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B4 the Bell, Thursday......again?


Guest yobob1

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Guest yobob1

There is a lot of talk that the Fed should aim to return its fed funds rate to "normal," 3%, as the forward rates are implying. But it would collapse all the asset bubbles it has systematically created; in other words, it would collapse trillions of dollars of market values.

 

A first round of the unwinding of the carry trade took place in April and May. It boosted the long-term rate by close to 1 percentage point. Yet despite all the talk about unwinding, this was only the tip of the iceberg. Outstanding positions are still enormous. More unwinding will further raise longer-term interest rates, no matter how weak the economy is.

 

Best of Kurt Richebacher

 

I hate to repeat my old adage again, but here goes -- "In a bear market everybody loses, and the winner is the one who loses the least." I'm convinced that my adage will prove to be correct, but sadly I must admit that I don't know where the ultimate island of safety is. The US dollar is vulnerable, but ultimately I suspect that ALL paper money will prove to be vulnerable before this bear market has breathed its last.

 

My instinct all along has been to buy into the ultimate island of safety, real money commonly known as gold. And lately, (although I own both) my instinct has gravitated more to the actual metal than the stocks. Yes, the stocks have the leverage, but we have to remember that gold stocks are in the business of producing gold, but it's safer to own the actual product than the company that produces the product.

 

Best of Richard Russell

 

Where's 990N? The bat phone's ringing but Nokia is not home.

globex.png

nasdaq.png

 

Uncle Bucky still hanging around under the 200 dma

history.gif?s=NYBOT_DXY0&t=l&w=1&a=200&v=d12

 

PM's are idling around in London. For now the market seems to be following silver around. Platinum/gold ratio hanging right at 2:1 while the gold/silver ratio has declined from 65:1 to 62:1. When it gets to 1:1 - sell. :lol:

 

As MH noted yesterday the bond market for all intents and purposes appears to be closed. Today they have to cough up the dough for the bonds from last week's auction. Will Al grease their palms or will they sell their last few shares of pets.com to cover?

 

The talk of SIRI reminds me of when cable first got going. Oh how wonderful it would be. You pay for TV and it's commercial free. How long did that last? About 3 nanoseconds? Satellite radio might survive, but it will be under the name of whoever acquires Sirius after their bankruptcy and subsequent debt elimination, IMO.

 

When I talked of B.C. and Alberta joining with some of the Western States, note I was making a vertical border. The Eastern power centers in both countries tromp all over the weaker Western states in both countries. Mandates from the East by people who don't have a clue about the realities of the lives of Westerners. A few years back there was a big row about beavers in the Potomac climbing out of the river and gnawing on planted trees. The beavers were native, and the trees were not. If this had occured out West the hysterical cries of the Eastern Eco Wingnuts would have been to plant more trees for the beavers to eat. But no, this was the East and the rules are different. They removed the beavers.

 

"Ward, you were a little rough on the Beaver last night." :lol:

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Thursday again? Seems just like yesterday was Thursday! :o :P :D

 

Will Cheney find another drug addicted doctor to certify his health this time around? A subject of much discussion already here on B4 the Bell (link repeated from late night contributors to yesterday's thread):

 

The newest theory - advanced privately by prominent Democrats, including members of Congress - holds that Mr. Cheney recently dismissed his personal doctor so that he could see a new one, who will conveniently tell him in August that his heart problems make him unfit to run with Mr. Bush. The dismissed physician, Dr. Gary Malakoff, who four years ago declared that Mr. Cheney was "up to the task of the most sensitive public office" despite a history of heart disease, was dropped from Mr. Cheney's medical team because of an addiction to prescription drugs.

 

Hear the Rumor on Cheney? Capital Buzzes, Denials Aside

 

More on solar activity today:

 

X-FLARE! Earth-orbiting satellites detected a powerful X2-class solar flare at 0140 UT on July 15th (6:40 p.m. PDT on July 14th). The explosion, which came from sunspot 649, might have hurled a coronal mass ejection (CME) toward Earth. If so, it could reach our planet as early as July 16th and spark auroras when it arrives.

 

The bulls have been stuck in some kind of tar pit two weeks now, so the bears still have the ball here. Good trading all. ;)

 

Sunspot 649:

post-20-1089890141_thumb.jpg

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DOD to play Switcheroo.......Downsize Bules to Increase Greens

 

Navy Announces New Early-Out Program

The plan is part of the service?s goal to shed nearly 10,000 billets by ?05

 

The Bureau of Naval Personnel (BUPERS) has announced a new ?Early Transition? program that allows sailors to leave the service up to 12 months before their End of Active Obligated Service (EAOS). The offer is voluntary, and will be extended to approximately 25,000 sailors due to be released from active duty in FY?05. Details of the program are included in NAVADMIN 151/04. Non-designated sailors, and most enlisted rating are covered by the early out, with the exception of sailors under a Selective Reenlistment Bonus (SRB), or in a rating/NEC eligible for SRB reenlistment, sailors in SEAL/EOD/Diver or SWCC programs, and sailors in nuclear ratings.

 

http://www.military.com/NewContent/0,13190...?ESRC=navy-a.nl

 

Army to Recruit 'Downsized' Airmen, Sailors

By Donna Miles

American Forces Press Service

July 09, 2004

 

 

WASHINGTON -- After they "Cross Into the Blue" or "Accelerate Their Life," the Army hopes service members leaving the Air Force or Navy will join the "Army of One."

 

A new program, Operation Blue to Green, seeks to recruit airmen and sailors leaving their service due to force reductions into the Army, which is temporarily increasing its ranks.

 

Plans call for the Air Force to reduce its numbers by 16,000 and the Navy, by 7,900 by the end of 2005, officials from the two services confirmed.

 

 

http://www.military.com/NewsContent/0,1331...?ESRC=navy-a.nl

 

Army has to be in bad personnel shape. :(

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At this rate, by August, we will have an entire week of Thursdays!

 

TGIT?

 

Well Nokia seems to be admitting that there is no margin in phone sales on the race to ZERO. The futures tanked on the news, but are being walked back up the hill now.

 

Two pipeline explosions in Iraq seem perfectly timed to send oil on a tear to new highs...so we'll see whether the Matrix is actually able to control the price of crude today. It's a little late to proclaim they found some extra oil laying around in reserve, and it's a little late for the oil producing states to proclaim they will increase supply...since they already have proclaimed that, so it would seem that the only card left to play is the THREAT of tapping the strategic petroleum reserve. The FED has proven the effectiveness of their OPEN MOUTH policy over the years, and its use to hold oil prices in line may begin as soon as today.

 

Citibank announced today that they are setting aside $5 BILLION in reserves over the MCI legal issues.

 

Another Thursday, another opportunity to manipulate reality.

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Hunter:

 

Some of the recent casualties in Iraq have been truck drivers who are effectively ducks in a shooting gallery. Many of the top dollar "contractors" who had been brought in to drive these trucks have refused to do so for fear of being killed. The Solution?

 

They've brought in Air Force guys to drive these trucks...and you've got Air Force guys being killed driving delivery trucks! This has got to really piss off everybody who has ever served in the Air Force. The draft is already under way in full force, as the Army is simply drafting those already in uniform!!!

 

 

NOK down 16% in Europe in the past hour!!!

 

See how QCOM reacts today. Probably fall, then get jammed.

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Many of you have been asking for an update on light crude. I apologize for taking so long, and will provide updates as time permits. Here is a cmap chart indicating an intermdiate cmap of 42.50. Beyond that we'll have to see how well it holds that level. The indicators suggest that the move is just beginning.

lc.png

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Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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Initial jobless claims rose by 40,000 to a seasonally adjusted 349,000 in the week that ended July 10, fully reversing a decline in the previous week that was the result of a statistical quirk, the Labor Department said Thursday. The four-week average also rebounded, climbing by 3,250 to 339,000.

Dow Jones Newswires

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The Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor

reported today that the Producer Price Index for Finished Goods decreased

0.3 percent in June. This decline followed a 0.8-percent rise in May and a

0.7-percent increase in April. Prices for finished goods other than foods

and energy went up 0.2 percent in June, as opposed to a 0.3-percent

increase in the prior month. At the earlier stages of processing, prices

received by manufacturers of intermediate goods rose 0.5 percent, compared

with a 1.1-percent jump in the preceding month. The index for crude

materials advanced 1.6 percent in June, after posting a 2.8-percent rate of

increase a month earlier. (See table A.)

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/ppi.nr0.htm

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Many of you have been asking for an update on light crude. I apologize for taking so long, and will provide updates as time permits. Here is a cmap chart indicating an intermdiate cmap of 42.50. Beyond that we'll have to see how well it holds that level. The indicators suggest that the move is just beginning.

Much tanks Doc! ;)

 

The Fed got up a wee bit early today, it's going to be a busy day for them I think.

They wouldn't be worried about the flagging money supply growth or "transitory" energy price gains reducing disposable income - would they? :o

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Two pipeline explosions in Iraq seem perfectly timed to send oil on a tear to new highs...so we'll see whether the Matrix is actually able to control the price of crude today. It's a little late to proclaim they found some extra oil laying around in reserve, and it's a little late for the oil producing states to proclaim they will increase supply...since they already have proclaimed that, so it would seem that the only card left to play is the THREAT of tapping the strategic petroleum reserve. The FED has proven the effectiveness of their OPEN MOUTH policy over the years, and its use to hold oil prices in line may begin as soon as today.

Word.

 

The SPR will not produce one extra gallon of gasoline for the US, but it does help the pysch ops to talk about releasing reserves.

 

With a 500,000 barrel a day quota hike "a foregone conclusion, there is nothing left to discuss," the spokesman for OPEC's Vienna-based secretariat.

 

Translation: With refineries already at peak capacity, what's the use of staging another meeting.

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