simple guy Posted December 16, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 Monday update Futures up, big deal. Sticking with 975 NDX gap fill, or 24.55 on the QQQ index this week... any ST rally is a shorting opportunity. Im in cash right now though, unless we get some stupid rally this morning that lasts more than 10 minutes.... heh heh... waiting for 1051-1065 on NDX to re-short... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 16, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 From last Saturdays first post on this board by me: So... my plan is to sit tight, hope the gaps fill early in the week. Let the year end mini rally play out to 1051 range.... Looks like Option 2 is happening I think.... Wave 1 looks like it must have ended on Friday night last week when I covered. I expected 975 NDX gap to fill first, but instead today the market moved up.... indicating a wave 1 bottom last Friday... So... that said... 38% and 50% retracements should take the NAS to about 1420 or 1440 Those numbers make sense to me... I did not enter any positions today until I can distinguish what the hell wave we are in... but it must be wave 2 corrective. Some peeps are labeling it an A B C, A down to 1362, B up to 1420-1440 or whatever... and C back down.... Im looking for 26.40 or so on the QQQ to re-short.... Cash was king today, unless you were able to scalp longs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pretzel Logic Posted December 16, 2002 Report Share Posted December 16, 2002 SG, I concur with your "Simple Guy Analysis." Thanks for taking the time to post it. Looks to me like we'll start down "fer real" in mid-January or so. Hey DOC, whaddaya think about giving SG his own forum on the board, like Mark, et al, have? "Simple Guy's E-wave Analysis" or some such thing. Assuming Simple Guy agrees, of course. It would obviously be a very popular spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 Excellent, let's get it over with quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 SG, I concur with your "Simple Guy Analysis." ?Thanks for taking the time to post it. ?Looks to me like we'll start down "fer real" in mid-January or so. ? Hey DOC, whaddaya think about giving SG his own forum on the board, like Mark, et al, have? ?"Simple Guy's E-wave Analysis" or some such thing. ?Assuming Simple Guy agrees, of course. ?It would obviously be a very popular spot. Great suggestion. If you are not interested in a regular forum or, if Doc can not accomodate (Hi Doc :grin:), please post a thread on LOB as regularly as you can. There are days like today at my job where they make me work for a living and I can't follow IDS (and your posts therein) as closely as I would like. This has been a very informative and entertaining thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 I vote for continuing with the thread. Dealing with a whole forum looks like a lot of work for a simple guy. Look at all the work Dr. B. has put in on his forum. And Yobob gave up on his because it was too much work and not much feedback. Let SG do his SG thaing! But I do like having his posts all together, because reading through the whole IDS thread sometimes fill my head with crap which screws up my trading. Love the thread. Keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 17, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 SG can keep this thread going if OK with Doc, up to him. Updating my current take I cant get a firm read on the NDX-QQQ here. Today we moved up to 26.20, but still didnt quite hit my 26.40 ish targets for a gap fill to signal a wave 2 top... Also, COMPX tested the Thursday intra-day high today, and backed off quickly, ran into sellers... lots of nervous bulls out there... as evidenced by a still high P/C ratio, which is really not too great ST for bears... Bottom line, Im hoping for a good sized mini-rally into the close to 26.30 or 26.40 or so on Q's, where I would be very tempted to re enter my short position. The Spiders look ready to rollover and test 873 or so soon. I dont think the santa rally should have started yet, I think one more leg down should occur here.... So for now, remaining in cash, the E wave patterns not clear to me so I stick with my rules and do nothing until they clear up. NDX gaps at 975 remain, and 1051-1065 remain.... need to be filled.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 17, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 OOPS SG noted that my 1051 NDX gap DID FILL This morning... ah-ha!!!!!! Down we go to 975 NDX... finally!! The Waves are clear now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoodwinked Posted December 17, 2002 Report Share Posted December 17, 2002 SG your efforts are much appreciated. If you have time, a lesson in the "SG ewave method" would be a big help to us ewave challenged types. {Never hurts to ask} Tanks for your posts here and over on IDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 18, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 18, 2002 SG updates take fwiw Stayed in cash into the close. Not closing under 25.74 to me indicates leg up is not yet filled. We did see 26.20 today, but 26.40 to 26.80 are my more ideal retrace targets to re enter shorts on Q's. NDX hit 1052 today, above my cited 1051 I mentioned last several trading days... problem is, thats too shallow really I think.... 1055 to 1061 would hit the bare minimums for a wave 2 ending corrective upward move. So... I continue to look for 26.40 on the QQQ, 1055-1061 on the NDX before shorting.... Sorry I cant give much more opinion than that... experience and gut tells me to sit tight a bit yet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simple guy Posted December 19, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 19, 2002 SG updates So, we are where we were last Fri night when I covered.. HO HUM Waiting for gaps to fill up before I jump back in. 26.40 on Q's or higher, 1055 or higher on NDX, 1420 or higher on NAS we shall see... not much more to add... I let the market come to me, I dont chase it... After 4 days.. QQQ where it was last Fri night when I closed out... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted December 19, 2002 Report Share Posted December 19, 2002 If Simple Guy would like his own forum, he could certainly have it. It is a bit of a burden though. A heavy responsibility indeed. As an alternative, instead of having only one thread, perhaps Sim (I hope you don't mind Doc calling you Sim for short, as friends would do :wink2: ), could open a new thread perhaps oncec a week. Call it something like Simple Guy's Simple Outlook for the week of December 22, or something. Many Tanks, Sim! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DONOTKNOWSHIT Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 Yes, SG, please add your own forum. But, do not post on it once a week but nightly. Your calls have been the best of the lot. Would like to see them nightly on a forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sniff Posted December 20, 2002 Report Share Posted December 20, 2002 I have a qqq question..... Recently, as we all know, the qubes got their latest juggle. In with the crap, out with the crappiest. The most noticable thing was.... 13 out of the 15 that got kicked out were Tech stocks. Effective Dec.23. They were replaced buy much less volitale stocks. I seen the list and didn't pay much attention. FAST was on the list, they make screws and assorted fasteners. I think most of the other additions were of this nature. Therefore, will this take the excessive volitiliy out of the QQQ? I think maybe, this index will trade more like the S&P, and we may not get the guarenteed big drops we have come to know and love.... Don't get me wrong, It's going down. We may just see some slackening of the pace and fewer wild swings What do you think? anybody........ SG, I hope you do not mind what I post even though it may seem contrarian at times. I just read it off the charts. The QQQ are sitting dead on at the bottom of a parallel upslopeing daily trading channel @ 25.19...... tomorrow will be pivotal. Either the price drops below the channel and may be the start of a new pattern but not confirmed for 2 days or the price climbs up and stays within the up channel..... Then the bulls can give Santa a kiss...... *If * the qqq stays with in that upslopeing channel, one might as well hang onto their dongs because that channel top is currently above 30....... notice that IF at the beginning of the last sentence.. if, if, if Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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