Guest RiffRaff Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 For those who missed it Arch's apperance was short and sweet........up until mid-January, then hard down until mid March (Feb 16th will be the worst day of the year), then up until mid June, then down until mid-November, then a good rally off of November lows. Gold to top early June, Real Estate will go down starting around June 3rd and be bad for 2 years................we'll see!!!!!!!1 :grin: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest bubbles Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 Mark, I curious about your translation of the news/comments on JPM today. Did you hear the JPM guy he sounded like Bill talking about Monica? Perhaps JPM was ?Ministering? The issues get to the heart of your thesis on derivatives speculation. Here?s JPM hedging its speculative lending to Enron with Enron puts held by a quasi legal paper companies designed to engage in the very same quasi legal speculation. Yet very uncharacteristically even with ?the smoking gun emails in hand? the insurers buy out for 50% on the dollar. Go figure why in hell didn?t the insurers go to the mat, there?s no question they had the wind at their back on JPM and they make their living on keeping very mean lawyers busy. It would seem the whole thing was going to get too muddy for everyone too quickly for the parties to squabble over $500 million! I find that to be astonishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 What's a little seasonal adjustment between friends. EMPLOYMENT INSURANCE WEEKLY CLAIMS REPORT "SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA In the week ending Dec. 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 403,000, an increase of 13,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 390,000. UNADJUSTED DATA (Note: some people might call this actual data) The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 612,829 in the week ending Dec. 28, an increase of 128,723 from the previous week." http://www.dol.gov/opa/media/press/eta/ui/current.htm Making up numbers and printing money, your government at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 MH, You post and bolt? The odds of a higher year, in my estimation are close to nill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 For those who missed it Arch's apperance was short and sweet........up until mid-January, then hard down until mid March (Feb 16th will be the worst day of the year), then up until mid June, then down until mid-November, then a good rally off of November lows. Gold to top early June, Real Estate will go down starting around June 3rd and be bad for 2 years................we'll see!!!!!!!1 :grin: Unfortunately, I could not get home in time. Tanks alot for the report RiffRaff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 My, my my-what a thing of beauty today was as Budda stated the trin hit the basement and stayed there all day and everything closed on their highs. As Lou said above this rally is a gift for we bears. It looks like 10 days to 2 weeks at best. From an E wave perspective this looks to me like a large expanded flat pattern that should top 920-25 SPX and 87-8800 DOW-don't start adding shorts yet wait and you will get better entries and prices. Now I built my ladder up from 880 to 915-I sold 880,885,890 today for fabulous coin and am in the green on the rest-KAICHING! Mark you shouldn't have chickened out on the BOOP Sisters-KLAC & MXIM those suckers are money machines up and down if the sox goes positive tomorrow buy them and let them scream GREEN. When it's time to short they are ALWAYS on my list. Coin Guy I hope you got your ladder finished in time. SPWCBY-you should have had a BIG day aren't you glad you learned about ladders?? END- do you agree-expanded flat-925 possible?? Lastly POG went down today but the miners who are unhedged largely did not e.g. GG was up-there is support now for the miners that wasn't there before-just take a look tomorrow at the size of the bids at and under the market. By the way MH was correct about the Moon today-they generally are one way days. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yaryman Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 More good news for the semis. "Shares of Cadence Design Systems (CDN:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) were hammered in after-hours trading Thursday, after the company said it would likely miss earnings forecasts by as much as 85%. Cadence, a seller of automated design software and services for the semiconductor industry, saw its shares drop 16%, or $1.93, to about $9.73. Moreover, said Chief Executive Ray Bingham, "2003 will be a challenging year for our customers [semiconductor makers and designers]"." http://www.thestreet.com/_yahoo/markets/st...h/10060893.html Yet, every nimrod I heard today on Crapvision said things would pickup for the semis. Who to believe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 mark, pants-pissing funny today. also, thanks for the heads up here: As promised, my mission in 2003 is to help Stool Pigeons either avoid the short squeezes or participate in them. Anybody got the guts to play a retailers on the long side? Low risk long entries possible on HD, FD, MAY. HD looks like a "3 drives wedge" like the Nasdaq finished right before the big October bounce. i donged some HD jan calls on tuesday and dumped them today for 40% profit (not long before they dropped that turd after hours). this play was right under my nose and i would've missed it. your $.02 is most appreciated. i will be putting my money where my, uh, cursor is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PileDriver Posted January 2, 2003 Report Share Posted January 2, 2003 Mark, I'm still groping my girlfriend ESRX. Come on and hop back in tomorrow - they're easy. I'll start legging into my shortfolio once http://www.analyzeindices.com/ and equity p/c ratio become bearish. If it gets absurd enough I'll do RYVNX too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phatbubble Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 For those who missed it Arch's apperance was short and sweet........up until mid-January, then hard down until mid March (Feb 16th will be the worst day of the year), then up until mid June, then down until mid-November, then a good rally off of November lows. Gold to top early June, Real Estate will go down starting around June 3rd and be bad for 2 years................we'll see!!!!!!!1 :grin: a word about arch tonight. for anyone who didn't see him (thanks for summarizing riffraff), he was very........measured. no "terrible, terrible first quarter", nothing to rock the boat. nor was there ANY discussion of actual numbers or index levels, aside from the fact that he thinks 1) the october lows will not hold, and 2) the 2003 low will be set in mid-march. this allowed the viewer to come away thinking, ok, one more tough patch, and then 2-3 months from now we're through the worst of it. but what kind of bottom, the one that wasn't discussed, is he looking for? consider this excerpt from his august 2002 newsletter. the caps are his. "....the Final Spike (up in indicators, down in prices) will be Spectacular beyond belief... inconceivable to a majority of current participants. [....] Before the lows, you will see Hopefulness turn to Disbelief and then to Despair as realization dawns that ?Great Expectations? has been revised and re-issued by Tolstoy! And THEN...it will remain QUIET for several years. You will NOT live long enough to recover your losses." as i recall, doc posted a sentence like that recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wndysrf Posted January 3, 2003 Author Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 MAJOR SQUEEZE ALERT Once again, I was not paying attention today. The homebuilders rocked for 6% - 7% moves today, and appear to be blasting out of descending triangle formations. If they gap up on the open tomorrow and start flying, I suggest that these are going to make excellent squeeze plays. Not sure what the catalyst was, but appears to be a major squeeze in the making starting from the typical giant candle off the tip of a wedge. I have shorts on some of these from higher levels, but will flip them long if the move continues. Good luck, Riverboaters..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 . . . You will NOT live long enough to recover your losses.". . . I would love to have seen the look on Maria's face had he said that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The End Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 B4, I guess it is possible. My count did not allow for a break of 872. Since that did happen i think the upside is limited to the 906-918 area(per curry/Tomlinson. Speaking with T today, he will allow for a move as high as 940ish. I disagree with that.923ish to form a right shoulder is certainly possible. I sold one Jan 875 call and bought one march 925 put today. No major move. Net long bearly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brian4 Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 P/C ratio closed at .76 and puts outnumbered calls on SPX and OEX so there is lots of disbelief-signalling rally continuation. Further evidence DA BOYZ are going to push the SUX-NDX LEAP calls 11,020-puts 10. Remember DA BOYZ buy Leaps because they are NOT counted in the p/c ratio. Greg your G.E. is on my put shortlist-seems there first strike in 31 years is on the horizon-over medical costs. Trade Safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flaming Turds Posted January 3, 2003 Report Share Posted January 3, 2003 Pile when are you posting the shorfolio??? All this long talk is making me want to short something Im looking over some longs and damn its hard to dong anything when theyre all turds. What do the masters here think about AKLM? It bottomed again after they lost money last quarter but they have two new games out that should put them positive on earnings again and they had above average volume today with rising $. Earnings report on the 13th. Im thinking it might be good for 50% or so short term. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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