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Not to To Worry


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Thanks for the Long Term Outlook update Doc...what a doozy. Burying myself in work to stay employed has taken quantities of time away from following the day to day market machinations. :P The Updates are extremely helpful in keeping my eye on the ball.

Mies,

always love to see you posting. Just because of your friggin hilarious avatar! :lol: Best avatar of capstool! :)

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Given that USO is broken, does anyone have any recommendations on how to buy oil as a long term currency hedge?

 

 

USO is "broken" as long as we are in contango.....should we switch to backwardation we should get the opposite effect to some degree as the contract rolls move to cheaper contracts on expiry which has the effect of levering returns in an updward trending earl market.

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According to Kondratieff as well as the Austrians as I understand them in my limited way, bubbles and collapse are a normal feature of capitalist systems. In that sense it would be fair to say that capitalism caused this collapse, just like it caused the South Seas bubble and collapse. Without capitalism there would be no basis for bubbles. Even regulated capitalism is not immune. Free market systems apparently all eventually evolve toward gross misallocation of resources and then collapse, before regenerating. There are no exceptions that I know of. What we are in now is the normal long wave collapse periodically caused by capitalism.

 

I should point out that other systems collapse as well, some faster, some not. I don't know much about ancient agrarian economies. Systems which are fully state controlled tend to collapse very quickly, or are in a permanent state of collapse throughout their existence.

 

I think the best systems are free market systems where there is dynamic tension between the forces of the market and the forces of regulation. When one side of the other acquires too much power for too long, the system is headed for collapse.

 

I prefer to view cycles and waves as the natural order of the entire universe, not just as a function of one specific economic system.

 

The seasons seem to be a good proxy for many things in life, including: markets, governments, and the individual's cycle from birth to death, etc..

 

And beyond the earth's seasons, there are larger cycles overriding the seasons: cyclical ice ages followed by warming periods and so forth.

 

And beyond the earth, there are cycles governing the fate of the solar system, and beyond that, cycles governing the fate of the galaxy, and beyond that the entire universe.

 

For example, on incomprehensible time frames, cycles exist: gases coalesce, compress due to gravity, heat up and a star is ignited and born; if the star is massive enough, after it burns for a few million to billion years, it eventually goes supernova. Then out of that star's debris, over time gases again coalesce, and new stars and planets are formed -- and the cycle repeats.

 

Just like you've found through Hurst: the larger cycles tend to govern the smaller. The individual is at the mercy of the market/government; the government is at the mercy of the seasons; the seasons are at the mercy of the sun; the sun is at the mercy of the galaxy -- etc., ad infinitum.

 

I think cycles are an unavoidable rule of reality, and all creations of man (any form of markets, governments, etc.) are subject to these universal rules.

 

I believe that an effective life is created when one begins to understand these cycles, and instead of fighting them, one learns to operate within them by taking appropriate action given what is possible during a specific cycle (as an incredibly obvious and unnuanced example: if you're 80 years old, you are in the wrong cycle to try to become a pro football player.). This is true of the micro and the macro systems of man: the government needs to recognize where we are within the larger economic cycles, and take action given what is possible during this cycle. Taking cyclically inappropriate action (as they are doing) leads to misfortune. And yet, in a way, the "inappropriate action" is also forseeable and predictable -- and in that way, it is part of the cycle, too.

 

Just my 2 cents.

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LOL. Last night I had a conversation with a friend of mine who happens to be a school teacher and her husband owns operates restaurants. I have been telling her for the past three years about this collapse. Like alot of teachers that teach at her school, she thinks she knows everything and we have alot of fun debates. Well, I told her last night that, despite the administration's attempts, things will not get better but probably much worse. Her response was that it hasn't affected her or her family or friends and that she is not worried and doesn't even pay attention to it. Now, I have been informing her, not because i want to be a smart arse or sound like some prophet, but because her husband is at serious risk here and they don't even know it - at least just not right yet - and just trying to be a good friend. I have had many similar conversations with many others, as well. Yes, I have to agree that the Average American won't get it until that really large shaft has been rammed right up you know what without mercy.

 

I don't bother warning anyone these days. Either you take the red pill or the blue pill. Alot of people like the Matrix, they like the comfort level that it provides. They definitely don't want to be released from their cocoon.

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jickiss is back!

 

 

 

jickiss is back!

 

 

and

 

Dear Ageka,

 

tanks for mentioning your jickiss. Here is a partial answer to the Questions you have raised about both CDE and TRE, and, of course, the Larger Issue of "The Acres of Diamonds."

 

Since Doc is, was, and will be in Charge Here, your jickiss has only been able to post a Very Small Part of What is Important for you to know. Why? Politics is the Master Science on Earth, but in America, da Herd still thinks that Economics is the Master Science, and that various Masters of the Universe, Such Men as Mr. William O'neil and Mr. Warren Buffett, and the various top guys at GS, as well as certain Hedge Fund Managers, were demed by da Sheeple to be Masters of the Universe, that is, they were regarded as masters of Economics, or, more accurately, perhaps, Masters of the poor stepchild of Economics which is known as Finance. HooHA, indeed.

 

 

Therefore, since the various Political Truths, (at the very highest level, not the nonsense Politics in the USA of Dem vs Republican which is a scam, of course) that would enable you to decide what to buy or sell can not be disucssed here, all your jickiss can do is tell you that CDE will be the Stock of the year.

 

here are a few more items to turn over in your mind:

 

The rally in the USDX has been the main factor is stopping the Dirt from being blown off the Acres of Diamonds. The Diamonds are right there, CDE, AUY, GG, TRE, etc. But these items are still buried. Don't worry, soon enough the Sound of the Mighty Rushing Wind will be heard, and the Wind will blow all the dirt away. Then you will be able to see the Diamonds, pick them up, and Sell them.

 

easy.

 

Meanwhile, Do you really thimk that the US Doolar will rise above 8888? If you think that the usdx will rise significantly higher than 8888, wait to buy CDE, etc. But, do you really thimk that Mr. BO's ideas, the fixing of the 5 or 6 Giant Problems that have been ignored in the USA for at least 30 years will work now? There has been a Swing Down in global Asset values of How Much???

Some say 12 Trillion to 30 Trillion. If, for instance, China has One Trillion of Reserves Assets, what a joke recently to see how that Madame Sect. of State encouraged the Chinese to Keep on Buyin'! HooHa, Indeed.

 

BEDROCK jickiss ASSumptions:

 

1. The Doolar is Doomed. Mr. Sinclair says that the target is .52, but he is being kind.

2. Gold is headed to $10,000 the oz. That is too low, but it will work for now.

3. 20 ozs of Silver, since the ancient times, ought to buy one oz of Gold.

4. Earl Matters. For Heating, Transportation and Crop Production. Your jickiss thinks that SU will easily print 200. Earl will have to rise to significant new all time highs in coming years.

5. The ME matters. But no comments here from your jickiss. PC rules, so we can not talk about the ME.

6. Africa matters. To the Chinese, and to Mr. Sinclair. The names of all them for whom it OUGHT to matter are again not going to be mentioned. No comments here from your jickiss. PC rules.

 

7. your jickiss has been Wrong. ok, your jickiss thought that by now, the longs in Gold and Silver and Miners and Miners Related would be ahead by a significant measure. They are not. Why??? Read 8, next.

8. Them at the top of the pyramid have allowed the uptick rule to be ended, and Naked Shorting is permitted. You must understand Politics to see why and where this will take the system. This Summer, expect Blood in the streets of the usa.

9. You want to know just when CDE and TRE and AUY and GG, etc will move up and trend up?

10. When the USDX rolls over and dies, is the answer.

11. Real Players, Real Individuals have been behind the Naked Shorting of the Miners, as well as the Gold Price Manipulation, which, of course, has hurt Silver. In RE, as long as prices were rising, no body cared who the Neighbours were. Maybe the Real Players will get away with their Deliberate Crimes. The Answer to Why they have been able to get away with their crimes is a Political reality, so, again, no comment on this from your jickiss. PC rules.

12. Hold Fast, If you believe your jickiss. But if you disagree, then, if you dare, Short CDE. Maybe you will be right, maybe CDE could print -0- and be delisted, and you will have cash with -0- tax obligation.....

13. Finally, for fun, Please share the name of your Stock of the Year 2009, if YOU dare!

 

Sorry if this sounds like half a con-versation, but the Factors that will determine what happens next are not Economic.

They are Political.

 

Finally, as the Great Buddha posted here, quite a Ways Back, So Far, "Nothing has happpened." Of course, GG's high is what, 51, and if you held CDE from 5 dollars to 50 cents, well, that IS a lot down, but will you cry at $50 or $100??? Da Boyz now own all the shares of all the key Miners, and CDE as well. The Sheeple are out, as they have QUIT!

 

K-Wave has had an incredible HOT hand, and was Dead On Right and Correct when that warning on Gold was flashed last year for all to read, and yesssssss, even to Act Upon.

 

K-Wave posted the following which has been extracted from above, and your jickiss says that it is 100% super correct!

 

"The average American at this point is at the "It's only a flesh wound" stage. The arm has been cut off, but the sensation of pain has not yet registered with the brain."

 

your jickiss is Afraid for sure, now, for only a Moran would not be Afraid of what is to come.

 

Regards to you, Ageka!

jickiss!!!!!!!

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USO is "broken" as long as we are in contango.....should we switch to backwardation we should get the opposite effect to some degree as the contract rolls move to cheaper contracts on expiry which has the effect of levering returns in an updward trending earl market.

 

USO is self described as:

United States Oil Fund, LP (USOF) is a domestic exchange traded security designed to track the movements of light, sweet crude oil

 

It's broken in that it doesn't do that. It's down from early Feb, despite the fact that oil is up. When backwardation arrives, the shorts will be crying foul. It is sold as a "stock" but it doesn't act like one, therefore it is broken, IMO.

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Well I just spent the last 2 hours or so reading the Citi sec filings related to this pref to common restructure as well as culled the "internets" ? for any explanations of why the stock closed at $1.50 Friday if the conversion price is $3.25....

 

Bottomline is this conversion is WAY more complicated than any/all the original reports and there are a number of interesting dynamics that seemed to be driving the common down on Friday, one example, a lot of ARB's are in there buying the pref and shorting the common in or to lock in what they perceived to be a risk-less profit....

 

This old hack kneed douche thinks they might have jumped the gun....

 

Without going into to all the analysis here, they may have put themselves between a rock and a hard place given that not all the preferreds will be treated equally....the public pref don't get the same treatment as the "private" pref (read: uncle Sam, Price Dick-ali-weed, Singapore investmentm, et.al.)

 

The end result of all this garbage is a potential short squeeze a comin' -- think Jon Belushi in Animal House.

 

zit.jpg

 

Guess we'll have to wait and see....

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A sad day...a legend has left us..Paul Harvey died...

 

In the pre-internet/24 hours news days, I used to love to his delivery style as he did his thing.

 

RIP

 

That is sad. Paul Harvey was definitely a class act.

 

The number of people who "get" my Paul Harvey voice impressions is further destined to continue shrinking...

 

"Maryanne could not believehereyes when she openn..nned up her Christmaspresent and found... theBoseAcousticWave."

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