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B4 The Bell Fryday 10/15/04


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Guest Icky Twerp

Bloomberg.com

 

U.S. Consumer Prices Probably Rose in September, Economic Report to Show

Rising energy costs probably drove U.S. consumer prices higher last month and may cause the expansion to slow, economists said in advance of reports being issued this week.

 

 

Crude Oil May Rise to $75 a Barrel, Chicago Board of Trade President Says

Crude oil prices, which rose to a record $55 a barrel in New York on Friday, may increase further and peak at $75 a barrel, said Bernard Dan, President of the Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest U.S. futures market.

 

 

Mexican Peso Has Biggest Weekly Decline in a Year as Inflation Accelerates

Mexico's peso had its biggest weekly decline in a year as faster inflation prompted some traders to reverse bets that the currency would gain.

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My take on the Trannies..

 

The last trip up to 3400 showed a synchronous divergent sell setup out to the 240 min time frame, but the daily was not divergent, indicating the likely outcome was a pullback for a few dayz and then another run at the highs to create the final divergence..so far this is exactly how it is playin' out..

 

The weekly trannies are very extended ready to roll at any time..the next synchronous sell setup, which should become apparent within days, should be THE sell signal for the trannies..

 

If the market is goin' to unravel here, which is a must, for the bear case to continue have a chance, I would expect the action to start after IBM (18th) and MSFT (21st) post their numbers..

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CNN- is reporting on their crawler that Wall Street and the New York and New Jersey financial sector has had their terror threat raised to Orange by Field marshal Fridge, the rest of the Nation they say remains on yellow-hmmmm!-getting close to the Election-hmmmm! ;)

New York has been on Orange since the system was implemented.

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Article in today's Los Angeles Times

 

Re: UPS and FDX going retail via purchase of Kinko's and Mail Boxes Etc.

 

"Its big. Both companies are using retail stores to funnel more documents and packages to their massive shipping operations. We look for exciting things to happen"

 

"I know that UPS's "Auction Drop" could be huge for those who don't want sell their items on Ebay. They drop their items off at Mail Boxes Etc. store who sells it online for them........."

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FDX looks more stretched out.

 

I don't know if this one has enough juice left to go higher............

They also have Kinkos as either a boost or an anchor.

 

I think the Kinkos acquisition will prove not to have been wise.

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Well, Neely said what he said....and since its so far out, who am I to argue....its such a guess.....imho. Regarding the transports....again, I just shrug my shoulders because it doesn't make sense to me. Looking out at the oil futures suggest continued high oil relative to last years prices. There are changes occuring at the companies to make them streamlined which is good, but the business is about as commoditized as it gets and I don't know where the competitive advantages will be made to provide sustainable strong profits for most of the companies. Certainly the strength suggests that the market will not crash, but thats not what my gut tells me..... My gut tells me that the high oil, increasing fed rates and declining LEI are significant and will effect the market later this year even more and into 2005. Because of the close election (both ways) we have a relatively short sighted market, but after the election or if a clear winner becomes apparent, we will begin to see the market adjust to the decline in the growth of the economy. We may also begin to see the market uncertainty regarding a national sales tax and worldwide geopolitical tensions that have been put off but will come to roost.....

 

Best wishes.... B)

Fndamentals do not cause or influence market movements. Both economic fundametals and market action are corrolaries of the same impetus. How much liquidity is available, and what do the players feel like doing with it. Don't waste your time trying to figure out how the market might react to various fundamental scenarios. It's impossible because there is no cause and effect relationship. There is only one way to consistently have any idea whatsoever what the market is going to do, and that's by studying what it has done and is doing, and using basic math to interpret and project into the future.

 

There is no other way.

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K-Wave:

 

Re:  Trannies

 

Shouldn't have UPS rolled over from those prior tops?  Looks like a possible measured move up to $90.

Talking to UPS employees, they say that when the stock hits 80 a split will be announced. That will probably be the top in the trannies.

Could easily see $80 this coming week..it's all lining up..

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My take on the Trannies..

 

The last trip up to 3400 showed a synchronous divergent sell setup out to the 240 min time frame, but the daily was not divergent, indicating the likely outcome was a pullback for a few dayz and then another run at the highs to create the final divergence..so far this is exactly how it is playin' out..

 

The weekly trannies are very extended ready to roll at any time..the next synchronous sell setup, which should become apparent within days, should be THE sell signal for the trannies..

 

K-wave.

I looked at the trannies in a diffierent way and came up with the same answer. Thanks for your take on this.

Would you mind giving your take on BBH for the next few days?

 

Thanks,

Turk

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FDX looks more stretched out.

 

I don't know if this one has enough juice left to go higher............

They also have Kinkos as either a boost or an anchor.

 

I think the Kinkos acquisition will prove not to have been wise.

Agreed, almost invariably, when companies start to stray from their core business, the top is not far behind..

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