that suppressing the spot price is the only way to stay alive? The modern gold banking system requires that lease rates be lower than dollar interest rates. Falling U.S. interest rates have reduced the incentives for producers to engage in forward sales, for fabricators to borrow, or for anyone to borrow gold instead of dollars. Interest rates aren?t likely to rise anytime soon. That would be suicide. On the contrary, don?t be surprised to see them go lower. Surely, if tightness in the gold market cannot be remedied through higher lease rates because higher dollar rates is an acceptable policy choice, the only means left for restoring market balance is higher prices. brian4, You think the move in the POG is halfway to reaching the top. That means we?d get a move through $330!! Quite a milestone and would surely generate a lot of interest and a lot of headaches at JPM. I?ll be watching? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Beware of that external shocker that may just spell MARKET CRASH! http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...2-2002Dec8.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 PIT BULL-On GOLD-It has been going thru backwardation for over two years now (yes-that is the term) it means simply that as the big miners reduce their hedge books the price narrows between futures and the spot price and the availability of GOLD for lease shrinks-the demand for GOLD for industrial applications has been growing as has the safe haven demand.. Gold is now in a position where demand exceeds supply-it has been years since any meaningful exploration has been done and although they are starting to do that now it will be 8 to 10 years before any new major finds become mines. The price has been suppressed by a strong dollar and the derivative BOYZ-the wild card is that the rise for GOLD if can breach $350.- could well be astronomical as JPM, C and the rest of the vipers scramble to find enough to stay afloat. In 1929 Homestake then the worlds largest gold miner was trading at $13.-@ share in the ensuing two years it dropped to $4.- as deflation bit and by 34-35 was trading @ $144.- @ share in 1934 dollars. Could it happen again? You bet it could-Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 torah: You asked that those how have been spouting off show you their positions and say what they are doing. I looked at the charts and dumped all of my small-cap long ETF hedges Friday at close. Chartsy looked fugly, better longs elsewhere. Retirement: 20% BEARX 15% BBHIX (TIPS) 10% FLPSX 5% FSDAX 5% EPP 5% EWH 8% HD 25% (approx) cash Investment Account: 8% GBGLF (veerrryyy speculative microcrappy gold) 25% BEARX 8% CPHD 5% EPP 5% EWH 8% HD 50% (approx) cash For both accounts, looking to Buy on pullbacks: Biotech, Energy, Japan, Gold For Investment Account: One or two Semis for a swing trade If stocks go up, I will sell some of the current longs and buy some golds. If they go down, I will look to buy some new longs and sell some golds. There you have it. Of course, I never tell anyone what to do. I'm usually asking for second opinions and offering caution, which is always a good idea in these kind of markets. I'm still learning. :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Torah LONG...GG, DROOY,PHYSICAL GOLD, SPX DEC 950 PUTS and SOX DEC 350 PUTS SHORT.... MXIM, and ELX GONNA BE ONE MERRY XMAS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Pitbull Long term ?savings? could/should be put into GOLD. Savings = Level of Stored wealth/power remaining after death. If Gold breaks out... It will end in a blink of an eye... Brace for impact. Midnite And next year... It's only going to get worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 I'm liking Puplava's show more each week. A decided bear, he nonetheless has numerous strategies on the long and short side which are not fully encapuslated by the bear case. Longs on defense and energy equities, in addition to gold. Sic, "there is always a bull market somewhere". The market-perspective danger with the coming Iraq conflict could actually be to the short side, if military success presents itself quickly enough (as most in the US hope it will). In the long term, it won't matter, but short term, like MH said, 12B to pay for 1T borrrowed to finance the war is a no-brainer. The market could quickly assume a bullish posture similar to after the first Iraq conflict. As 2003 approaches, the bass-o-matic concept will increasingly prevail. Any money coming to The Street, short or long side, will meet an increasingly voracious blender. As conflict draws near, I am more inclined to place unleveraged bets on long term trends, and ignore the short term. It will get very confusing, and could get very expensive as the casino increases its take on a declining gross. I am fully aware of the Perfect Storm scenario, and believe in it. However, listening to talk shows, investment and otherwise, I'm left with the impression that gold advocates, credit-bubble fighters and short traders are considered to be flat out WRONG, and WACKO, by the majority of the investing public. While this is bearish, it creates a political environment to sustain or increase the activities which got us here in the first place - now that Governemnt intervention is an open, public policy. It is quite easy for me to see BubbleII before the Perfect Storm. There is very little that the most vocal bears say, herein, which I don't believe. I just think we will see a fight to the finish which will accompish exactly what a bear market is supposed to do: remove any interest in equities from the mind of the investing public - be you a bull or a bear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 "like MH said, 12B to pay for 1T borrrowed to finance the war is a no-brainer. " If T-bill rates were at a decent (normal?) rate, say 4.5%, the price tag for the $1T would be a whopping $45B per year. Does this really change the calculus vs. $12B? The pink elephant is evidently the $1T principal amount. Where is the money coming from to pay this back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Elliott waves work....only when they agree with Hurst cycles ?:grin: ....Their rollover will signal the next hard down. Setup for a crash is not ready. you said it for me perfectly. Perhaps not there yet but damn close as we'll ever be. Either way its down overall and the bull is taking a "dirt nap" for sure. Will pony up more on the right shoulder, if we are lucky to form one. Bare nailed everything. Cowards. Game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 The oscillators for the 6 month and 12 month cycles have a significant lag -- up to 2 months. Given the absolute levels of the indicators, the cycles should be in the top now. That's how I've tagged them on the cylce conditions tables in the Anals. But tops of that magnitude take time. The last 10-12 month cycle top lasted 4 months- Dec. '01 to March 2002. This one started forming in late October. The Dow will not rise in nominal terms if interest rates are positive real. If they are successful in reflating, and cpi goes to 5%, but 10 year yields go to 8%, the PE on the Dow will probably fall to about 10, or if things run true to historic form, maybe 6 at the bottom. Of course no one knows wtf earnings will be, but in the 70's the market hated inventory profits. Wouldn't pay a plugged nickel for them. Bill Gross holds the keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 BAREister, what is "WJC" as mentioned in your post? And the fellow from Goldman put his finger on the culprit: Mr R and WJC. THEY could have done much to prevent this mess from arising. The Shrub will take the blame FUR a situation not so much of his making ass that of his predecessor's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 BAREister, what is "WJC" as mentioned in your post? And the fellow from Goldman put his finger on the culprit: Mr R and WJC. THEY could have done much to prevent this mess from arising. The Shrub will take the blame FUR a situation not so much of his making ass that of his predecessor's. Hey Greg, I believe HRFF was reFURRing to our former president, William Jefferson Clinton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 9, 2002 Report Share Posted December 9, 2002 Retirement account 30% RYURX (added thursday) 70% Treasuries ( this is a Weiss Managed Bear market strategy account thru Fidelity) Trading account Shorts MMM, ABFS, BOA, BZH, BBBY,EBAY, ESRX, FNM, GS, KBH, KSS, NVS, LIZ, PGR, QLGC, QCOM, ROAD, TOL, WMT, YEL and RYTPX Longs AMCC, BRCD, CPN, KO,EXTR, MCD, SFE, CMGI,S, SWKS, STOR, SVU, TERA, WEN, AEM, GLG, NEM, and 20% in Gold funds via Rydex & Nuveen Puts ABN, AMZN, AMGN, AZO, BLS, BBH, CMCSK, DCX,ERTS, EUR, GM, HIT, HI, HOV, IBM, KLAC, MRK, MSFT, NDX, OMC, PHLX, QCOM, ROAD, RD, SPX, SMH, VZ, VIP Calls KO, DYN, EP, EMC, HNZ, MO, WEN, Roughly I am 60% shorts & puts, 20% longs & calls, and 20% cash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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