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my 2 cents...I expect DOW 30 goosing this week

 

many of the shorts in NASDAQ stocks have already been found, killed or captured and their dead bodies mocked on Crapvision so tops are in for EBAY, AMZN, etc.

 

next couple weeks DOW 30 shorts will suffer the same fate but we won't get much above 9500

 

followed by a nice flatline into Aug opt exp

 

then straight to hell

 

Dow 8400 mid-Sep

 

7200 by Nov 1

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I believe in a balanced precious metals portfolio

 

when they come to confiscate my gold and silver,

 

I will give them all the lead I have first

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I believe in a balanced precious metals portfolio

 

when they come to confiscate my gold and silver,

 

I will give them all the lead I have first

LOL. I was thinking the same thing, you expressed it so eloquently. :D

 

Piles: I posted a chart of CBJ on Stools Gold.

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...=60#entry136650

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I'm looking at some short term charts and fucutures be damned, I see a reasonable pullback in the works...sell the morning spike, if there is one left by morning.....988-992 may be a good 5-hour to 1-day cycle down-phase target, perhaps lower......1012 looks like a ceiling for right up to a 13-day cycle....not saying it gets there, but it's there.

 

 

cdcover.jpg

 

 

Image and great acoustic Celtic dead tunes from here

 

 

Second CD:

 

 

BDC.jpg

 

 

 

.....but I don't know much.....

 

.....subscribe to Doc. Cheap too.... B)

 

Doc's 23 years of charting certainly aces my short months of technical analysis study. :lol:

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Oh, dear, Mr TwoScrews, you are OBITER again.

 

HRFF meant SNOT that Switzerland wasn't known to our Founding Fathers, it certainly was, butt, rather, that it wasn't an examplar of republicanism to be emulated, nor izzit. Ironically, the source you invoke as a riposte, himself notes the vagueness of it's form of same, in addition to that of UDDER nations.

 

FURther, the notion being advanced earlier, here, to wit: that Switzerland, with it's armed citizenry, was or remains a model to be emulated almost exactly here is not only inapposite but ludicrously simplistic. Switzerland, evidently, is, in ersatz FURm, the NRA's wet dream. Curiously, Swiss seem able to refrain from our murderous proclivities insoFURASS? privately owned/possessed FURarms are concerned. Oddly, they seem to be able to engage in prudent self-restraint, or, at least FUR more OF it, insoFURASS? managing themselves fiscally is concerned.

 

You don't suppose there's any correlation, now do you?

 

Meanwhile, Americans, armed to the teeth SNOTwithstanding any shortcomings when ranged against the Swiss in the manner implied, continue to dispatch one another with their FURarms with unconstrained enthusiasm.

 

These NRA types would convert "a chicken in every pot" to a "shotgon in every bedroom". Somehow, in some vague, as yet to be defined way, they feel this would bring us much closer to domestic tranquility, and success in the 'pursuit of happiness' and so FURth.

Q: What is brown and full of holes?

 

A: Swiss stool.

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FURther, the notion being advanced earlier, here, to wit: that Switzerland, with it's armed citizenry, was or remains a model to be emulated almost exactly here is not only inapposite but ludicrously simplistic.

that notion wasn't advanced here earlier. the point of the original post was to suggest that compulsory military service in switzerland did not necessarily make the reinstitution of a draft in the united states a good idea. great use of inapposite, though.

 

These NRA types would convert "a chicken in every pot" to a "shotgon in every bedroom". Somehow, in some vague, as yet to be defined way, they feel this would bring us much closer to domestic tranquility, and success in the 'pursuit of happiness' and so FURth.

 

the NRA disingenuous? come on, it's a lobbying group. :lol: the idea being that sometimes onerous circumstances make weird and uncomfortable bedfellows.

 

the u.s. was founded through an armed insurrection that threw off what was perceived to be an oppressive and extortionate regime (although now we could get all misty-eyed about the unjust taxation of 13% or whatever it was). the common folk really did fight house to house and stone wall to stone wall. i grew up in the town where it started, as kids we were steeped in all sorts of historical minutia about who did what where when.

 

this

 

A well-regulated militia being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed.

 

was not included at the top of the list of amendments to ensure that future generations could enjoy the weekend pleasantries of a quail hunt or a couple hours at the rod and gun club. all meretricious reinterpretations aside, it was to ensure that the citizenry - the actual people - could defend and preserve their free state and, if necessary, repel by universal armed resistance any attempt to invade or dismantle it.

 

although thomas jefferson saw the clear danger of banking cartels, the founding fathers probably never dreamt that one day a plutocracy would be subverting this free state and doing an end run around the 2nd amendment by means of a ditek ad with a guy going, "real estate is red hot...."

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In commodity futures, a market going inverse is almost always bullish. Indicates a shortage of the commodity, requiring users to pay up for nearby contracts to cover current requirements. Do you see any correlation to the current S&P inversion?

No. As you say, a backwardated physical commodity market (current month more expensive than future months) indicates a shortage.

 

As much as I'd like to extend the analogy to stock index futures, I don't think they can ever be in shortage.

 

Another way to conceptualize the current futures discount is to look at what happens when you, as a bear, short an S&P contract. A floor trader takes the other side of that trade, going long an S&P contract. If he wants to hedge his risk, he can short the S&P cash (a basket of stocks or the SPY). The cash raised from his short sale earns T-bill interest. But as with any short sale, he has to pay the dividends on the borrowed stock.

 

Currently, he's earning 0.9% T-bill interest, but paying out 1.65% in dividends (annual basis). For 90 days ahead, with the S&P cash at 1000 even, that translates to a payout of:

 

Payout = 1000 * (0.9% - 1.65%) * 1/4

Payout = 1.875 S&P points

 

If the cash index is unchanged 90 days from now when the floor trader closes out both sides of his position, he's paid out 1.875 S&P on his cash short sale, but he's gained 1.875 points on the long futures contract, as the discount disappeared and brought its price up to meet the cash index.

 

And in fact, arbitrage ensures that this result will happen. The discount or premium on the stock index futures will always mirror the expected net cost or gain from establishing an offsetting position in the cash market.

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