Bear Season Over So Soon?

[Yoshaviah]

Bears are not the smartest animals in the woods. If they smell a little honey they will always walk right into a trap. So now I ask myself, ?Has Easy Al the trapper painted the charts to get the bears all worked up?? Well, yea, I think he has. Now I might be wrong this time. But recall that I was right the last time :grin:

[mjkst27]

[PileDriver]

actually both bull and bear seasons have been over since Oct:

 

SPX

10/21/02 899

12/17/02 900

 

Nowhere fast.

 

Upside risk 900 to 950

Downside reward 900 to 650

 

Sit in BEARX or sit in cash?

[Yoshaviah]

<_

[PileDriver]

ha, I love the reply. Good one :grin:

 

I agree with you, I'm just hedging my bets, instead of sitting in cash until its safe again to begin aggressively shorting I'd rather park my money in BEARX instead of cash. What happens if this sideways garbage suddenly busts out to the downside? The TA odds favor a breakdown. Might as well make something on it. If I'm wrong no big loss in BEARX as SPX 960 isn't that far off.

 

I see it as we are still very near the top of a massive distribution trading range. Each time it wanders near the top of range I accumulate more realizing that I'll never pick the precise top in price and time - let's be for real here.

 

Later when the downtrend becomes more clear and the levitation antics are over, I'll convert low beta BEARX over to more aggressive shorting strategies, etc. like I did last Spring.

 

Remember the Stoolie Shortfolio I illustrated in September? Can't wait to build one of those babies again. I haven't yet b/c Mr Marke is telling me not to. Been that way ever since the "Idiot's rally" began Oct 9th.

 

Trading strategy must match your personal style but also the market's current personality. Right now we know Mr Marke is schizophrenic.

 

I agree, short high beta glams now and get your ass handed to ya but there are safer interim alternatives.

[Yoshaviah]

I was perched on a telephone pole the other day and a black bird landed next to me and said, "If you want to make money buy the Qs at the open on Wednesday and sell when they gap it up on Thursday morning to a higher high." I said, "How do I know you are telling me the truth." He said, "You don't." Then just before he flew off he said, "Go short after you sell at the higher high on Thursday and cover Friday at the close." I said, "Hey, wait." But he flew off before I could find out why he thought it would happen this way. I am not sure, but I think I saw this bird perched on a window ledge at the Federal Reserve building yesterday afternoon

[PileDriver]

Thanks, I'll be watching.

[DogBoy]

A strategy I used last summer with great results was to switch to more aggressive PUTz (less time) once it was clear we were in a steep decline.

 

Here is how it went:

 

1) I had bought QQQ and DJX puts (DEC 02) when the DOW was at about from 9500 down to 9000. I stopped accumulating puts when the DOW broke 9000 for good.

 

2) When we hit about 8200 on the DOW and it was pretty apparent we were in a very sttep decline I sold all of the DEC 02 Putz and re-invested 1/2 in AUG 02 Putz.

 

3) Rode the AUG PUTz down and sold at about 7600 DOW. That one very much thanks to DOC for a great call on the turn.

 

I think that a strategy of starting with conservative Bearish strategies and then switching to more agressive ones when a big down wave is clear is a good one.

 

Of course when I first started was when the NAZ was in a very steep decline so I'd buy PUTz only a month or two away fuly expecting a huge gain

 

Then APR 01 came along and I got the ass whoppin on my life. Fortunately I always had practice (and to this day) of taking 1/2 off the table so the damage was limited.

 

Then in the next down wave (the 9/11 wave) I bought very conservative DEC 01 PUTZ around the market top (or where it appeared to be topping out).

 

I just rode them down and sold 'em. Made some nive profits but not a fortune.

 

Then it struck me that starting with a conservative strategy and then getting more and more agressive as the Piggo started rolling over more was the way to go.

 

The key thing is that an evolving strategy is the way to go. You can't just buy some crap and ride it for all it's worth.

 

Also, you have to know when to bail out -- the old "live to play another game" slogan.

 

So far I've only had to apply that one once and that was in Fall 01 when I bought PUTz too quick thinking that the world was coming to an end and when Mr Market started zooming on me I bailed.

 

Fortunataley it was like DEC 01 and the losess from that mini-debacle just offset some of the earlier gains and provided a nice tax dodge. Had I incurred losses like that in JAN I'd have been pissed and more than a little worried. I would have had to eat ham sandwiches and drink Old Milwaukee beer the a few months to work off that.

[Goldilocks]

That is just it. I am sorry. But some of you people just go to damn far. I cannot fathom what in the hell you are thinking some times. First of all, just a couple days ago a fellow stoolie confessed to actually running out of beer. Running out of beer! The worst part about it was the non-chalance with which it was stated! Incorrigible!

As if this stupendous breach of personal responsibility to one's aesthetic self was not enough now Dogboy has confessed to nearly endangering his finances to the point of having to drink Old Mud!?!?!?! OLD MUD!?!?!?! What the hell is wrong with you people? Get some damn perspective. Definitely get some better beer.

 

I apologize for the run on sentence structure but I am just beside myself. I mean Old Mud for cripes sake!

[Drano]

Well, at least it wasn't Rolling Rock.

[Grand Poopercycle]

My pappy used to drink Wiedemann's. Goldi, aren't you in Stroh's country if memory serves?

[ThorAss]

Here in Indonesia the beer of choice is Bintang but we call all beer by its class handle, aka PISS, even imported stuff like the ever popular Tiger from Singapour. Bintang means star but if you pronounce it wrong you get binatang or animal so here we have a choice between Tiger PISS or Animal PISS. Actually I prefer to stick to wine. Anyone for a cheeky little Aussie Merlot?

[Goldilocks]

Stroh's makes some damn fine Ice Cream. Beer? No Tanks. I'll stick to Sam Adam's for domestics. For an import you simply cannot beat Guiness. Although Grolsch comes close. As for the watered down urine most of my peers drink........ blech....... For cripes sake.... If you are going to take some years off your life by drinking you might as well do it in style. Same goes for smoking. No cigarettes for me unless they are the despised cloves. They smell better and have a kick like nothing else that's legal. Again, you must die in style if nothing else......lol. So far as other, healthier, yet illegal methods to knock yourself around go..... Only criminals of the worst caliber partake of such heinous herbs. Reefer madness ain't just a fairy tale ya know! It will drive you to rape, pillage, and destroy all around you. Well, if it's in a refrigerator anyway.

[machinehead]

"Reefer madness ain't just a fairy tale ya know!"

 

You talkin' about that 'wheelchair weed' that produces the dreaded 'couchlock' syndrome?

[BAREister]

That would go a 'long' way to explaining your BEHAVIOR Mr TwoScrewsLoose!!! LOLOL :grin:

 

Com'ON, Yoyo. Betcha it doesn't happen.

 

There is a better import than Guiness: MURPHY'S.

 

Whaddabout "Nat-Bo" (National Bohemian?) it used to be good FART beer!!! LOL