PileDriver Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 Some guy named Byron Wien from Morgan Stanley, just said the market was undervalued by 40% and that the housing bubble was just going to get bigger. ? When will this garbage end. He also said Hillary Clinton was going to run for President next time and that the Democratic Party needed her. it'll end when everything is decimated. This talk is typical residual bull market bravado commonly associated with the denial stage in mass psychology. Everyone is invested for maximum loss. It has to be this way before the next devastating leg down can begin. Max damage isn't done until everyone is aboard. Whooo, hooo...all aboard! Not really FM, but if you'd like to pat yourself on the back that's fine by me too. You're so good, I wish I could be just like you. BTW, what did you short on Dec 2nd? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 The financials have now bumped up against the falling 200wk MA, where the 13 and 50 week MAs have crossed down. weekly BKX The monthly SOX still looks like hell. Could we have painful periods in this market?? Take a look what the Japanese traders have had to contend with. The design of a Kodiak is to demolish everything....including most bears. It is very likely going to be our roadmap to hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 Has every one lost their minds except End, Butt and Piles- I went 100% short right at the failed top the End referred to in laddered SPX starting down at 950 ( all March contracts) c'mon all you techies pull up a 60 day chart of the Dow and take a look at the monstrous H&S top that we completed the right shoulder on at 8800 where we failed also as END poin ted out 930-31 held right where it was supposed to. Again I agree with End that we are going back to 900 but I doubt it will hold-this action and the current sentiment and the number of bears on the long side puts me in full agreement with Butt it's the perfect set up for 3 rd wave down. I pointed out last night that in the cot report Da Boyz are ass deep short and the sheep ass deep long. That bonehead Bush is fully priced in there is "no buy on mystery-sell on history" here-Da Boyz will sell the news period. If anyone is looking at the futures as we speak SPX and NDX are both 4 points below fair value and it's early. As Bugs says "be vewwy, Vewwy, werry" GTN-get the hell outta that fund in the morning and switch-I would suspect Summoner and Phat have also joined End and I on the short side and Lightening is always short! Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 Well done Meta charts never lie. Trade safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 A/D ratio on the NYSE was nearly 3:1 today. Pretty good follow-through to last Thursday's 3.5:1. Is Bubble II underway? It can't be officially declared until the S&P breaks above its Aug. 2002 high of 965. But there are tantalizing social clues. Cadillac has unveiled a $250,000 V-16 car at the Detroit Auto Show, echoing both the V-12s and V-16s of 1928-33 and the muscle cars of the mid to late Sixties. Among the designs being considered for the former World Trade Center site are a building which would be the tallest on earth .. always a classic bubble validator. (Ask Malaysians what happened after Petronas Towers was completed.) And to top it all off, it was asserted on TV this week that hemlines are going up in 2003, way up, "high enough to turn men's heads." What does that remind you of? It reminds me of 1968: go-go girls, go-go stocks, go-go mutual funds. The DJIA failed to exceed its Feb. 1966 high in 1968, but speculation was rampant on the Curb (your father's version of the Nasdaq). Elliott wave theory holds that 'b' waves are only a pale reflection of the preceding Wave 5 top. The froth is there, but not the substance. Sounds about right. Bubble II may not last long. But we must enjoy it while we can. Preferably whilst cruising past the world's tallest building in our Caddy V-16s, with miniskirted bimbos frolicking in the back seat. Baby that's rock and roll! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 6, 2003 Report Share Posted January 6, 2003 All hail the mighty Machinehead! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bizarro-Greenspan Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 http://www.321gold.com/editorials/buckler/...kler010603.html Running the numbas for Shrub's Big Adventure, wow, Uncle Buck will need many,many miracles to pull this one off. Shrub mebbe should have enlisted Father Gino Sarducci for Treasury Secretary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 Tell all the people that you see, follow me. Follow me down! Welcome back M.H. Biz, Thats Guido sarducci. :grin: I know i'm a pain in the arse. My wife bitches all the time the way I correct here. Sure wish i can correct this market. Never mind, It will CORRECT itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
longOnUranus Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 This feels just like last January. I rode the wall of worrry and skiboarded down the backside to the best riches of the year for me. I do think it is possible that we have an up year, but not before the October lows are broken. Oy Oy Oy, fundamentals look like crap, and we never had a "capitulation" bottom. But that's not what I'm talking about. Looking at the 20-100 year chart, we are due for a retrace to the 8% annual growth level. TA is not what I'm talking about, either. As an American, it saddens me to say, our country will be shown for the economic weakling it has become. China, and possibly Europe and PacRim, will show the USD and the world where it's growth prospects lay. I believe we will see this this year. The market may make it to 10K, but on much lower volume than we saw in the late 90's. This will be the icing on the cake. Iraq will be a sideshow for domestic consumption only. The world's money, as opposed to 1999, will be elsewhere. A weakened dollar guarantees this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buttugly Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 I found Vesselin & Marks comments yesterday about BPIs (Bullish Percentage Index) fascinating. Vesselin has explained that BPI is a better measure of bottoms than tops. And certainly this was spelt out by the October low. However having said that based on my analysis (for what it's worth?) of the various BPIs - $BPNYA, $BPNDX, $BPINDU etc I find it hard to believe that the market can launch a sustainable rally from here. Maybe a bit more upside but more potential on the downside? Please feel free to correct me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 Purchased 10 jan 250 SOX calls at the open today sold 5 at the high for some major ducketts expect a spike up in the am and will unload the rest , EMC raised guidance AH, the spin continues...was just reviewing a number of yearly charts ....major trendline resitance for the dow ~ 8800 and 960 on the spx....expect major repo jam wed post speech ...plan to be full short by wed close at the latest...stalking MXIM resistance 42, ELX up big AH on emc news and SPX...TRADE SAFE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 I agree, LoU, although I've been thinking that we may have seen a crapitulation bottom in telecom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fartpolio Manager Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 Not really FM, but if you'd like to pat yourself on the back that's fine by me too. You're so good, I wish I could be just like you. BTW, what did you short on Dec 2nd? OK, since your memory failed you here's a few highlights from IDS 12/2/02. 10:14 ET: (FM) How bout those 2 wet mops they needed on the open down at the NYSE and the Nas this morning... it used to just be Maria's orgasms we had to put up with.... That sure looked like a blowoff top this morning... Dan Niles will once again fall on his sword with his idiotic Intel call... 10:41ET: (PD) I'm 100% confident in my analysis/indicators I'm 100% scared to push the trade button equals: we are at a major frick'n TOP! Sell Mortimer, SELL! (Crawford top date call: 11/29-12/4) 10:53ET: (FM)Hey, where's Bearman and Pile Driver.... I wanna see some Big Red "DIE PIG"s on my screen... 10:54ET: (PD)FM, I'm still waiting for technical price confirmation but it is looking very encouraging. At least a 4-8 EMA crossover sell signal and trend line break before I jump. Aroon, DMI/ADX confirmation would be nice too. We'll see but I can smell the roast pig right now. I'm sure that refreshes your memory, and for the record I was short contract mfrs at that juncture... added semi shorts that day. Here's the thread of that "turnaround" monday, you knew it was the top, but you doubted yourself... http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...T&f=3&t=56&st=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 This bear is screwing with too many heads. Why not see it as a pure reflection of the preceding bull? If not true, please don't tell me; this 'delusion' is comfortable....and profitable. Who believes that Doc's long term Cmaps are wrong? I would hesitate before repudiating Hurst cycles. Take another look and see exactly where the limits are. We hit some today, which calls into question the upside impact of the 13 week cycle......and continues to raise the specter of the yet under-rated impact of the longer cycles (6 and 12 month).....which are hardly bottoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 7, 2003 Report Share Posted January 7, 2003 OK. You are both smart. But, can you smell a fart and know it's a fart and not shite in the pants. :grin: :grin: :wink2: Stop it!. Everybody is entitled to an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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