Goldmember Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 I agree, the Twilight Zone indeed: when I see Hyper's chart and ponder that 35 states have sold bonds to buy stocks......at a wild hysteric topping zone.....this flush will be memorable for many things..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fukui-san Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 f-san Thanks for the mini-movie and the link. It looks like China's best can put some of our major cities to shame. Glad you and others found it interesting. I always enjoy visiting Chicago. The people who designed the waterfront showed real civic vision. And if you enjoy architecture like I do, then it's a dilletante's delight, especially Frank Lloyd Wright. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whadda I Do Whadda I Do Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Here in San Diego, I observe gas guzzling trucks like the jimmies with for sale signs in the windows quite often now. Also "For Rent" signs in every suburb where the moving season is suppose to be over till september. Taffic is lighter in the rush hours. Gas is running $1.63 a gallon today. This is a military town first then manufacturing due to the border having assembly plants on one side and home bases on the other, then tourism (oh boy, over-the-line tournament happening right now). I work for a property management company (6th largest countywide) on the maintenance/construction side along with RE brokers, property manager, leasing agents and of course the bean counters based out of La Jolla (another Rancho Sante Fe). Apartment and office vacancies are at 5% and rising, wharehouse unlet approaching 10%, these figures are within the company's domain. Worse figures using the whole market place. Still near the beach they ask and get $1000 bucks for a one bedroom apartment. California always lags in a downturn especially Southern California and recovers late. (The dollar held today, scary) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Feeling compelled to relate. I always either had a good job or was gainfully self-employed in either a trade or shop. I have been at different times a professional printer, photographer, steel mill worker, oil filed worker, realtor, appraisor, data processing company owner, retail store owner, wholsale warehouse owner, senior computer programmer, city board chairman, and I can't remember all what else right now, But my point is this - I have a son and daughter who I would love to back in their own businesses and they would like to do that in their fields of interest, but we looked at the market and possibilities and all we see is high risk and low reward options. My son would love to set up a music store, and he has worked at Sam Ash, and does gigs - but try competing with them. I know. When I was just a bit older than he I had a music store that grew into a significant distribution center similar to a Recordbar but much cooler. I made a lot of money with it, and employed lots of college kids and folks. I had 90 day accounts with all the majors - RCA, CBS, WB, MCA etc direct. I was computerized and always paid on time. Always. Then when a co calle Peaches opened on the same street he targeted me to put out. My computer program told me in march one year ('82) I think that by September I would be out of pocket. Something like Hypers doomsday senario. Ok, so I immediately ordered hundreds of the most popular items and then went delinquent on my bill paying just enough to keep current. I filled my warehouse outlets full of Michael Jackson and the Eagles - whatever was hot - I loaded everybody up - why? Just to get my return credits up. then I boxed up all the old stale product and got return authorizations approved ( ahh computers!). Everything went on pallets to return. The lease was up, the crditors were called - they got product - I kept the cash. I recommend this method - it works - just don't tell anybody your going out. Say business is great! Oh - Warner backed Peaches with credit lines worth millions and Peaches didn't pay its bills. F..ked everybody when it went out. So back to my sons interests - he wants to do it to, I want to help him - but I know what the taxes, leases, cod for a year, and having a frickin mega store in town means when you want to be an entrepreneur. My daughter is a bakery manager and has ideas for a business. Same issues - mainly mega-store competition. She agrees with me that right now might be a bad time to start up. Point is - it was easy to grow a business then, but not now. Hell - even Bozo could do it. Now you risk your ass and expect to loose. I trade, but would rather do other things. It's the system in my opinion. If your a criminal you can win or if your a glutton for punishment you can just make a living. I always want to know what can be done to fix things. For starters I would like to see a five year tax benefit for start ups. ie - NO taxes for entrepreneur businesses asside from licensing and utility. And no taxes on wages for same. None. This would let little guys sell crap cheaper than Wal-mart. Then other guys (gals too) could make the shit to sell. It would employ many people very fast. Then we could extend Hypers 7-11 month scenerio out a few months..maybe. Remember you heard it here first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigWave Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 I, in partnership with 2 people, own a small manufacturing business which makes a semi-specialized, low tech part used in the replacement of roof top HVAC units. We design the part specifically for the application, but can then resell it again when the opportunity arises as these applications can repeat. Nothing fancy, plasma cut or shear various types of sheet metal, break into shape, and weld together. Certain barriers to entry exist as the design of the part requires an expertise that is more experience than knowledge, but the part is VERY important to the proper operation of the new HVAC unit so we are compensated well, 40-50% gross margins. (Of course when we f*ck-up, it's fixable but expensive.. Have 15 shop workers and last nite, we had a big project that had to ship by 1:00 am in order to meet the customer's expected delivery time in Oklahoma. Freight carrier is standing by and my guys are working like spartans in 100 degree, 100% humidity conditions. I'm wilting just standing in the shop. As I watched these guys, who make from $8-14 an hour, working with such purpose and getting it on the road by Midnite, I thought about how what we were doing was such a basic and fundamental way of making money. Since the beginning of commerce,men and women have turned raw materials into finished goods employing tools, labor, experience, and ingenuity. Like the trading of gold or silver, this has been a constant thru the ages. In the Hyper scenario, this will also survive. During the day, I sit in my office and occasionally trade as time permits and when I make some coin, I feel good (as Fast Eddie said, "money won is twice as sweet as money earned), but not like when we ship a project successfully and the funds clear. Maybe I'm a sucker, but I like the thought of being part of what's left of American manufacturing. Some times when we bicker on CS, I think of my guys covered in sweat and grinding in the heat and then I remember how good we have it. Each one of your guys is worth 10,000 traders. Fuki-san you are right. I gave each one a $50 bill on Friday to show a little appreciation and you would have thought it was Christmas how they acted. Had to get my ass back in the office before I got misty.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DryDocker Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Nice post BigWave. In the summer of my 18th year, I worked as a roughneck on oil wells. Toughest and most dangerous thing I've ever done to make a buck. Needless to say, I don't complain much about the price of gas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest AssMaster Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Here's a possibility for investor type, longer term swing traders. Check out the cup and handle. DG Systems, Inc. (DGIT), the leading digital technology provider for managing and delivering short- and long-form audio and video content to broadcasters, has been added to the Russell 3000® Index and Russell 2000® Index. P/E - 22.6 DYODD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BAREister Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Steve Winwood played a pier venue on Seattle's waterfront the UDDER night. The BARE could hear, faintly, strains of the music wafting his way when the wind cooperated. Ticketmaster wASS ASSking $44.50 a pop FUR that ticket. Now Winwood is of HRFF's vintage and he wuz sorely tempted to go see him, live. However, The BARE just won't shell out that kind of dough FUR a concert. It's absurd. Maybe SNOT FUR front row(s) seating, buttFUR? anything less it's idiotic. Professional sporting events are ridiculously expensive. Ditto the movies. It's just plain NUTS. Meanwhile in BARE's immediate neighborhood, productivity is at all time highs. There's a new restaraunt every two feet. They're crammed full of people (including HRFF from time to time now that he no longer has his POSSLQ to cook FUR 'im) running up credit card debt. Two mint juleps will set ya back $15. They're asking $5 FUR a pint of Murphy's at the Irish bar in the Pike Place Market. Tonight HRFF went out to enjoy the cool summer zephyr's and sat hisself down at a cafe up the street. An Italian woman with an elegantly chiseled classic Roman countenance and gentle eyes, fluent in the melodic cadence of her native tongue sat with her friend next to his table. He listened to the conversation and could not help stealing an occasional glance at her. He could have been in a cafe in Rome. Evidently she traveled with some regularity to BRAZIL, and was lamenting how sad it made her. It was beautiful, she said, speaking, inter alia, of Rio, but also elsewhere. But the poor people were everywhere. She kept repeating how sad it was to visit there and see how the other half? lives. Or TRIES to live. That omnipresent reality made it impossible for her, at least, to enjoy much of what the country had to offer, visually or UDDERwise. HRFF listened to this and watched the hyperexpensive cars glide by on the street a few feet away. And he means HYPER expensive. LOTS of 'em. He thought, in light of her remarks of Warren Buffet's remark about how EVERY American, globally speaking, has won the genetic lottery. FUR the time being, anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 DG Systems, Inc. (DGIT) AM - interesting. I'd put an alarm on 2.50 and consider it if it gets there. As you indicate - could happen in just days or a bit longer. Been seeing this pattern a lot recently. Pile - lessee - top of this - top of that - peak here - peak there - I feel like we just climbed mt. everlast. Now which way do you think we go from here? To the stratosphere? Beyond? Forever and ever? Got wings? Oh check out the sun. Don't forget the sunblock. http://www.n3kl.org/sun/images/noaa_satenv.gif? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tpark Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 I've had good jobs, mostly electronics or computer related. The first business of my own (a repair shop) failed, but I learned a lot from that experience. I worked at technology companies, and learned what kind of disaster poor money and resource management can bring. From the business owner point of view, I'm concerned about what the future holds, and an economic collapse could wipe out my business. I can understand why so many are in denial about the coming economic downturn - its easier to pretend nothing is wrong than to accept that there is a severe problem that will wipe out many people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GregFokker Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Excellent thread this weak end. Hypertiger, that latest is one of your best. I've been watching the treasuries pretty closely, and it looks like the tens have hit a relative bottom. Al Green drained big today and drained net this week, and yet the TNX closed lower anyway. This indicates to me a good underlying bid for treasuries. The TNX closed right on its recent ascending daily trendline. A break below should target at least the year lows. Could anyone with some experience tell me more about trading t-bond futures? I've started trading equity futures and find it far better and safer than options, with better trading tools, better liquidity, more effective stops, etc. I'd like to be long treasuries, but buying yield puts or selling yield calls doesn't cut it as the market on those options is too thin. Would really appreciate whatever knowledge/advice you can share on it. I have the contract details at this link: http://www.interactivebrokers.com/index.html. But between say, the ZN and ZN3 contracts (see link), I have no clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Great concerts? Most memorable anyway? The Beatles, Red Rocks Amphitheatre, Denver, Colorado, August 1964. Lead-in act: The Righteous Brothers. Did about 15 songs, favorites were Roll Over Beethoven and Hard Day's Night. I had just turned 13, and the tickets were a birthday present. Could barely hear the band for all the screaming girls, but the memory is indelible. They never came there again. Darkdoc, I saw the Beatles here in Chicago on that same tour. They performed at the now demolished Amphitheater, out by the Stockyards. (I don't think the original Mayor Daley liked the Beatles). I also recall the incredible, constant teenie girl screaming. Also recall how good they were, sounding live just like their recordings, which was uncommon in those days for live performances. I've always wanted to see a concert at Red Rocks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chibear Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Sign of Times (article leadin from the NYT Real Estate Section): In the Hamptons, It's All Altitude By ALEX KUCZYNSKI There's a surge in weekend commuting by helicopter, mainly because people are fed up with the hot, honking, congested, gas-guzzling, are-we-there-yet car traffic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
summoner Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Interesting observation from JR @ longwaves: Gann said that the July 17 is a very important change of trend day. He signed most of his books on that day. I have checked the SP futures contract since 1982 (the starting day) and found the following: 7/19/82 Top and then decline of 13% 7/18/83 Low 7/17/84 High 7/17/85 Top and then decline of 9% 7/17/86 Low 7/22/87 High 7/15/88 High 7/20/89 High 7/13-16/1990 Top and then decline of 21% 7/18/91 High 7/16/92 High 7/14/93 High 7/18/94 High 7/17/95 High 7/16/96 Major low 7/18/97 Low 7/20/98 Top and then decline of 22% 7/16-19/1999 Top and then decline of 11% in 17 days 7/17/00 Top and then decline of 7% in 9 days 7/19/01 High and then decline of 5% in 3 days 7/17/02 High and then decline of 17% in 5 days 7/17/03 ?? Through all these years there were 3 lows on that day and 18 highs recorded on that day. So it looks that Gann was right. The only question remains is what day will mark the change of trend this month? Mistersoftee reports next week on the 17 of July! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ned38 Posted July 12, 2003 Report Share Posted July 12, 2003 Great M to M this weekend. I even appreciated Hypertigers post. It was a good one Best Concert ?????????? Tough one because I have been to so many during my mis-spent youth. But one will always stand out as an oddessy, a trip in the best sense of the word, a couple of days of being Jack Kerouac, Hunter Tompson, and Huck Finn all rolled into one. This was one for the history books. Actually I believe it really is in the Guiness Book of Records for largest attendance Watkins Glen....................Summer '73 Just me and 600,000 of my closest friends in upstate NY digging the Allman Bros. The Band , and The Dead, playing all day and all night. Each group playing a 4-5 hour show and then all of 'em up on stage together for a couple of hours at the end of the night/ wee hours. If you know what I'm talkin' about , then you KNOW what I'm talking about Anyway me and a buddy hitchiked from Long Island with plans to meet a contingent of 15 or 20 of our compadres at the concert site the next day------right in front of the stage. No sweat right LOL. After several rides from strangers-------hippies---migrant workers----and a tripped out black 'Nam vet who took us to the end of the road whereby he promptly and without worry ditched his green 69 GTO into a drainage ditch and abandoned the car for the long walk up to the top of the hill------a few miles, in sweltering heat--------we arrived at the site. The site already had a quarter of a million people there and they just kept streaming in from all over Being somewhat disoriented by the heat, the crowd, the exhaustion, the journey etc. etc. we decided to relax for a while on the side of the hill adjacent to the stage area and have some food and rest up for the next days show. We would find the rest of the guys tomorrow. So we settled in and listened as the stage crew went through the sound checks. We were sorta facing away from the stage and not paying much attention until after a little while we realized that they were not just pumping tomorrows acts music through the system. The groups were actually playing., partly to work the bugs out of the sound system but moreso because the spirit of the event had even gotten hold of the bands and they felt that since there were already so many people there and it was such a nice night they might as well put on a show. Wow. Each band played for a couple of hours and we just drifted off to sleep serenaded by the best bands in the land, playing for free ,just because they felt like like it. The next day was unbelievable............ Someday maybe I'll write a long version of the events of that couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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