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B4 The Bell, Tuezelday, March 16


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:D Welcome to B4 the Bell! :D

 

The Fed will probably not change much if AG's latest warnings on federal debt growth mean anything.

 

Greenspan Shifts View on Deficits

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/business/16FED.html?hp

 

BOJ holds monetary policy steady. $100 billion of new fiat money since new year is deemed enough liquidity

 

BOJ Board Votes To Leave Monetary Policy Unchanged

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

 

TOKYO -- The Bank of Japan 's board Tuesday voted unanimously to hold monetary policy steady, in line with expectations among financial market participants.

 

The decision follows recent strong economic data and a fall in the yen against the dollar, which argued against a further boost to liquidity.

 

Still, the central bank maintained its usual statement that it will inject ample liquidity regardless of its target if necessary.

 

The BOJ left its target for liquidity, which it measures through commercial banks' account balances at the central bank, in a range of Y30 trillion to Y35 trillion. It also held steady its targeted monthly purchases of government bonds at Y1.2 trillion.

 

"Should there be a risk of financial market instability, such as a surge in liquidity demand, the Bank will provide more liquidity irrespective of the above target," the BOJ said in an accompanying statement.

 

In past years, before Japan's fiscal year end on March 31, the central has strengthened its accompanying statement on its willingness to provide extra liquidity if necessary.

 

But its decision to leave the statement unchanged indicates the central bank isn't concerned about any serious lack of liquidity or financial market instability in the lead up to this fiscal year's end.

 

Planet Sedna unveiled:

http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/opinion/16TUE4.html

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Okie Dokie...Here's what my gut is telling my this morning.

 

It's scam week, so anything is possible, and a squeeze is of course a possibility.

 

Watch MXIM and AMAT for signs of a squeeze in the techs. If they manage it, NFLX could see a monster squeeze, through I won't play it.

 

The politicos need a strong jobs number some time soon...and they got a head start with the end of the grocery strike in Cali.

 

The ten-year yield would bounce like a mother if that occurs...slamming the breaks on the Refi gift.

 

The FRE / FNM fiasco is ugly, and both are presently at support. If they break support (or even if they don't)...watch PHM.

 

NCEN has her toes over the end of the 100 meter platform, and if they jam her to $49.50 this morning, I'm all over it for the trip down to the pool. Upside risk is very limited.

 

I loaded up on some miners at the end of the day (GG GSS PMU), expecting these to catch fire soon.

 

If gold catches a bid, the squeeze on GOLD could be monumental, though currency issues play a roll there too, and the risk is pretty high.

 

If COCO stays below 60 it's due for a trip south.

 

A perfect long set up is HLYW if anyone is so inclined to think this bounce has legs.

 

AHR is a REIT I've got my eye on for a short.

 

I exited RIMM yesterday expecting a squeeze today...but can't wait to mount her one more time.

 

TSN - SFD and SAFM are all "protein glut" plays to the downside.

 

The USDA has been shamed in to increasing their Mad Cow testing - to commence June 1 - which if implemented will surely lead to more cases.

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Your Golden Stool, including short and long term updated charts and price targets, is loaded. Even if you are not a goldbug, you should check out the Golden Stool. It's in your Anals daily. Take a subscribatory and download the Golden Stool RIGHT NOW!

 

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Guest yobob1

Something for the inflationists to consider. Over the last hundred years the dollar has lost about 97% of it's purchasing power. How much inflation potential is really left?

 

IMO we are solidly locked into the competitive devaluation period of the K-Cycle and the beginnings of the bugger thy neighbor phase is seeping into the picture. Oil and PMs may defy convention in the coming breakdown. Like Hyper I think NG is set up for a decline soon. As the equity markets breakdown, many are and will try to hide in the CRB, but I think that will prove to be a mistake within 6 months. The bond market survives on the kindness of foreigners and their willingness to sop up our debt as long as we continue to buy things from them. The problem comes in our ability to continue to consume at the current rates. Numbers are always spun to the posititve, but I think as the lagging data begins to show up for the current and immediate future period, the spinmeisters will have their hands full explaining how a 5 or 10% drop in sales is really an improvement.

 

On a personal note, my objective of denying support for the government is bearing fruit. My accountant informs me I have a refund coming from the fed that is larger than my first quarterly payment, Large enough to also cover the State taxes. That means I don't have to take a large draw in April to cover those taxes and therefore over the course of the coming year my draws will be smaller as the quarterly payments will be lower. By the end of this year my overall draws will be smaller than this past year and that once again will lower my tax bite. Soon I'll be like a major corporation where the governement will pay me to make money. :lol:

 

Remember March 23 is coming up soon! So sell before midnight so you don't forget. ;)

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United Technologies faces EC inquiry

Conglomerate's Otis Elevator under scrutiny in Europe

By Steve Gelsi, CBS.MarketWatch.com

Last Update: 8:14 AM ET March 16, 2004

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- United Technologies on Tuesday said a "small number" of employees at the European operations of its Otis elevator unit may have violated company policy and competition rules.

 

http://aolpf5.marketwatch.com/news/story.a...7D&siteid=aolpf

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8:21am 03/16/04

New York Times sees Q1 EPS in 33c to 36c range vs 45c (NYT) By Mark Cotton

NEW YORK (CBS.MW) -- The New York Times (NYT) said it is forecasting first quarter earnings between 33 cents and 36 cents a share compared with 45 cents a share in the same quarter last year after reporting February total revenues and advertising revenues which were essentially flat year-on-year. Total February revenues edged up 0.5 percent to $251.9 million while advertising revenues slipped 0.3 percent to $167.1 million. The Thomson First Call mean estimate is for first quarter earnings of 45 cents a share on revenue of $813.9 million. For 2004,Chief Financial Officer Leonard P. Forman reiterated the company's forecast of earnings per share growth in the "low-to-mid-single digits." Shares of The New York Times were being bid lower pre-market after ending Monday's session down 27 cents at $45.05.

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U.S. Feb. housing starts off 4% to 1.855 million by Rex Nutting

WASHINGTON (CBS.MW) - Construction of new U.S. houses slowed about 4 percent in February to 1.86 million seasonally adjusted annualized units, the Commerce Department estimated Tuesday. It's the slowest pace of building since August. Economists were looking for starts to accelerate slightly to about 1.91 million in February, according to a survey conducted by CBS MarketWatch. January's starts were revised higher to 1.93 million from the previous estimate of 1.90 million. Starts of single-family homes fell about 4 percent to 1.49 million in February, the slowest since May. Building permits, considered a leading economic indicator, fell about 1.5 percent to 1.90 million annual units.

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Something for the inflationists to consider. Over the last hundred years the dollar has lost about 97% of it's purchasing power. How much inflation potential is really left?

The answer is, an infinite amount.

 

It's a logarithmic process. After the dollar has lost 99% of its value, they can inflate another ten times so that it's lost 99.9% of its value ... and another ten times after that.

 

Governments customarily lop off a couple of zeros, or rename the currency, to 'reset' the process. But there's no hard numerical limit.

 

Unfortunately, there are social limits. Peasants with pitchforks sometimes 'reset' the government. :lol:

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the action has not been narrow range the past

few days to warrant a straight shot up trending day (i think)

 

that they are putting pressure here on shorts...goes without saying

 

i guess i am looking for a range consolidation ..most of day with up bias

going into fed

 

it did not play out like i thought it would yesterday...so my convictions

are tempered.

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Good morning crew-On Crapvision after Ranger Rick Santelli had spent a tidy 3 minutes spinning a BAD housing report into something of beauty they then as usual went to the futures pit where we USUALLY find Jack Perrugian (the slightly off centre guy-with the dirty glasses and Uncle Harvey luvs ya smile) who spins about how wunderful the day will be. Today though we got a guy named Nylander who said" things are BAAD right now if Greenslam says anything about rates we could drop another 2% today" and then "I don't think it will hold here" Haines quickly cut him off and I am sure he was dragged out back and shot. The point being that was a big tell. Looks higher at the open, I am not sure we hold up though-so we see-window at the bell for 15 minutes-lock n load. ;)

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Today though we got a guy named Nylander who said" things are BAAD right now if Greenslam says anything about rates we could drop another 2% today" and then "I don't think it will hold here" Haines quickly cut him off and I am sure he was dragged out back and shot.

:lol:

 

Don't you just hate it when amateur extras flub their lines?

 

Stick with the Actors Equity pros ... <_<

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