Jump to content

Flameout


Recommended Posts

Mark's Market Commentary - January 14, 2002

 

I will have to apologize for the brief commentary. My computer flamed out and I was unable to watch much of the market today.

 

More cracks in the Credit Bubble are being noted in The Wall Struck Journal.

 

Who is holding the bag on the telecom debt bombs hidden in inside Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDO?s)?

 

?Banks shielded themselves from much of the fallout by using highly engineered financial products to shift part of the risk to myriad other investors: insurance companies, pension funds, hedge funds, and an assortment of other unlikely buyers.?

 

?The risk is out there somewhere, it didn?t all get buried in a mine in Azerbaijan?, says Simon Harris, head of corporate banking at Oliver Wyman.

 

The insurance companies who have bought these CDO?s are the same guys writing credit insurance to others? losses on CDOs and derivatives. The Hillbilly Circle Jerk continues.

 

?Meanwhile, the market for derivative products continues to expand. The overall size of the global credit-derivative market has grown from $180 billion to nearly $2 trillion the last five years.?

 

In the meantime, nobody really knows where all of the losses are. Maybe they are out there, but nobody has recognized the losses yet. That?s why Al Green has been pumping, to make sure all the bagholders have enough cash so they don?t have to start selling underwater speculative investments to meet their obligations.

 

?So much corporate debt, so many defaults. Chalk it up to elastic accounting rules that companies can easily game to mask their losses.?

 

?Recently, many large banks have been crowing that they successfully shifted much of the corporate debt-related risks off their books through complicated packages of sliced and diced side deals.?

 

As for the market action, I was waiting for Dan "The Greaseman" Niles to issue a buy signal on INTC with a $30 price target. That would have triggered a definitive sell signal.

 

Unfortunately, the signal never came, meaning that the top is probably not in yet.

 

Buddha has some choice words about this matter:

 

"In my opinion, all these crooks like Niles who are still front and center and scamming 24/7 should be put on notice that they are being monitored daily by the FBI. That includes that Kumar guy out of Palo Alto and all the so called self proclaimed prominent dog track gamers posing as anal cysts. Any anal cyst still in prominence should just have a tail put on him. End of story."

 

"Grubman, of course, was just the ugly tip of the iceberg and the fact that they didn't dust off a room for him in Rikers with Leroy and Big Dwayne is indication enough that Grasso and the rest are hoping to go back to business as usual as quickly as possible."

 

"What is needed is about a dozen moles in these Houses of Ill Repute, complete with wires on them at both the trading and anal cyst desks with complete logs of conversations at up and downgrade junctures and during earnings announcement scams. This would blow the whole Market wide open and create sudden and seismic clearing to 50% discount levels inside of about a month of revelation."

 

"Of course this will never happen. The fox does not perform gastro intestinal surgery on himself in order to remove chicken eggs and bits of breast and thigh. And Grubman will find some other venue of griftage now that he has paid his fine and is underground. Probably resurface with a multimillion dollar book deal inside of two years and then sign on in Reno to do magic tricks at Harrah's and run a prostitution ring out of Lake Tahoe for old business associates like Tin Man Welch and that Global Crossing psychopath."

 

As for today's market action, too difficult to tell if this is the beginning of a slide. Note that we have a small bull flag consolidation going, which could be marking time for another screamer run to the upside based on some Special K-induced euphoria casting call announcement out of QLGC.

 

Buddha's take:

 

"As discussed yesterday, a favorite Racketeering strategy is to reverse spike of Wednesdays of the infamous OE week. True intention of Hoods and Bosses is down, they have tipped their hand now and are in process of vaporizing some retail call positions. Again, why is gold up as predicted? Because it has been sold for 3 days and is once again trading right off of rotation in equities. Takes no ghost come from the grave to tell thee that Horatio."

 

"In my opinion what is most important about today is its the first good signal of operational intention on part of Capone, Nitty, Lansky and the other camel haired coats that are working the waterfront as we speak. Up until now all we have had to go by is using the radar of COT reports which show them lining up short and against idiot retail which is accumulating calls. This changed with the huge candle into the false open this morning."

 

"Does the death grind begin from here? Does Gandalf begin his death dance with the Balrog and wrestle the hideous monster all the way down into the pits of Isengaard? Once the psychological 1400 is taken out I think so. Pigmen should hold it over this level thru end of week. Divergence on 5/15 reads to 1410 or so, then the next battle begins. Pig-Orcs flooding in from Mordor should attempt to deceive at these levels early next week."

 

As usual, the real "New Bull Market" in gold stocks is acting properly. Those who sold yesterday or put tight stops in were blown out at the end of yesterday's trading and the gap down on the open today. And the vultures who have been waiting to get in on a severe dip piled in, sending the gold shares in a sharp reversal to the upside. I don't think the correction is over, but I think Friday will be the last day to load up as long as the downside volume doesn't accelerate.

 

I was tempted to short one of the miners as a hedge yesterday. That would have proved to be disasterous.

 

No change in positions.

 

Full commentary will resume tomorrow.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 97
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I thought I heard Maria on crapvision say that although Niles lowered his 03 eps outlook on INTC from .65 to .60, he was doing it only because of being in a higher tax bracket, or some nonsense to that effect. :o She also quoted him as saying that he's an aggressive buyer of INTC on any weakness. Maybe not a buy, but he's still touting the POS, isn't he?

 

Did AAPL lower guidance on Q1 '03 ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

JPM bullish on bullion - Predicts $430 in "Coming Years" :o

 

JP Morgan's anal cysts say gold's narrowing trading range to

US$3/oz from US$7/oz "portends a breakout in coming days or

weeks" and that only a breach of the key US$330/oz, then

US$316/oz supports "would reverse the current uptrend."

 

Gold must now stay above supports at $350.50 and $345/oz,

as breaches of those would signal that the bull run has stalled

in the short term, while a bearish correction unfolds, the report said.

 

"Until then, stay long," the anal cysts recommend,

suggesting opening long positions at US$352.25/oz.

 

http://biz.yahoo.com/djus/030114/2119000864_1.html

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I wouldn't worry too much about those gold positions. Seems it'sa safer bet to stay in than to be out.

 

UPDATE 2-White House sees deficits for "foreseeable future"

 

 

(Adds details, background)

 

By Adam Entous

 

WASHINGTON, Jan 15 (Reuters) - President George W. Bush's

budget director said on Wednesday he expects the U.S.

government to run deficits for the "foreseeable future," with

shortfalls of $200 billion to $300 billion this fiscal year and

next that could be the biggest on record.

 

http://www.reuters.com

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As for the market action, I was waiting for Dan "The Greaseman" Niles to issue a buy signal on INTC with a $30 price target. That would issue a definitive sell signal.

 

I thought he was on Crappervision yesterday after they announced and put a $25-30 price target on it. If not, it was one of those other "Indian doodz"!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...