Jump to content

Bubblemania, Big Time


Recommended Posts

  • Replies 217
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Try this before Google fixes it:

 

1) Go to Google

2) type in (but don't hit return): "weapons of mass destruction"

3) Hit the "I'm feeling lucky" button, instead of the normal "Google

search"

button;

4) read what appears to be a normal ERROR message CAREFULLY.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That's what a cafe waiter said in Amsterdam, when I was confused about the dollar-guilder exchange rate and tipped him almost 15 dollars.

That's not exactly what I heard during a similarly confusing visit to a New Jersey gas station about 20 years ago. Since I hail from flyover territory where patrons pump their own gas, I assumed this advanced practice also applied in the Garden State. Wrong assumption. After I had filled my tank I went in to pay the station attendant who was sitting back with feet propped up and a haughty grin on his face. "Nice doin' ya" were his exact words.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You're right. The patient is terminal.

 

But a triple dose of Oxycontin, crank and BC bud will have him feeling fine for a few hours, before he checks out for good.

 

Enjoy the last party; that's our future going up in smoke.

BC, Amsterdam, we should all get together. Wyndy can bring the gold coins for the ladies.. B)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest Icky Twerp
Richard Russell July 15th commentary:

 

http://tinyurl.com/h3ls

 

Host site contains other content that may be offensive to some. No endorsement implied.

Gee, in addition to your own ineluctably prescient comments, the importance of the research you bring to stoolville makes your absences all the harder to bear...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

From Brian Reynolds in minyanville.com

 

 

Remember that Treasury yields had already moved to low levels in April before we got the rally in May from amateur bond speculators who piled into the market.

 

To me, that rally was like pouring gasoline on a smoldering fire, and refis surged to record levels because of it. Now, those amateurs are gone, chased out of the market yesterday when Greenspan dashed their hopes that the Fed would start buying Treasuries hand over fist, and bond yields have risen to where they were in May before that last rally began.

 

That rise in yields shuts off new fuel from being added to the fire, but it doesn't remove what was added. We've had two months of super-strong refi applications that are locked in and will close sometime between Labor Day and Thanksgiving, and refis will still continue at a well above normal pace with the 10-year at around 4%. I don't think that the Treasury market even begins to impinge on the economy until approaches the 4.50% area (and that is subject to change, and is a function of how quickly it moves).

 

As I've written numerous times in the past, I think the major driver in this type of environment is the corporate bond market, not the Treasury market. In order of importance, I'm looking at the tone of the market (can companies access it after being shut out last year?), spreads (how risk-averse are investors) and, in a distant third place, price. All three factors are much better than they were a year ago. The yield on a typical junk bond has gone from 14% in October to 9% now; a few basis points in yield on Treasuries one way or the other isn't going to make a big difference when compared to that kind of move.

read Doug Noland archives at PrudentBear.com. The reflation of the corpse bond market is exactly what Bernanke and Greenspan were after with their reflation attempts. The banks won't lend to corpses, but schmucks will, because schmucks chase yield in a low interest rate environment. None of this is a sign of a strengthening economy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The bottom line here, is that none of you are right. The market is right, Doc is not right, OY, SG or anyone. The problem is that when we follow one of them because they are right sometimes, we tend to overallocate based on their guesses and that is where we get hurt. Fib numbers, Gann, stars, moon, its all a joke when you lose and they are gods when you win.

I have traded with some of the "best" and it all comes down to one thing, ALLOCATION.

Over allocate and you WILL lose.

 

Set stops and create a system that eliminates discretion at the operating level. It has been fun reading this thread.

 

Have a good life.

Wow JOINED March 4 2003. Are you the one that brought us all the bad luck? :lol:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Tell a friend

    Love Stool Pigeons Wire Message Board? Tell a friend!
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
  • ×
    • Create New...