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In Honor of Doc's Dad


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While I didn't know for sure until I read it here, I sensed that today was the day, and I was thinking of you and your father throughout the day Doc, as there was a certain shift in the market mood this morning that got me thinking about you. He fought the good fight, and he's free now.

 

Peace

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Peace, Doc. Our thoughts are with you today.

 

Spent part of the week in L.A., and kept only distantly in touch with the market via hotel room TV and KNX (why don't they have "market Sigalerts"?).

 

Yet the SPX closed below 1040, just as it did last Friday.

 

Meanwhile, VXO (old VIX) just put together a string of seven consecutive sub-20 closes. Haven't gone through the historical data, but I don't think this has happened in three years, maybe four.

 

VIX may eventually revert to its long-term average of around 15. But in the context of the past few years, it suggests a lot of complacency and plenty of downside headroom (if there is such a thing).

 

Sunday is the 16th anniversary of the 1987 crash. Sunday 18 Oct 1987 was a sunny autumn day here ... I climbed Wyanokie High Point in northern N.J. with my then-infant son in a backpack carrier ... do you remember what you were doing the day before the Crash?

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Since most of us have already expressed our sympathies, I'll just offer a tribute to our beloved JJ Cramer on what I feel is an appropiate day for one.

 

The Winners of the New World

By James J. Cramer

 

2/29/00 9:42 AM ET

 

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

 

 

Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.

You want winners? You want me to put my Cramer Berkowitz hedge fund hat on and just discuss what my fund is buying today to try to make money tomorrow and the next day and the next? You want my top 10 stocks for who is going to make it in the New World? You know what? I am going to give them to you. Right here. Right now.

 

OK. Here goes. Write them down -- no handouts here!: 724 Solutions (SVNX:Nasdaq - news), Ariba (ARBA:Nasdaq - news), Digital Island (ISLD:Nasdaq - news), Exodus (EXDS:Nasdaq - news), InfoSpace.com (INSP:Nasdaq - news), Inktomi (INKT:Nasdaq - news), Mercury Interactive (MERQ:Nasdaq - news), Sonera (SNRA:Nasdaq - news), VeriSign (VRSN:Nasdaq - news) and Veritas Software (VRTS:Nasdaq - news).

 

We are buying some of every one of these this morning as I give this speech. We buy them every day, particularly if they are down, which, no surprise given what they do, is very rare. And we will keep doing so until this period is over -- and it is very far from ending. Heck, people are just learning these stories on Wall Street, and the more they come to learn, the more they love and own! Most of these companies don't even have earnings per share, so we won't have to be constrained by that methodology for quarters to come.

 

There, now that that's done with, can we talk about the methodology that produced those top 10 so that you can understand how, in a universe of a gazillion stocks, we arrived at those, so you too can figure it out? I hope we can because I have another 10 and still another 10 and another. They all do the same thing: They make the Web faster, cheaper, better and easier to access anywhere, anytime. They allow you to get on the Web securely anywhere in the world. They make the Web economy the only economy that matters. That's all they do.

 

We try to own every one of them. Every single one. And if I had my druthers, I wouldn't own any other stocks in the year 2000. Because these are the only ones worth owning right now in this extremely difficult, extremely narrow stock market. They are the only ones that are going higher consistently in good days and bad. I love every one of them, just as I loathe the rest of the stock universe.

 

How did this stock market get like this, to where the only people who can make a dime in it are the people who are interested in the most arcane subject, the moving of data from one space to another, via strange new machines and software? How did it get to the point where nothing else matters, most particularly the 90% of the stock market I have studied for the last 20 years? How did all of that knowledge become totally irrelevant and the only stocks that work are the stocks of companies that didn't exist five years ago and came public in the last two or three years?

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Peace, Doc. Our thoughts are with you today.

 

Spent part of the week in L.A., and kept only distantly in touch with the market via hotel room TV and KNX (why don't they have "market Sigalerts"?).

 

Yet the SPX closed below 1040, just as it did last Friday.

 

Meanwhile, VXO (old VIX) just put together a string of seven consecutive sub-20 closes. Haven't gone through the historical data, but I don't think this has happened in three years, maybe four.

 

VIX may eventually revert to its long-term average of around 15. But in the context of the past few years, it suggests a lot of complacency and plenty of downside headroom (if there is such a thing).

 

Sunday is the 16th anniversary of the 1987 crash. Sunday 18 Oct 1987 was a sunny autumn day here ... I climbed Wyanokie High Point in northern N.J. with my then-infant son in a backpack carrier ... do you remember what you were doing the day before the Crash?

I was on Exuma in the Bahamas. I didn't know it crashed until three days later when the Miami Herald arrived. At first I misread the headline as the Dow fell TO 500 and I thought "What got nuked?" Then I read that it fell BY 500. Felt much better. :lol:

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For those of you that still have your parents alive today, you have no idea just how lucky you are.

 

For any of those that still have some sort of grief with them, get clear & present, give em a call, tell them how much you mean to them and thank them.

 

The Living Years, by Mike & The Mechanics

 

Every generation

Blames the one before

And all of their frustrations

Come beating on your door

 

I know that I'm a prisoner

To all my Father held so dear

I know that I'm a hostage

To all his hopes and fears

I just wish I could have told him in the living years

 

Crumpled bits of paper

Filled with imperfect thought

Stilted conversations

I'm afraid that's all we've got

 

You say you just don't see it

He says it's perfect sense

You just can't get agreement

In this present tense

We all talk a different language

Talking in defense

 

Say it loud, say it clear

You can listen as well as you hear

It's too late when we die

To admit we don't see eye to eye

 

So we open up a quarrel

Between the present and the past

We only sacrifice the future

It's the bitterness that lasts

 

So Don't yield to the fortunes

You sometimes see as fate

It may have a new perspective

On a different date

And if you don't give up, and don't give in

You may just be O.K.

 

Say it loud, say it clear

You can listen as well as you hear

It's too late when we die

To admit we don't see eye to eye

 

I wasn't there that morning

When my Father passed away

I didn't get to tell him

All the things I had to say

 

I think I caught his spirit

Later that same year

I'm sure I heard his echo

In my baby's new born tears

I just wish I could have told him in the living years

 

Say it loud, say it clear

You can listen as well as you hear

It's too late when we die

To admit we don't see eye to eye

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SMegHland Update:

 

Actually I'm thinking of changing my name to Hit and Run Bear. I shorted and covered time after time all day long but took nothing home. After today it would feel like gambling. It was like a roller coaster but with no clickety clack. Just started at the top and went on down. There is an element of GMTFO going on in AH. No doubt related to the date.

Come to SMegHland. If you can make it here, you can make it anywhere.

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Doc and family are gonna go through a tough time for a few weeks. Grief is a powerfull emotion but the memories are what gives one strength.

 

When my dad passed this year it was the first family member to leave us. There is an aura of surrealism and closure thats unlike any other.

 

My thoughts remain with your family Doc.

 

Ag

 

Thought I'd pick out a couple of chop house doozies for the weekend which are absolutely mind blowing....

Stupidest Upgrade logic of the week

 

Advanced Micro upgraded by Deutsche Securities

 

Fri, Oct 17 - 7:12am ET - Briefing.com

Advanced Micro AMD Deutsche Securities from Sell to Hold

 

Huh ? How in heck can you upgrade from a "sell" to a "hold" ???!!! If you sold it like they said you dont "own" it right ? Don't you have to "buy" it first in order to "hold" it ?

 

Second...For Bubble logic of the week

 

Am Superconductor started with a Buy at Needham; target $18 (AMSC) 10.57 +0.12: Needham initiates coverage with a Buy rating and $18 target; firm expects losses to steadily decline over the next 2 years.

 

 

Great ! They expect declining losses so pay $18 for it.

 

Finnally.. The Pushing the envelope upgrade of the week

 

WebEx reit Strong Buy at Southwest Sec; tgt goes to $34 (WEBX) 21.28 -4.04: --Update-- Firm is reiterating its Strong Buy rating due to achievable financial targets, exceptional operating margins, strong free cash flow, consistent execution track record, and reasonable valuation. Firm raises price tgt to $34 from $20.

 

Reasonable valuation....Reasonable valuation.....reasonable valuation...theres no pace like home....at 6.6 times sales. 52 week range 6 to 32. Thanks for the tip.

 

Have a good weekend folks and hang in there Doc.

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something just came to my mind:

 

first, of course: Is JJ Cramer the personified devil? :lol:

 

what really came to my mind:

 

i thought of stoolie BEARDRECH. He is an old man, 68 or so (ok, not THAT old, but also no young gun anymore) and he still has technical problems to post here again. I always enjoyed his posts. So it would be nice if someone could help him. Doc said that yiddish skills are required :lol: , but i guess he also understands normal english, or maybe dutch :lol:

Be a good stoolie, help him. :)

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The Winners of the New World

By James J. Cramer

 

2/29/00 9:42 AM ET

 

Editor's Note: James J. Cramer is the keynote speaker at the 6th Annual Internet and Electronic Commerce Conference and Exposition, held today at the Jacob Javits Center in New York City. We're running the full text of that speech here.

From the Market Watch section of Barron's (3/6/95):

 

'The Elliott Wave Theorist'

P.O. Box 1618, Gainesville, GA 30503

 

MARCH: The DJIA is topping at the Elliott Wave Theorist's major trend target of 4000-4100 and is primed to begin its Grand Supercycle bear market. Bonds are completing Primary Wave (2). Wave (3), despite the seeming impossibility of such an event to most money managers and investors, will be larger than the 1994 collapse. Dull though they have been, the precious metals should spring to life now that the two-year cycle is lifting. Gold should advance to $460 (plus or minus$5), probably by June. Silver and the XAU (gold stocks index) should rise into year-end 1995 and outperform gold by a substantial margin.

 

-Robert Prechter

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