DrStool Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 That Time of the Month 9/16/02 It's that time of the month boys and girls. What time is that? Why, scam week of course. It's the time when options market makers do their damndest to force stock prices to exactly the point where it will do them the most good and the customers the least, what they call max pain. It's the time of the month when Doc is in max pain, because short term cycles act crazy. So, Doc's in a bad mood. He can't prognosticate very well at all, he's just so anxious and depressed from all this crazy stuff going on in the market. It' JUST CRAZY, and Doc can't take it any more! Fortunately scam week only lasts 5 days. After that everything will get back to normal and Doc will be his good old own self again. It's up to the rest of us to all be a little more tolerant around this time of the month each month. Right gang? For the rest of the story, stoolies, log in, or if you're not a stoolie already, become one Now! Just click the link below. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGakaTheBigHurt Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 What a mess this cycle picture is now. Too much of "it could go this way or it could go that way"... Not a criticism of Doc, just that right now everything seems to be out of gear. Feels like we're doing E-wave here Patience on the intermediate term showing its hand and short term scalps will have to rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metamucil Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 1425 on Nasdaq will satisfy me for a silly right shoulder that is causing minor psychological breakdowns amongst fellow bears. Bear fear is good. SPX has minimal upside; same scenario. Buck just fell out of bed. Nurse is on her way. Code Blue is on. Gold up some more....heading for $340. I don't think the Cmaps have been misleading at all. The 12 monther deserves some respect....just some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 Doc, I can see where this is headed for you....until now, I have thought of you as the Wayne Gretzky or Mario Lemieux of Hurst cycle analysis....free-flowing analysis, seeing the open ice, anticipating the action, getting the puck in good position, delivering the score. Now it seems like all month is OE, the goons have gotten bigger, stronger and faster, the ice smaller, goal narrower, and there's a piece of plywood for a goalie. It's all muck and grind now. All games end 1-0 in favor da boyz. Doc, if you hang 'em up now, we'll put you right in the hall of fame without the 5 year wait. Whaddya think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anoscope Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 a mulligan for doc http://www.nashvillekey.com/archives/1999/...go/mulligan.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DogBoy Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 Doc, I find myself incredulous at your long term view of the market. From a geo-political, economic, and fundamental point of view I can't see amy scenario in which the market could even trade sideways more than 2-3 weeks into next year much less rally to any extent. My opinion is that we go down HARD in February and then rally into March (a brief one) and then go down hard again and again until next fall. I see this whole thing as a carbon copy of 2002. The only difference is that the numbers have changed (they're all lower). Maybe Da Boyz are really startin to sound like a broken record. I see the probability of a major disaster (or disasters) in the middle east, korea or elsewhere as something like 90% in the next few months. The whole world is like a powder keg waiting for someone to light the fuse. And there is a guy who lives in Penn Ave with a large book of matches. There is no sign of any increase in earnings. Everywhere people are getting laid off. The car companies sold every car you could possibly sell and the realtors sold every house that can be sold (some 2-3 times). The credit bubble is over. AG is just pushing on a string. The entire world is royally pissed at the US gubmint. Returns on Treasuries are pitiful compared the the event risk and weakness in the US economy. What else do you need to beleive that the pig can't possibly go up into next year except for the usual january games they play to trick folks into sending their 401K dough. And it didn't work last year even though the markets were much higher and the economy was much stronger, sales were good, etc. etc. Do I need to take the shirt off my back and mail it to you to to prove that I'm serious when I say that this (possible) scenario you outlined in the Anals tonight can't be true ? Doc, please tell me it isn't so. Come on, I'm just a puuur Bear tryin to make another million to make my Dear Muffy happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 17, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 All I said was that it could go sideways into March, before breaking down big. That's pretty square with your view Dgby, right? Isn't it? Besides, the fucutures are off to a good start in the right direction this morning. I am whipsaw hear me roar! In closing Doc said... "What, you ask, might change the outlook. For starters, the scammers could reverse Monday's gain fast. It may not be completely far fetched. The daily chart indicators are not signaling that Monday's rally was significant in any way. It may have been nothing more that yet another well executed fake out by the stage managers."? Don't worry. Just 3-4 more days and Doc will be good as new. It's just that time of the month thing. And Tigger, cycles are not "messed up," they are "juxtaposed." Which is what causes such boundless rangeboundedness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 17, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 WOW! Check out Uncle Buck and the Golden Stool this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coboy Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 After taking countless beatings in OE weeks, I have found not one but two great, failsafe trading systems.. Those are million dollar systems and since I am a nice guy I am publishing here without asking anything.. 1. - Every year, start with $1000 - In OE monday morning at 9:30 am, buy front month at the money MXIM,KLAC,MERQ calls. - Put a sell order for double the price you paid for calls. - Go enyoj life until next month.. - Repeat the same process 12 times a year, you'll just work 12 days a year and guaranteed to make more than 4 million dollars.. 2. - Start with whatever amount, doesn't matter, the more the better. - Wait for market to look like everything is going to an end.. (How many time that happened this year ?) - Buy aggressively out of the money calls on ELX, QLGC, MXIM, MERQ, EXPE, the more expensive the better. - Come in four weeks and sell everyhing.. - I believe by using this system you can make even more than 4 million $.. OF course, you can always start with 4 million $ and try to short those stocks and get squeezed till your eyes pop and end up with 2 million $ at the end of the year.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 17, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 coboy- You look like you could use a little use there fella. Gotta get out of the house more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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