March Madness Failure?

[BigWave]

I think they caught the wrong guy!

 

Unless bangin' jenna jameson all day is classified as terrorism?

[chibear]

Pee Brain...

 

You are not alone.

 

Consumption spending in L.A. is totally and completely out of control.  Everybody buying now, no worries about the future.

 

No fear, no anxieties, no question about future prosperity.

 

It will take a nuclear bomb landing in the front yard to get them to pause and reflect for a moment.

 

All these guys will simply file bankruptcy and start over. I have two major builders here in the S. Bay who are millionaires, and they all have been flat broke twice already.

 

Just BK, start over, latch on to the next boom.

 

Lenders are suckers.  They will loan to anybody, and quickly forget about the past.

 

Enjoy the MTV Free Ride as long as you can.

 

We have a snowstorm, yet mall lots were full. Nothing slows 'em down.

 

Deflation: was in Micro Centre to return a mobo. Couldn't help myself. Bought an SMC Barricade Wireless Turbo Router for $49, an HP 4400Cxi scanner for $29, and a Cendyne 4X DVD Burner for $179, all after rebates, but no wonder these companies can't make any money. Meanwhile over on ebay, Cisco parts are floating around like bodies on a lake.

 

Nevertheless, we've been down a very long time. New lows would set a new record for the last 100 years.

[rayok]

dead or alive a mystery.

[Guest]

This is so right on. ?As myopic as Al Green has ALWAYS BEEN, to blame any of the coming debacle on any one person is most simplistic. ?Each of us plays his own hand. ?And though the manipulations and interventions may flatten some folk under the big steamroller, in the end, each of us is master of his or her own fate. ?Observe. ?Learn. ?Act. ?Accept responsibility.

 

Japan's bubble burst in 1990, and that cluckhead Alan Greenspan has gone on to make EVERY mistake the Japanese did.

 

The Nasdaq was trading at 170 times earnings, and Easy Al explains it all with "productivity gains".

I believe AG is a slightly less ineffectual boob than GW, but I also think he gets less credit for the "irrational exuberance" call than he deserves.

The Greenman, in a solitary moment of weakness, uttered a few honest words. His bosses on Wall Street immediately got on the phone and reminded him exactly who it is that he works for and that it is his job to serve their needs. The next call the Greenman received was from the political rulers who reminded him of who appointed him and reminded him that he is there to serve their needs. So the Greenman then did nothing about raising margin requirement to temper the market specutlation. Indeed later, he claimed that he couldn't even recognize a bubble in a police lineup. The Greenman's corruption is complete. He put his moment of honesty back in his pocket because he so much does enjoy being The Chairman and able to associate with all the right people. After all, he's Sir Allen, the Maestro.

[Guest]

To add to what WH just wrote, as I was going through my charts this evening, the Sox jumped out at me for its clean reversal today at the downtrend line.

 

We also closed a little below the supposed H&S neckline.

 

 

I wouldn't exclude a last attempt to test the downtrend line again - there have been so many already, who cares if there's another one? - but to me the market looks about ready to show us some real action again very soon.

Madame, that chart is a thing of beauty.

[Guest BEARDRECH]

The BARE hASS been yapping FUR days if SNOT weeks about a probable efFURt by Da Boyz to hold at 8000 at all costs.

 

Obviously the public won't panic at that level. Anything much  lower than that, and...., well.....

 

draw your own conclusions!

 

Use oil and paint! No chiaruscuro (sp?), pleez.

bare

i,m intrigued about your request for not painting the immediate future with chiarescuro--i would think that is just the right effect in portraying an image of impending doom--this weltschmerzliche canvas propped against a pair of gigantic loudspeakers blaring Wagnerian heldentenorian angstliche Museek would,i think,be quite effective in communicating the almighty Gotterdammerung overhanging our glucklose lives--

beardrech(unless i misunderstand your drift)

[Tig 'Ol Bitties]

Mark?s Market Commentary ? March 3, 2003

 

Just some incoherent rambling here from stuff I found over the weekend. Too early to tell if today was a reversal day, or if another Repo Blast will be injected tomorrow to jam things higher. High probability of a top in on the SOX since Dan ?The Greaseman? Niles finally changed out of his San Jose 7-11 uniform to appear on several venues to issue a buy signal on INTC on Friday.

 

I am amazed at the interconnected cables of the Global Equity indexes. All trade in sync, all dependent upon the U.S. economy. Any scrap or hint of a ?v-shaped recovery? in the U.S. causes a stock buying frenzy worldwide.

 

From the Bloomberg Bullhorn last night:

 

?Japan's stock benchmarks rose, led by exporters such as Toyota Motor Corp., after a U.S. government report showed fourth-quarter growth in Japan's biggest trading partner was twice as fast as initially estimated. Automakers were the biggest gainer as a group.?

 

?South Korea's Kospi index rose 1.1 percent and Australia's S&P/ASX 200 Index added 0.3 percent after the U.S. Commerce Department report showed gross domestic product grew at a 1.4 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter as consumer and business spending beat original estimates.?

 

?The report raised optimism for a recovery in the world's largest economy, which may boost earnings at exporters such as Samsung Electronics Co. and News Corp., which makes three-quarters of its sales in the U.S.?

 

?The Kospi index rose 6.34 to 581.77. Kospi 200 futures gained 1.2 percent to 73.40, while the underlying index rose 0.9 percent to 73.47. Samsung Electronics, which gets about a fifth of its sales from the U.S., advanced 1.8 percent to 284,500 won. Hyundai Motor Co., whose exports account for more than a half of its sales, gained 0.8 percent to 25,300 won. The U.S. is Korea's largest export market, which accounted for a fifth of total exports in 2001.?

 

``The positive GDP news helped some investors buy futures and stocks because the U.S. economy is important for exporters and the global economy,'' said Kim Joong Il, who helps manage 600 billion won ($502 million) at Kyobo Investment Trust Management Co. Kim bought Samsung Electronics shares today.?

 

?Taiwan Semiconductor, the world's largest maker of computer chips on a subcontracting basis, rose 1.4 percent to NT$42.60. United Microelectronics Corp., the second largest, gained 1 percent to NT$19.90. Export orders jumped 15 percent from a year earlier to $13 billion after a 14 percent gain in December, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. That compares with the 12 percent median forecast.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

?Global Arena Participants have their fingers anxiously poised on the ?buy? button on their Nintendo Consoles. Any sign of a bottle rocket rally in U.S. consumer spending, typically led by the Nasdaq, is immediately seized upon as a possible 40% gain in all indexes worldwide, trading in lockstep with AMAT?s option chain.?

 

?Fund managers all over the globe are speculating 24/7 on the SOX, the leading barometer of the planet?s economic health.?

 

?Any reversal from the upside momentum is sold immediately. However, these sales are usually temporary, and result from a desire for gamers to obtain even lower entry prices for the next New Bull Market which will eventually translated into even more spectacular gains as the Nasdaq advances to new highs.?

 

Not only are speculators anxious to buy, they even ignore bad news from the corporate insiders, who are less confident about economic conditions. Quotes from Goldman Sachs? Technology Symposium last week:

 

Joe Bronson at AMAT: ?You have this overhang of malaise that is stunting people from doing what they should be doing.?

 

Joseph Tucci at EMC: ?The threat of war is having some negative effect on purchasing decisions.

 

Alfred Chuang at BEAS: ?The issue of war has put some doubts in customers?

 

Meg Whitman at EBAY: ?If consumer spending drops like a rock, then it is a concern for us.?

 

Insiders are selling. But the Riverboaters are in a trance, transfixed on the Nasdaq. Goaded by the Bullhorners:

 

Bear Stearns sees stocks weak, but headwinds diminished by Tomi Kilgore

 

Bear Stearns investment strategist Francois Trahan said the path of least resistance is still down for stocks, with a retest of the October lows still the most probably outcome, but added, however, that a number of "market-restraining headwinds appear to be diminishing." Trahan said that valuation has become "increasingly compelling," the spread between bond and stock bulls have reached extremes normally associated with a major asset re-allocation into equities and the cash on the sidelines as reached all-time highs. In addition, he noted that recent sentiment data suggests that bulls have dwindled to a level typically associated with "a fully Dover Sole bottom in the equity market." He cautioned that a major catalyst, such as a favorable resolution of the Iraq situation or the strike in Venezuela, is needed to drive stocks higher from current levels.

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

The usual foreign exchange student hired by Bear Stearns to satisfy the ?diversity? checkbox is really only another Agent manning the bullhorn, attempting to corral the Wildebeasts.

 

The Matrix Agents are getting restless, as Doug Noland?s systemic risk headwinds are strengthening, soon to be gale force. The spread between bond and stock bulls represent wild imbalances resulting from record speculation in debt securities arbitrage. Cash on the sidelines, which has reached all time highs, is really high-risk debt monetized into ?money market funds?, thanks to the exotic schemes perpetrated by the Paper Pyramiders. A major asset re-allocation is soon to appear, as Participants realize that the money market funds they are holding are only as good as the thousands of pyramided promises stacked on top of each other, and a rush to gold is imminent. A 10 sigma event will be the catalyst to turn the Atomic Particle Accelerator into reverse, resulting in the quick vaporization of the huge piles of ?sideline cash.?

 

Found in yesterday?s ?The Trader? section in yesterday?s Barron?s.

 

?Fear of commitment is gripping Wall Street, leaving the stock market in the sway of fickle short-term players with their wandering eyes and fleeting emotional dramas. The daily activity in the current environment reflects the efforts of agitated traders feinting and sniping for momentary advantage?

 

?Trading volume has ebbed, but the intraday activity features frequent reversals, thanks to opportunistic traders seizing on a single data point or one news headline to muscle stocks around.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

While Joe Sixpack remains fully invested, making his regular monthly contributions, the trillions of ?buy and hold? money is being gamed by HedgeHogs and market makers. Trading has become a game of Dodgeball played by elementary students, where short sellers attempting to overpower the Plunge Protection Team are blown out, and smarter ?event driven? HedgeHogs financed by Al Green?s Repo Blasts look for opportune times to ?participate? on spectacular squeezes to the upside.

 

Nowhere else in financial history have we witnessed such a dramatic increase in speculative intensity, concurrent with the desire to get rich in 7 trading days or less. The Wall Struck Casino has attracted the most hard core gaming addicts, who are making leveraged short term bets. Quick to cut losses or reverse direction, even quicker at grabbing profits. Millions of eyeballs gaming each other in real time, all watching the same ?indicators?, the same ?charts?, everyone watching what everyone else is doing.

 

?The vivid outperformance of big tech stocks so far this year evidences the abiding willingness of investors to make yet another tech-comeback. Buying tech names involves investor psychology and trader posturing. Some portfolio managers are hiding in large-cap tech shares, hoping to at least rent some exposure to a volatile sector so that any potential midwar or post-war rally doesn?t leave them completely behind.?

 

Mark?s Translation:

 

The economy is the stock market, and the stock market is the tech sector, and the tech sector is the semiconductor group, and that group?s leader highest beta component is the semiconductor manufacturers. Therefore, if the economy rebounds, there really isn?t any point in being invested in any other stock other than AMAT, KLAC and NVLS.

 

While Global Speculators are salivating over the coming Roman Candle move in the SOX, Switzerland is on the brink of crises:

 

?Shares in Swiss companies have taken a pounding because two of their biggest investors, Swiss pension funds and Swiss insurers were big sellers in 2002. Underfunded pension plans have had little choice but to dump shares. Swiss companies are highly dependent on foreign markets for sales and investments, particularly Germany. Swiss Reinsurance, Zurich Financial Services, and Credit Suisse have cut dividends, taken big charges on equity writedowns, and other investment losses.?

 

The Swiss were the last tranche of the risk bagholders stuck with the worst of the worst of Bermuda Garbage offloaded by Western banks. Desperate to ?catch up? with the ?New Era? of ?Wildcat Finance?, the Swiss finally dumped their conservative posture and snapped up the last of the low grade risk pools to rake in huge fees and show the globe that they were ?Big Global Risk Players?.

 

Now they are getting shafted from cash calls coming out of nowhere, obscure no-name intermediaries in the Caribbean demanding payment on derivative exotica tied to Enron, WorldCom, Ahold, and Kmart. What was sold to Merrill Lynch, Citibank, and J.P Morgan ended up being stripped, sliced, and diced and distributed to unknown Pyramid Players with ?Special Purpose Vehicle? designations and Cayman Islands P.O. Box addresses.

 

Now, Switzerland has no other choice but to look to Germany, its largest trading partner, in an attempt to export its way to prosperity and ?earn? their way out of their mistakes through ?growth?. Unfortunately, Germany is in dire straits. Its fortunes are directly tied to the success of one stock on the DAX: Infineon Technologies. And Infineon?s fortunes are directly related to the fortunes of AMAT, whose fortunes are directly related to Samsung, whose fortunes are directly related to Sony and Dell, whose fortunes are directly related to Joe Sixpack, who carries the weight of the entire financial globe on his shoulders, based on his ability to obtain credit card limit increases in order to buy another cell phone, computer, DVD player, or a Ford Explorer with GPS navigation.

 

And speaking of Ford, we must watch this one closely. Corporations are now acting like Wild Pigs feeding at the trough, taking advantage of the Liquidity Parabola to issue new debt while 10-year Treasuries are at 40-year lows. During the last corporate bond orgy in early 2002, Ford was pulling off gigantic issues, and is now the No. 1 corporate bond issuer on the planet.

 

As Alan Newman pointed out the dangers of stock indexing, the same applies to the bond market. Everything is now connected. The herd of equity Wildebeasts and the herd of bond Wildebeasts. Now moving in lockstep with each other.

 

?Due to Ford?s much greater weight in the credit universe and its larger stand-alone credit risk, it contributes a disproportional amount of credit risk to the market. Ford is the largest issuer in the Lehman Brothers Credit Index. Rising risk in Ford leads to an accelerated increase of risk in the overall market. If all participants try to limit their risk to Ford, liquidity demands quickly swamp the ability to absorb the change in investor attitudes.?

 

?Many fixed-income managers have to own certain credits simply because they comprise an outsized percentage of a market index. As an example, MetWest says that Ford bonds represent the firm?s largest corporate holding.?

 

Ford?s 10-year notes are trading at 4.16 over Treasuries. That compares to 3.50 recorded in mid January and 5.92 last October. According to Goldman, ?there is real danger if Ford?s stock price goes from $8 to $7 a share. The bonds could move in tandem, with spreads widening from the low 4% to the high 4% range. You could have the same kind of desperate rush for the exits that could spook the whole credit market.?

 

Uh, Oh?

 

Amazing. Just when I run out of stuff to write about, more incredulous news hits the tape. This is better than a soap opera. Where is Buddha? He?ll love this one:

 

U.S. Treasury creates financial crimes division by Rachel Koning

 

?The U.S. Treasury announced Monday it has created a new Executive Office for Terrorist Financing and Financial Crimes. The office, to be headed by Juan Zarate, will report to the Treasury Deputy Secretary. The division will work with, but does not report directly to, the Bush administration-created Office of Homeland Security. Among other things, the new office will work with the private sector over new financial policies under the Patriot Act, a law created to stem terror financing and money laundering in the wake of 9/11.?

 

Capitalstool creates financial crimes division by Stephan N. Stool

 

A class action lawsuit has been filed against the banks, brokerage firms, the senior administration officials, and Alan Greenspan for financial terrorism. Charges include: Options Racketeering, End of Month Tape Painting, Excess Bullhorning about v-shaped recoveries, and Widespread Fraud, Fleecing, and Deception about the true financial condition of the country. Among other things, the suit will seek discovery to learn about the true inner workings of the 700-story JPM Derivatives Tower.

 

Hopefully, Buddha will show up and expound on this folly.

Wndysrf,

 

Beers on me, you deserve it.

[HardStoolGuy]

ing

Off topic- Is there a way to empty my hard drive?

 

I am donating my computor to a charity and want to empty all my files before presenting it to them.

Re-format the drive and it's done.

How do I do dat der thing?

TE-you should have gotten a recovery disc w/ the computer. Put it in and it will tell you what to do. Choose the option with the big WARNING that says you will lose everything on your hard drive.

Sorry but reformating hard drive DOES NOT DELETE YOUR FILES. There are programs out there that will enable the new owner to access most if not all of your files.

 

I suggest you try this:

 

http://download.com.com/3000-2092-10188745...ml?tag=lst-0-21

[Guest BEARDRECH]

North Korean Jets Intercept U.S. Plane

 

"The closest the fighters came was about 50 feet, Davis said."

 

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/wo...ome%2Dheadlines

 

Then there is no need to worry.

 

Saddam is trying to avoid a war with the US, and this guy from

North Korea is trying to start one.

stoolies

for what its worth this little korean prick-with-ears;this unhousebroken beaver-warrior with a death wish as big as the ritz has a terrifying phenotypical similarity to one of my sisters in -law;and what makes her so terrifying is that she has the skin of an armadillo accompanied by two pendulous bullet-proof tits--you get within a couple of feet of her at a dinner table when shes unmuzzled and the right cheek of your ass becomes "toches on the halfshell""

The point being if there are genotypical similarities behind their respective exteriors we are in a heap of kimchi-

beardrech

[realist]

Great Anal's Tonight Doc!

 

Could have sworn that your SPX chart said "Projections beyond two weeks will SHIT depending on the action over the next few days."

 

It is the "Stool" after all?

[Mr. Beal]

To be sure we all focus on different stuff. I thought this chart was a significant development today. It also begs comparison with the first week in Dec.

 

As I?ve stated previously my view is the potential emergence of the petro-euro and the virtually certain sustained rise in energy costs will be the catalysis in the US financial market melt down. I remain on the fence as to whether this will happen with increasing speed or on the grind but bias remains on the grind. This means waiting for those low risk entry points for shorts and taking it when it offered and then waiting again. I fully admit I might have bailed just when the acceleration is around the corner.

 

Thus, I took today?s action (selling the open and covering intraday stuff on the close for a helper) and everything else SPY, DIA and RYVNX on the close to basically scratch on all my shorts over the last week. So, I?m 100% in cash at the end of today in equities. I admit I am a scared Bear right now. I think Shrub can?t pull the trigger in this political environment and while Shrub may have needed Daddy to get into Yale, he does know which way the political winds are blowing and right now he?s tacking into a fierce headwind. I fear this may be perceived as a ST positive for the market - If not I?ll ?Pile On?. It is of course very Bearish, as he's running about a $1B/Wk tab just shifting his 'Game of Risk' little blocks around.

[purdymouth]

Comstock response to a reader concerning inflation/deflation.

 

"The main point we would like to make regarding your email is that we agree that the foreign holdings of U.S. assets (we believe to be over $6 trillion) will be liquidated and this will drive down the relative value of the U.S. dollar. We don?t, however, see how this gives us any liquidity whatsoever. In fact, as equities, bonds, and real estate decline, household net worth also declines and this will prolong the recession of 2001, which we don?t believe ever ended. The devaluation of the dollar would make exports from overseas to the U.S. more expensive, but U.S. consumers won?t have the liquidity to buy these expensive imports. When foreign countries have to reduce the price of exports to the U.S., it essentially exports our deflation abroad causing severe worldwide deflation. This view is not merely theoretical. The severe deflation of the 1930?s was worldwide as was the soaring inflation of the mid-1970?s and early 1980?s. In the global economy it is inconceivable to us that some major economies can have major inflation while others suffer from major deflation. For logical reasons, it has never happened before and is highly unlikely to occur now."

[Guest BEARDRECH]

Plunger, welcome to this motley? crew...

 

There already IS a housing glut on the market in some places, Plunger. At least maybe here in Seattle. HRFF's top notch real estate agent fishing pal called him FUR the FURst time EVER in 15 years complaining of same and wondering if The BARE knew of any suck OOOOPS!!! buyers. He had LOTS of houses sitting on the market that were "taking too long to move" he said.

 

He's worth millions - on paper, in properties, mostly. Just bought himself a 600k home - at the top of the market and noted his sizeable mortgage thereon.

 

Gold coins? Ya better buy an AK-47 to go along w 'em.

 

Again, all you folks (SNOT u, Plunger) here babbling merrily away about money supply expanding (Doc, FUR example says his FEED index is on the rise and nearing "breakout" again - no Doc, BARE is NOT making fun of you - he has a legitimate question - read on) had better get thee hence to COMSTOCK PARTNERS and read THEIR take on the "expansion" ass y'all label it, of money supply, etc. Seems THEY have a quite different view entirely, butt HRFF ain't no economista and he might be missing something that means THEIR views are congruent with YOURS, here in that regard. HERE'S THE LINK. Go to this page then click on the four categories at the end of the article:

 

http://www.comstockfunds.com/index.cfm?act...roup=Home&aol=1

 

Now, The BARE is confused by these OSTENSIBLY wildly varying opinions. Someone hASS to be more correct. Who is it? Is money supply expanding or is it contracting, as the COMSTOCK boys seem to clearly suggest it is.

 

In any event, it looks like anUDDER one of us has "bit the dust" and backed away from trading, fearing a mASSive ramp job.

 

This is the tricky, shakeout stage of the market. Ms Mkt wants ass many bears out and as many fools in - on the long side, naturally ass possible beFUR taking her down.

 

The notion of a huge, pre war rally is, again, in this oberver's estimation ridiculous.

 

WHO is going to FUEL it, please?

 

WHO? The major institutions?

Hardly. Most of them are sitting on their thumbs awaiting clearer signals and war related developments. Most of them, as Gene Inger notes, have, by THIS time, ALREADY made their moves.

 

FURRY FURriners? Hardly. They're leaving in droves, allegedly.

 

Joe Sixpack? He doesn't have MUSCLE any more. PERIOD. FURther, he's been LEAVING the market - witness fund redemption data.

 

Who's left? Possibly Uncle Sam. If Uncle Sam were REALLY interested in much higher stock prices we would have HAD our pre-war govt-induced rally already to get the markets much higher in case the war went badly. The govt is only interested in CONTROLLING the rate of descent or, maybe STOPPING it around these levels IF it can even DO that. The Shrub knows he's made half the world nervous as cats in a roomful of rocking chairs and that's hurting business and the stock market. He's known that FUR simply MONTHS.

 

The chart chasers? They've been blown around like straw on the wind, rotating in and out, getting eaten alive by volatility, mostly. They don't have the MOXIE by themselves even if the charts to show "breakouts".

 

Who, ASSks The BARE, is left to FUEL such a blowoff?

bare and other stoolies

if anyone has read and understoof Gross of Pimco's commentary on fed interventionism could they please interpret the line where he talks about the Fed pressing the trigger on his lawrence welk bubble-machine and buys GMAC bonds at ,and this is no typo, one TRILLION DOLLARS at a pop??? While shouting "In your face,MF'r"

The figure quoted is so large that reading it is like drinking exotic parisite laden waters that induce Gulliver sized cases of Montezumas revenge

beardrech

[Lethal Dose]

Foulest pieces of dung as of today

 

Sorted by industry, then stock's rank worst to "best".

An invaluable service you provide, sir. I commend you to the deepest depths of the stooliverse.

[Lethal Dose]

Just catching up with the thread....good to see you have your chart posting chops in hand, Mr. Beal. They say a picture's worth a thousand....

 

Are you figuring to make the conference of stoolie's in NYC this week?