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B4 The Bell, Wednesday April 14


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Ameritrade began working again at the precise moment the S&P began its up move.

 

 

CRIMINALS!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

The PPT is in the house...take cover!

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Guest yobob1

Trouble for commodities ahead?

Baltic Dry Freight index

The BDIY is a composite index subsuming several smaller indices, each representing different vessel classes. Smaller ocean freighters (those between 35,000 and 50,000 deadweight tons) moving a variety of goods are tracked by the Handymax index. The next step up, vessels of less than 70,000 deadweight tons and capable of moving grain and coal through the Panama Canal, are tracked by the Panamax index. Finally, the larger vessels used for ores fall into the Capesize index.

 

While all of these indices have retraced a significant portion of their late 2003 rally, the largest retracement has been in the Capesize index, the one most reflecting demand for industrial commodities like iron ore and copper. Given the need for ore exporters to nominate vessels for their exports ahead of time, we should expect to see the Capesize index lead the price of an economically sensitive commodity such as copper. This is exactly what's happening.

 

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But given the experiences of the past year, where expanding exports from Asia to the U.S. coincided with massive central bank purchases of bonds by those countries to support the dollar, we need to be careful about making any sort of knee-jerk conclusions. The relationship between 10-year note yields and the BDIY, predictably positive prior to April 2002, has been strongly inverse since then.

 

 

Unlike the FOMC's semantic virtuosos, freight rates give clear and unambiguous warnings. A further decline in the indices should lead to lower commodity prices; this signal is being confirmed by the lackluster performance of the Goldman Sachs Resource index and its ETF, the IGE.

 

While this may be welcome in many quarters, if it is accompanied by prospects for higher short-term rates, we could be in for a massive deleveraging of fixed income investments that would make last week's REIT selloff look like a day at the beach.

Freight Rates Weigh Heavily on Bonds

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BDK-you are in big trouble!

B4 u may be right, but I'm long again n again after each point >1124, 1130,1134,1140,1144,1150,1170,1175.....[sUPER LONG] after 4/20-22

 

just refrence points as I trade the DOWPIG

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