B4 The Bell, Frieday April 16

[Hiding Bear]

Welcome to B4 The Bell, home of Brian4 and a nest of bears!

 

Also welcome to newly registered members.

 

The mad season is over, IRA and Retirement Plan contributions have been made - let the bear market resume!

 

So many stories on inflation today, so little time.

 

 

Bernanke can't seethe inlfation everyone else does:

 

Fed's Bernanke Expects

Inflation to Remain Low

 

 

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

April 15, 2004 8:13 p.m.; Page A2

 

WASHINGTON -- A Federal Reserve governor said strong productivity growth and continued slack in the economy should restrain inflation for the next couple of years.

 

The Fed's Ben Bernanke said there haven't been enough data to change his views on low inflation despite the consumer-price report for March showing the strongest gain in core inflation, which excludes food and energy prices, since November 2001.

 

Mr. Bernanke, who is more sanguine about the inflation outlook than some of his Fed colleagues, said a large output gap -- the difference between what the economy can produce and what it is producing -- has been a good indicator of low inflation. As the gap shrinks, there is more uncertainty about whether there is slack in the economy. It then becomes a trickier indicator, he said. "It's early to say whether or not there's been significant movement in what we should be forecasting for inflation a year from now," Mr. Bernanke said after a speech in Chicago.

 

WALL STREET JOURNAL

 

Link to entire speech (has a number of charts too):

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/sp...415/default.htm

 

A Corporate Quandary Over Raising Prices

By EDUARDO PORTER

 

Published: April 16, 2004

 

The March jump in consumer prices surprised many people, but not Harry C. Hagerty.

 

"We are seeing nice increases," said Mr. Hagerty, the chief financial officer of Caesars Entertainment Inc. "Our occupancy is up; our rates are up." Indeed, a night at the Caesars Palace Las Vegas rose, on average, to $158 last month from $149 a year ago.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/16/business/16price.html

 

It's Time for an End to Super Low Interest Rates

 

Published: April 16, 2004

 

ALAN GREENSPAN has bested the critics. Now the only test left is to see if he can bring interest rates back to normal levels without causing too much pain. Unhappily for the Federal Reserve chairman, however, the markets may not be willing to give him as much time as he would like to pull that off.

 

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/04/16/business/16norris.html

 

China Sees Inflationary Pressure Rising

 

The Associated Press

Friday, April 16, 2004; 6:51 AM

 

SHANGHAI, China - Inflationary pressures have been growing in China amid surging economic growth, despite official efforts to tighten controls on the money supply, a vice minister of finance said Friday.

 

Chinese leaders worry that overinvestment by companies in such industries as steel could set off inflation after years of declining prices. They also worry that a sharp increase in spending on factories and real estate could lead to a collapse later.

 

"Inflationary pressure has been growing," Vice Minister Li Yong said at a banking conference in Shanghai.

 

Though consumer prices rose only 2.8 percent in the first three months of the year, one component of it - food prices - jumped by 7.1 percent, Li said. Retail sales jumped 10.7 percent.

 

The government said Thursday that the economy grew by 9.7 percent in the three months ending March 31 - far above the official target of 7 percent.

 

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/artic...l?nav=headlines

[Lock Limit Down]

MUST READ

 

http://www.financialsense.com/Market/wrapup.htm

[zensmoke]

FEDERAL RESERVE CHAIRMAN ALAN GREENSPAN SPEAKTH

 

Friday, April 16

 

WASHINGTON - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan speaks

via videoconference on "Capitalizing Reputation" before the

"2004 Financial Markets Conference - Wall Street against the

Wall: Transparency and Conflicts of Interest" conference in Sea

Island, Ga. sponsored by the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta,

approx. 0815 EDT/1215 GMT. No Q&A. Coordinates: Galaxy 4,

Transponder 23, C-Band. Technical contact: Ed Berkey, 202 797

6262. Information contact: Pierce Nelson, 404-498-8748. Agenda:

http://www.frbatlanta.org/invoke.cfm?objec...&method=display

http://www.forbes.com/markets/newswire/200...rtr1333066.html

[DrStool]

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[anoscope]

 

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[DrStool]

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[Hiding Bear]

Here's a new way to deal with reports of declining energy production:

 

Shell Officer Said to Have Ordered Report Destroyed

By JEFF GERTH and HEATHER TIMMONS

 

Published: April 16, 2004

 

WASHINGTON, April 15 - A senior executive at the Royal Dutch/Shell Group told a subordinate in an e-mail message in December that the employee's preliminary analysis of the company's oil and gas reserves problems was "dynamite" and "needs to be destroyed" because it was incomplete, a person involved in the company's internal inquiry said on Thursday.

 

 

Battleship Shell

[Lock Limit Down]

The medias obsession with the fed members bullhorning is truly remarkable. They would be the star attraction at the coliseum if we found ourselves back in the days of the Roman empire.

[Guest]

8:30am 04/16/04

Housing starts top 2 million in March By Corbett B. Daly

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Starts of new U.S. houses rose about 6.4 percent March to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 2.01 million units, the Commerce Department said Friday. The stronger-than expected rise is the first increase since December and largest monthly gain since May 2003. Starts hit a 20-year high of 2.06 million in December as builders reacted to low interest rates and record new home sales. Housing starts have risen 15.3 percent since March of last year. Economists were looking for starts to accelerate slightly in March, to about 1.91 million units, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

[Bastiat]

Hi,

 

Lurker here.

 

Shell Officer Said to Have Ordered Report Destroyed

By JEFF GERTH and HEATHER TIMMONS

 

I am quite saddened by all this. I put 16 years in at that company (left in 1984) and I guess times have changed. Was able to have some respect for it then. Must be hard on the current employees to know your leaders aren't above bending the truth a bit. It's not Enron but it's still sad.

[Guest yobob1]

Here's a new way to deal with reports of declining energy production:

 

Shell Officer Said to Have Ordered Report Destroyed

By JEFF GERTH and HEATHER TIMMONS

 

Published: April 16, 2004

 

WASHINGTON, April 15 - A senior executive at the Royal Dutch/Shell Group told a subordinate in an e-mail message in December that the employee's preliminary analysis of the company's oil and gas reserves problems was "dynamite" and "needs to be destroyed" because it was incomplete, a person involved in the company's internal inquiry said on Thursday.

 

 

Battleship Shell

Lately I've been pondering OPECs latest round of "cuts" and I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't so much cuts as they are a veiled reference to production peaking. All of the oil fields in the Middle East are geographicallly contained in an area about the size of Indiana. Horizontal drilling and water injection have been widely deployed for at least the last decade or more. Water injection in some fields has reached the point that they are now bringing up 9 times as much water as oil which greatly increases the cost of production when seperation is added in. One might note that North Sea production appears to be in decline. It is worth considering whether Russia may actually be carrrying the "swing" vote on oil these days.

 

One little thought about inflation. The news is everywhere it seems. Is it akin to having the raging Bull appear on the cover of Newsweek?

[Guest yobob1]

8:30am 04/16/04

Housing starts top 2 million in March By Corbett B. Daly

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) -- Starts of new U.S. houses rose about 6.4 percent March to a seasonally adjusted, annualized pace of 2.01 million units, the Commerce Department said Friday. The stronger-than expected rise is the first increase since December and largest monthly gain since May 2003. Starts hit a 20-year high of 2.06 million in December as builders reacted to low interest rates and record new home sales. Housing starts have risen 15.3 percent since March of last year. Economists were looking for starts to accelerate slightly in March, to about 1.91 million units, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch.

Hmmm, starts up and mortgage applications down? Where might that lead if the trends continue?

[HiHat]

1137.80 10d ma.....might act as magnet amidst Dover Sole vibrations

[Bearbones]

[Lately I've been pondering OPECs latest round of "cuts" and I'm beginning to wonder if they aren't so much cuts as they are a veiled reference to production peaking. All of the oil fields in the Middle East are geographicallly contained in an area about the size of Indiana. Horizontal drilling and water injection have been widely deployed for at least the last decade or more. Water injection in some fields has reached the point that they are now bringing up 9 times as much water as oil which greatly increases the cost of production when seperation is added in. One might note that North Sea production appears to be in decline. It is worth considering whether Russia may actually be carrrying the "swing" vote on oil these days.

 

One little thought about inflation. The news is everywhere it seems. Is it akin to having the raging Bull appear on the cover of Newsweek?

Many of the fields in the Middle East, the ones that supply the bulk of the oil, have not been independently evaluated in decades. Some in Russia have been pushed beyond their peaking point way too early. I am increasingly of the opinion that any further pushing of global growth will prove that, at the current price, oil cannot be delivered.

Matt Simmons has spoken and written about this at length. You can view his writnings and speeches at:

 

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/research.aspx?Type=msspeeches

[DrStool]

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