Hiding Bear Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Welcome to B4 The Bell! The 3:00 AM S&P blast struck again last night. And the oil shock wave that hit yesterday only landed the market safely on the beach - so far. But will declining real incomes exert on continued drag on economic and market liquidity? A NY Times study below shows that personal income may already be dropping. Per capita income appears to be declining, despite GDP pumped up by war spending: The overall income Americans reported to the government shrank for two consecutive years after the Internet stock market bubble burst in 2000, the first time that has effectively happened since the modern tax system was introduced during World War II, newly disclosed information from the Internal Revenue Service shows. The total adjusted gross income on tax returns fell 5.1 percent, to just over $6 trillion in 2002, the most recent year for which data is available, from $6.35 trillion in 2000. Because of population growth, average incomes declined even more, by 5.7 percent. Adjusted for inflation, the income of all Americans fell 9.2 percent from 2000 to 2002, according to the new I.R.S. data. http://www.nytimes.com/2004/07/29/business/29tax.html Quoting Dr. Stool: Charles Schwab to Close 53 BranchesNew York Newsday, NY - 2 hours ago ... The brokerage set the cost-cutting goal last week after ousting David Pottruck as its CEO and bringing back founder Charles Schwab to rejuvenate the company http://www.nynewsday.com/business/sns-ap-s...iness-headlines Rut Ro. I guess he'll be having Pottruck dinners. FT on Bonds: With further yield rises likely, investors could go shorter still. On top of robust growth signs, the US Treasury is starting a two-week bond-selling orgy. US taxpayers may wish this had been done a month ago, but the timing of bond sales is set in stone. So over $90bn will flood out. These sales will also show whether Asian central banks, whose price-insensitive buying has supported prices, are losing their appetite. If so, convictions of a long bear run will look increasingly solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 In thinking ( very dangrous proposition with my two remaining brain cells) about the general tone of the markets and the action of the last few days, it reminds me of a 56 Buick on a mounatin road with no brakes. It bounces off the vetical wall of the mountain on the right side and the rickety guard rail on the left. You know it isn't going to all of a sudden turn right and safely climb to the top of the mountain and at the same time you know that with the next impact of the guardrail on the left you could break through and plunge 3,000 feet to certain death. The other thing that occurs to me is that if you're a bull, the last thing you want to see in this market is more supply. If I'm not mistake the majority of the IPOs issued since Jan 1 are underwater and a lot of those had to be repriced lower from the get go. This leads me to Google. The most heralded IPO of the last year. The pricing, well let's say it seem a little high. When you get over a $100 you're not trolling for mom and pop dumb sheeple/genius stock investor. You're gunning for the big boys. I know Google is on it's show and tell trip, but when do they plan to bring it to market? Wouldn't it be ironinc if this year's darling of the IPO mania bunch occurred on a day when liquidity is a big problem. Will it be a Google too far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Over on IDS World Markets, LongOnUranus opined that he felt the bears had fumbled. I don't think the bears fumbled. They just ran out of time. Bulls stalled and ran out the clock in the first half, now it's their ball. If bears stuff them for four downs (weeks), they take over first and goal. From a cyclical standpoint the market has been behaving remarkably well. The surprise would be if they did break down now. Personally, I would not want to be short if the market closes above 1096 today. Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Turning The Corner Or The Screws Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hiding Bear Posted July 29, 2004 Author Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Over on IDS World Markets, LongOnUranus opined that he felt the bears had fumbled. I don't think the bears fumbled. They just ran out of time. Bulls stalled and ran out the clock in the first half, now it's their ball. If bears stuff them for four downs (weeks), they take over first and goal. From a cyclical standpoint the market has been behaving remarkably well. The surprise would be if they did break down now. Personally, I would not want to be short if the market closes above 1096 today. Your Anals are loaded. Take a subscribatory and download RIGHT NOW! 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Tanks Doc! Fed members are still talking tough and most of the Fed and economists are still optimistic on the economy. So I think the Fed will err on the conservative side the next few weeks while the latest flood of new government bonds takes place. This should keep liqudity from going to stocks. But if the market goes up from here, I may want to stay out of any risky short side trades for a week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 SPY's are at the equivalent of 1100. The magic number is a close above 1096. You can see why clearly in the current issue of the Anals. Click the link below to take a subscribatory and download 'em right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Uncle Buck Pauses To Refresh Holding The Bong Steady Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is now loaded. Take a subscribatory and get the latest whiff of Uncle Buck and the Long Bong Hit. 30 Day Intro Subscribatory. Just $16.99! Get In RIGHT NOW! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 As I stated yeaterday, I thought the entire Putin/Oil story was a totally orchestrated set-up, and predicted that Putin would do an about face and send oil back down. I think everything about yesterday was completely orchestrated to load up the shorts - only to have our boy Vlad send the price of oil right back down and launch a massive short squeeze. In case you missed it, Russia has now decided to let the Yukos oil flow. What a surprise. This is the most manipulated POS on earth and there is NOTHING about these markets that it not under the complete control of the maestro. We own Putin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 As I stated yeaterday, I thought the entire Putin/Oil story was a totally orchestrated set-up, and predicted that Putin would do an about face and send oil back down. I think everything about yesterday was completely orchestrated to load up the shorts - only to have our boy Vlad send the price of oil right back down and launch a massive short squeeze. In case you missed it, Russia has now decided to let the Yukos oil flow. What a surprise. This is the most manipulated POS on earth and there is NOTHING about these markets that it not under the complete control of the maestro. We own Putin. Manipulation or not, Plunger, the oils have been in a steady uptrend for the past 18 months. The fluctuations caused by noise (media) have only had short term effects.... Buy & hold sector imo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 As I stated yeaterday, I thought the entire Putin/Oil story was a totally orchestrated set-up, and predicted that Putin would do an about face and send oil back down. I think everything about yesterday was completely orchestrated to load up the shorts - only to have our boy Vlad send the price of oil right back down and launch a massive short squeeze. In case you missed it, Russia has now decided to let the Yukos oil flow. What a surprise. This is the most manipulated POS on earth and there is NOTHING about these markets that it not under the complete control of the maestro. We own Putin. Manipulation or not, Plunger, the oils have been in a steady uptrend for the past 18 months. The fluctuations caused by noise (media) have only had short term effects.... Buy & hold sector imo... Perhaps, but if you're short an airline or other fuel price sensitive stock, you're going to have your head handed to you today. The entire market is trading off of the oil price fluctuations, and every whipsaw causes massive carnage. That's the point. What appreared to be smart short bets yesterday on energy price sensitive issues (oil) and mortgage rates sensitive issues (tied to the Ten Year) will both be reversed on today. Jobless claims UP 4,000 - just enough to send the Ten Year Yield back down and cause a squeeze in the builders. DO YOU GET IT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 8:29am 07/29/04 U.S. WEEKLY INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 4,000 TO 345,000 8:29am 07/29/04 U.S. 4-WK AVG. JOBLESS CLAIMS OFF 1,000 TO 336,250 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. Q2 EMPLOYMENT COST INDEX UP 0.9% AS EXPECTED 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. Q2 WAGES AND SALARIES UP 0.6%, SAME AS Q1 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. Q2 BENEFIT COSTS UP 1.8% VS. 2.4% Q2 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. ECI YEAR-OVER-YEAR UP 4 PERCENT 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. WEEKLY CONTINUOUS JOBLESS CLAIMS UP 174K TO 2.96M 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. BENEFIT COSTS UP 7.2% YEAR-OVER-YEAR, 14-YEAR HIGH 8:30am 07/29/04 U.S. PVT-SECTOR BENEFIT COSTS UP 7.3% Y-O-Y, 20-YR HIGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 Who knows Plunger but I wouldn't be surprised if your analogy plays out. Putin has been guaranteed his place in the new world order. As Doc warned shorts might want to stand aside should the market continue up and close at higher levels . With the early Asian weakness followed by the boner blast in the spoos at 3am and the European lovefest the script looks to be written for the day. Golds weakness/the dollars strength, also plays into their desires for the market. That feeling of exhaustion is beginning to overwhelm again. I am soo tired of this election year. Stopped out and watching again. The fly in the ointment is yield as it appears to be taking off again. Now equities are back in the safe zone I would expect an attempt to put out the newest fire. The question is at what price. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 The Dead show was great! Good number Doc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 1 billion a day has been coming into the market in the last few weeks. 500m corporate buying 500m small "investors" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lock Limit Down Posted July 29, 2004 Report Share Posted July 29, 2004 kicking silver and gold I have a bad feeling about today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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