The Hail Mary Pass

[GregFokker]

6:04  Bush: Devastation requires more than one day's attention

6:05  Bush: There will be 'national response' to disaster

6:03  Bush: Storm requires 'immediate action'

6:02  President Bush: There is 'flow of progress'

5:58  Snow: This will be 'challenging time' for economy

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Heard a piece on the radio coming home tonight: seems BofA has graciously decreed that any Katrina victim who holds a mortgage with them can have a 90-day "grace period" during which they won't be penalized for non-payment.

 

I'm thinking that if it were me, and my house had just been destroyed, making a mortgage payment in the next 90 days (or 90 years!) wouldn't be a high-priority item.

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Sets up a pretty complicated situation. Looks as if tens of thousands of homes have been destroyed. Many, perhaps the majority, may not or can not be rebuilt...at least not on the land they formerly occupied. Yet the mortgages on them still exist, even if the homes don't and won't. For those who are insured, I suppose the issue is moot. But those who aren't are up the creek...literally and figuratively. And then there's the new bankruptcy law coming into effect in six weeks. Incredible situation.

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how will the mortgage holders collect? send out knucklebusters to haraSS the poor losers? seize whatever aSSets they do have? start garnishing their pay if and when they do get a job? can't threaten them with eviction when house is destroyed anyway

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With no security left on which to realize, the debt is unsecured to the bank, but it would remain a personal debt to the debtors. So I guess they go bankrupt.

[GregFokker]

Sounds like Mayor Nagin's telling it like it is. This is becoming a race issue. And Dumbya doesn't seem to have the integrity, intelligence, or basic human goodness to navigate the minefield unfolding before him.

[Hiding Bear]

I just looked at yesterdays (Thursdays) Treasury daily statement.? They closed the day with $6B in their piggy bank.? Today they had payments due of somewhere around $20B due.? They didn't borrow it (they pre announced a Tuesday CMB announcement /auction).? Tax receipts won't cover the bill.? Where did it come from?

 

Maybe another shady Federal Finance Bank transaction?

 

I won't know the answer to that until close of business Tuesday....

 

Hiding Bear, what do you think?

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$14 billion in fiat money that the Treasury (yes Treasury and not the Fed) issued in November was to repay federal retirement plans for loaning money to the US. I know of no such loans today, but that doesn't mean there wasn't any.

 

In the last few days the Jones Act was suspended, state and local gasoline laws were over-ridden by national decree, the SPR was open, the IEA tapped, and $10 billion in spending was authorized for a 20 day bailout of the Gulf coast.

 

Don't think the current Treasury Secretary would let any rules get in his way of issuing more fiat money.

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I'd love to have been a fly on the wall at the lunch meeting between Bush and Greenspan yesterday. Can you imagine the banter?

 

Bush & Snow double team: You really need to do this for our country, for the sake of the economy, for your legacy...

 

Greenspan: Didn't I warn you that you needed to reign in spending if you were going to cut taxes? Didn't I warn you that deficit spending was inflationary? By the way, I'm in my 80's, I retire in a few months, I command more respect than you do..... You don't own me and I'm going to do what's right.

 

As Greeny Leaves the Room:

 

Screw him, we don't need him. We've got a printing press too.

 

Snow to Bush: He's old and feeble. Nobody would question it if he passed in the night.

 

Bush: Put Cheney (Neidermeyer) on it. He's a sneaky little shit just like you.

 

Greenspan yells as he leaves the room: And you can't use high handed extortion tactics on me!

 

Bush: IF...

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I'll make this clear for newcomers - the US Treasury is not allowed to issue fiat money. That's why the Fed was started in the first place - to issue fiat money.

 

But perhaps more astounding, not one single news service before the WSE mentioned one word about what the Treasury did (issue $14 billion in fiat, technically a loan from the Treasury to itself). Either the media isn't really following what they are doing or some publications, like the Wall Street Journal, don't want to rattle the GWB administration.

 

Perhaps the little meeting is the reason, like you imply, that the Fed didn't make any easing moves.

[Guest]

Is there any way to go long the crb through a stock or mutual fund?

[Charmin]

I am of the theory that one has to consider all global stocks nowadays in order to accurately determine the market's health.  US equities are dominant, yes, but they are still only 50% of the world's market cap.  I cannot conceive the US breaking down seriously without the other markets weakening in tandem, and that just isn't happening yet... on the contrary, they are getting stronger.  Which is why I am mostly long foreign stuff, and relatively little US exposure.

 

And even if you strip out the currency effect and just look at the aggregate local currency indexes of the world, including the US, today we are within a hair of making new multi year highs again (less than 0.4% away)

 

So that's why I am hesitant to say that the global bull market in stocks is dead yet.  So far, I just see rotation.

 

Of course, that could change.

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Like the 9/11 disaster or any other disaster ... Katrina may save the nation from another Fed induced recession... meaning that rate increases will stop.

 

Benefitting will be construction, construction materials, heavy equipment, engineering, and oil service companies.

 

Meanwhile, with the high cost of energy spending will be down at retailers and restaurants.

 

Guess what - 9/11 was in September.. There is a good possibility we may rally. $70 oil is probably nearer to a top... so after the holidays and during September should come down..

 

In oil I think refining stocks will probably be a sweet spot...ie... VLO and others.

 

Guess what... your probably right. Thanks.

[Charmin]

A week later... what really gets me is Al Greenspam warning about inflated values in stocks and homes... and yet he is most likely the sole reason we have them now.... expanding the money supply. What a dip....s$!?

 

It's been doubled 13 times since 1970. When did Sir Al take office?

 

http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/fed/...-deficits_x.htm

[KeyboardProspector]

I'll make this clear for newcomers - the US Treasury is not allowed to issue fiat money.  That's why the Fed was started in the first place - to issue fiat money.

 

But perhaps more astounding, not one single news service before the WSE mentioned one word about what the Treasury did (issue $14 billion in fiat, technically a loan from the Treasury to itself).  Either the media isn't really following what they are doing or some publications, like the Wall Street Journal, don't want to rattle the GWB administration.

 

Perhaps the little meeting is the reason, like you imply, that the Fed didn't make any easing moves.

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HB-

 

I'm not sure your statement about Treasury not being allowed to issue fiat money is correct. Take a look at this link .

 

Executive Order 11110 issued by President Kennedy was never recinded.

 

The above is one opinion on the subject. Here is another link that counters the above, but still seems to justify Treasury 'creating' money.

[martialcomp]

Southern California housing report.

 

Number of homes for sale

 

Aug 2nd 2005 Sept 2nd 2005 %increase in 1 month

Orange County 6,625 7,269 9.7%

Los Angeles County 17,584 20,179 14.75%

Riverside County 10,316 11,388 10.39%

San Diego County 14,116 15,252 8.04%

 

Inventory still slowly building at an average rate of about 10% per month.

 

Orange County recently was selling about 3,100 homes a month as recently as July.

 

San Diego County was expected to sell 3,500-3,800 homes per month in August.

 

These are suppose to be the hottest months in real estate. But, inventory is still building.

[KeyboardProspector]

I just saw an episode on the Faux News O'Really show that I thought I would never see. Shepherd Smith was openly lambasting and countering O'Really saying that the disaster lays directly at the feet of the Governor of Louisiana AND the GWB administration.

 

He pointed out that favoritism is rampant. Those with means are being taken care of. Those without are being ignored. You could see the disgust and anger in his eyes.

 

Up until now, anybody who speaks out against the many absurd policies of the current administration is labeled a liberal.

 

I've got this strange feeling that a lot of people, after this week, are thinking: If believing that that citizens of this country are entitled to equal treatment and assistance by our government to save life, limb and property in a national emergency is a liberal policy, then call me a liberal, If letting people die for lack of food and water, and letting corpses rot in the street because they aren't 'right thinking? is what is required to be a 'so called conservative'. I don't want any part of it.

[Charmin]

For all you non-kooks out there NEM backed up to the creek twice and found support.... next stop ... 50

 

Doomed you say... try Wyckoff

 

http://www.StockSharePublishing.com/ChartL..._1125722977.png

[FeedFool]

Just checking in to see how u guys are doing.

 

---------------------

 

Those Deflation guys are going to get killed.

 

I can't see how market can crash if bears can't take out 11k

 

 

Some of us are short and long.

 

Perhaps we are headed for a stagflationary collapse. Okay, now go trade that 

 

 

The CRB flashed a bullish catapult yesterday. The signal has a high probability of success.

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[capitall]

Not sure if these New Orleans articles have been posted yet. Just in case.

 

Mayor to feds: 'Get off your asses'

 

http://www.cnn.com/2005/US/09/02/nagin.transcript/index.html

 

And here's a snippet from a diffierent good article. I am trying to get the url for it from my friend who sent it, as I can't post the whole article here, I know:

 

> In 2001, FEMA warned that a hurricane striking New Orleans was one of the

> three most likely disasters in the U.S. But the Bush administration cut

> New Orleans flood control funding by 44 percent to pay for the Iraq war.

 

Cap

[capitall]

Oh, OK, here's the url for the second article: No One Can Say They Didn't See It Coming

 

http://www.salon.com/opinion/blumenthal/20...tion/index.html

[Brisbane Bear]

most are still in denial in OZ but the penny is starting to drop for others...some still think we can absorb high oil and just pass it on to the customers...idiots!!!

 

Surge darkens Australian outlook

September 3, 2005

 

 

The flow-on effect from rising oil prices is already hitting the Australian economy, but most experts aren't panicking just yet, write Rod Myer and Philip Hopkins.

 

THE world moved into new territory this week as oil prices speared to a record high of $US70 ($A91) a barrel. And Australian motorists could soon face another 15?-a-litre jump in petrol prices after hurricane Katrina put eight petrol refineries out of commission, creating a worldwide petrol shortage.

 

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/sur...5302746679.html

[Guest]

I just saw an episode on the Faux News O'Really show that I thought I would never see.  Shepherd Smith was openly lambasting and countering O'Really saying that the disaster lays directly at the feet of the Governor of Louisiana AND the GWB administration.

 

He pointed out that favoritism is rampant.  Those with means are being taken care of.  Those without are being ignored.  You could see the disgust and anger in his eyes.

 

Up until now, anybody who speaks out against the many absurd policies of the current administration is labeled a liberal.

 

I've got this strange feeling that a lot of people, after this week, are thinking:  If believing that that citizens of this country are entitled to equal treatment and assistance by our government to save life, limb and property in a national emergency is a liberal policy, then call me a liberal, If letting people die for lack of food and water, and letting corpses rot in the street because they aren't 'right thinking? is what is required to be a 'so called conservative'.  I don't want any part of it.

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Good catch .. S Smith was doing it last night too. O' riley kept interupting him, but Smith kept talking and speaking his mind, disagreeing with Mr O. Sheppard Smith earned my respect yesterday.