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Bronchial bounce


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Solar storm = more propensity to sell

 

http://www.frbatlanta.org/filelegacydocs/wp0305b.pdf

 

"Unusually high levels of geomagnetic activity have a negative, statistically and economically significant effect on the following week's stock returns for all U.S. stock market indices."

 

How significant is the correlation?

 

"Raps, Stoupel, and Shimshoni (1992) document a significant

0.274 Pearson correlation between monthly numbers of first psychiatric admissions

and sudden magnetic disturbances of the ionosphere"

 

Statisticians usually mock that the World is correlated at 0.3

 

The graph on page 51 (n 49) looks interesting. 6 days after solar storms the average return in US stock markets is around 1%, while outside of those days it's north of 3%.

Wonder what would happen if they corrected the upward bias, or calculated different windowed time periods, like bull market vs bear market.

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No change on my end.

Thought about adding to my shorts but the move above 12900 put me on high alert.

 

Gameover called the back test of 12900. Good call.

 

Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks.

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here's what i'm thinking on the Dow:

 

12920/10dma is crucial, above that and recent highs or more coming.

 

a mini h&s top is forming and the past 2 days appears for now to be the right shoulder

 

a break below 12740 activates the pattern for a target of 12430

 

lets keep this potential gap n crap going

 

btw, thanks madness

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Sure, give money to Wall Street cowboys who would leverage up on oil/gold/commodities and what not, then 'sterilize' by taking money from widow's and orphan's 0.1% yield money market funds. Sounds like a great plan...

 

Sounds like you listened to the podcast and read Aaron's article. :)

Dr. Bernankestein’s Latest Mad Monster Creation

 

That is an amusing coinkydinky!. Great minds think alike and all :lol:.

 

Podcast is the only service I have not subscribed and haven't read Aaron in a while... Now that you have mentioned it, I will checkout Aaron's article.

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Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks.

 

I must not be reading the board. I did not see "a ton of flack." I guess it depends on what a "ton" is.

 

I don't see the point of the scorekeeping and refereeing. I'd rather see less of it. Let people state their opinions. I mean, we had one down day, and it seems to me that you're criticizing those who've expressed bullish views.

 

The market is still rangebound. Until the range is broken, do we really know who was right and who was wrong, and does it even matter? Virtually everyone here trades different time frames. What matters is whether the trader profits more often than not within their typical holding period. In most cases here, both those with a bullish viewpoint and those with a bearish viewpoint are able to do that successfully. Otherwise they wouldn't still be here after 11 1/2 years. I may not always agree with their current viewpoints, but I respect everyone's opinion who's been here for a long time. Each and every one of them has proven themselves to be a great trader, in my view.

 

I also enjoy the tongue in cheek sarcasm of many of our posters. It's fun and funny, whether it be bearish or bullish. I can see and hear the underlying smirking, and I get a kick out of it, I guess because I can see the point. It's mostly harmless and never meant to be mean or hurtful to any other posters. On the other hand, schoolmarmish and sometimes back handed scolding of others, and "third party protectionism" is something I can do without. I find it really irritating.

 

Those are my thoughts. Take them as you wish. Let's get back to short market observations, trading, and having a little fun.

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That is an amusing coinkydinky!. Great minds think alike and all :lol:.

 

Podcast is the only service I have not subscribed and haven't read Aaron in a while... Now that you have mentioned it, I will checkout Aaron's article.

 

In that case, you are apparently exceptionally wise, insightful, and well edumacated! :lol:

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Great to see you back, Madness. Let's not anyone forget that you made an excellent call yourself. You-- and KW too-- very clearly called the decline that occurred earlier this week, even while getting a ton of flack about that correct bearish call from bullish folks.

 

Not really going anywhere nor do i plan to.

 

Over the years, depending on time frame everyone has been right. Market been doing 25-30% swings on the weekly charts in both directions. Let's see where we are by mid April.

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