K Wave Rider Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 My take on the Trannies.. The last trip up to 3400 showed a synchronous divergent sell setup out to the 240 min time frame, but the daily was not divergent, indicating the likely outcome was a pullback for a few dayz and then another run at the highs to create the final divergence..so far this is exactly how it is playin' out.. The weekly trannies are very extended ready to roll at any time..the next synchronous sell setup, which should become apparent within days, should be THE sell signal for the trannies.. K-wave. I looked at the trannies in a diffierent way and came up with the same answer. Thanks for your take on this. Would you mind giving your take on BBH for the next few days? Thanks, Turk Hi Turk, Welcome to the gang.. BBH looks to have to rolled over on many time frames..60 to 240 min timeframes all show big resistance now at 140ish.. Heres's a gander at the 120 min..rollover just startin' to get legs here, but looks like test of 140 very possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 I just read an article in the Financial Post which clearly shows what a House of cards we have become. The latest rage for banks is to securitize the Six-Packs Visa and Master Card debt by issuing Bonds in the 4 to 41/2% range which are backed not by the Banks that float the issue but by the SixPacks debt which is owed to the Banks. So the Six-packs make the minimum monthly payment and are close to their limit and the Banks charge 11 to 16+% on said debt and dump said debt in a Bond issue which gets them totally off the hook for 4 to 4-1/2%. CIBC just did the biggest one to date in Canada eh-$1.4 Billion. Some of the Schlumps in a Bond Fund don't even realize they are investing in a fund part of which is backed by their own debts. Which Shell is the pea under -right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TURK Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 Welcome to the gang.. BBH looks to have to rolled over on many time frames..60 to 240 min timeframes all show big resistance now at 140ish.. Heres's a gander at the 120 min..rollover just startin' to get legs here, but looks like test of 140 very possible.. K-Wave, Thanks for the chart!! I thought the worst case SHOULD be a retrace to the moving averages converging at 140. I have 20 Nov poots at 140 strike. Turk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chiefywiefy Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 K-Wave: Re:? Trannies Shouldn't have UPS rolled over from those prior tops?? Looks like a possible measured move up to $90. Talking to UPS employees, they say that when the stock hits 80 a split will be announced. That will probably be the top in the trannies. Could easily see $80 this coming week..it's all lining up.. The truckers and rail workers are talking about their stock like no bear market sell off has ever occured. We are close to a top in the trannies. The only thing about the rails are that there IS a shortage of rail due to non-investment in the infrastructure over the years. As fuel for truckers become more expensive the rail system just can't handle the extra loads. So they do have pricing power. There are always rumors of rail take overs by UPS and/or FDX. So if I were to short the trannies, it wouldn't be the rails. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Icky Twerp Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 DPWN -- Deutsche Post -- DHL / Airborne -- attached Everybody in the shipping business reported 20%+ y-o-y increases this year. . . which have been extrapolated into the future as far as the eye can see. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
depends Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would try to rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs and get short big again. Comon Al, help me out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pistolpapa Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 Pee Brain: I just finished riding the motorcycle around the Hill Section in Manhattan Beach. Unbelievable amount of spec homes going up, all financed by Vineyard National Bank. Took lots of pictures. Will be posting them on realestatebubblewatch.com tonight, maybe. My handle over there is LAHomeflipper............. I'm going to ride up there every two weeks or so to monitor construction progress, number of homes for sale, etc. TEETERING, TEETERING $3 GAS OOOPS! Los Angeles Times (Annette Haddad): ?For the third month in a row, the median price of a Los Angeles County home was flat at about $407,000 in September as the annual rate of appreciation hovered at just above 20%. At the same time, the number of homes sold declined 7.8% from a year earlier, to 10,501, according to DataQuick Information Systems, a La Jolla firm that compiles monthly housing statistics. Last year?s September was the strongest in 15 years?. Still, Los Angeles County hasn?t yet seen any ?significant? price decreases, said John Karevoll, DataQuick?s chief anal cyst. From Friday's Doug Noland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soup Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 My guess: When oil retraces , as all mkts do, the trannies will get killed. Every fricking moron fumble mgr ( you know the ones like fido who own big postions in mrk/mmc/aig/) is betting on a top in oil. Hell they have put the bet on from 35 bucks. Guess what? WHen everyone is thinking the same thing, no one is thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mars Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would tryto rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs and get short big again. Comon Al, help me out here. Might get your wish the futures are showing a couple of bucks over FV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jimi Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 What about Neely? Dow 100,000? What is Dow 100K in 45 years? That is a 5.25% yield. How much of that will be inflation? 6.5%? this is a neat little trick... your asset appreciates by 5%/year, but inflation runs 4%/year. you pay 25% cap gains tax (state/Fed), so you net 3.75% annual gain, which is below or near the CPI/inflation rate.... if you asset appreciated by less thna 5%.... guess what? you're screwed? He conceded that a move to Dow 100,000 would be a function, in part, of inflation. I can't remember if that was before or after he said that the United States would annex Mexico. Whadda jackass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 This is for those who still believe the U.S. is in Iraq to spread freedom and prosperity with the idea of stopping the terrorists. All of the following information can be found here. Fact: In the first 11,860 years of documented human history (up until ~1850 AD), the human population of the earth was able to grow to a grand total of 800 million people. Average increase of 67,000 people per year. Fact: In the 145 years since 1860, the human population of the Earth has grown to more than 6 billion. Average increase of 36,500,000 people per year - an increase in growth rate of 54,477% Fact: First oil well was discovered in 1858 in Ontario, Canada. Fact: The world's richest 30 countries have 18% of the worlds population and use 85% of the world energy resources. Conclusion: Oil = Prosperity Fact: U.S. oil discovery peaked in the 1930's and has been declining ever since. Fact: World oil discovery peaked in 1965 and has been declining ever since. Fact: U.S. oil production peaked in 1970 (coinciding with first Oil shock) and has been declining ever since. Fact: Since 1981 the world has been producing/using more oil per year than it has been able to discover. In fact, the world is currently able to discover only about 1 barrel of oil for every barrel of production/usage. Fact: World oil production peak is predicted for 2004 - 2008. If it has not already happened, it will happen very soon. Conclusion: The U.S. and the world are running out of oil. There is not enough to go around. Question: If oil = prosperity and the world is running out of oil, why would the U.S. want Iraq and other 3rd world countries to become prosperous? Prosperity means industry, automobiles, and higher energy demands. Final Conclusion: The U.S. is in Iraq to secure oil, not to spread freedom and prosperity. In fact, the U.S. is actively using military force and the World Bank to keep the 3rd world down in order prolong its own prosperity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TURK Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 Actually, in a perverse way, I wish they would tryto rally tomorrow so I can cover some crappy longs and get short big again. Comon Al, help me out here. Might get your wish the futures are showing a couple of bucks over FV. Agree Wonder if gold get smashed at the same time Turk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twignberries Posted October 17, 2004 Report Share Posted October 17, 2004 A visual picture: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted October 18, 2004 Report Share Posted October 18, 2004 Drudge reporting tonight that the Florida election disaster has begun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherone Posted October 18, 2004 Report Share Posted October 18, 2004 FDX looks more stretched out. I don't know if this one has enough juice left to go higher............ Like I said...we 're real close here.. The question is hw much short interst is there in the main trannie components and how many days would it take to cover? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.