Weekly Signals

[Abby Justa Colon]

SOX update:

The SOX like to hang around its 20 day MA. Its gotten ahead of itself lately. Look for it to touch the 20-day in the near future.

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And more than just touch it. Its sitting right near the 200 day now. The SOX will be the one to watch for direction.

Note the RSI scale: it touched the 35 mark and bounced that last few times during the past year.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Heres the weekly view:

 

Just another correction? Or the start of a new bear market?

Our main indicator here (the 26 week ma) is still pointing up so we have to respect it.

The STO is still above its bool/bear line of 50, but looks like it wants to at least touch it.

Note the ST MACD histo: in previous declines during this bool run it stalled out at the -50 line. This may be the one to watch this coming week.

The long term MACD looks ready for a crossover, although the histo is still positive.

Yet once again we have to continue to play it as a bool market using the daily charts for entries/exits.

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For such a roller coaster week the index was actually up for the week.

The LT MACD had a crossover and the histo turned negative for the first time since March. ST MACD histo turned up slightly. The 26 ema is still hanging on to a b-ulllish bias although its nearing a flattening out. Still have to respect the upward bias and trade from the long side only using the dailies for entry/exit points.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Always comes back at some point. Note the CMO 12-day bumped along the -50 the same as in early March. We will find out if it will repeat. The 3-day CMO flagged a buy only to be stopped out. A new buy signal was given with a stop just below the low at 47. This remains active.

Decent trade considering the crazy volatility. Sold when the CMO 3-day hit +100. Will wait to re-enter. Note the 3 & 12-day CMO is showing a b-ullish divergence. It may ramp up here before we get a decent chance at a re-entry. Possibly flagging an intra-day buy going below -50 on the 3-day Monday morning....something to keep an eye on, but it would once again be for a very quick swing trade.

On the flip side, note the volume increasing on the sell-off. Not a very b-ullish picture volume wise. Also we have a 11/34 crossover...a bearish sign.

[Abby Justa Colon]

SOX update:

The SOX like to hang around its 20 day MA. Its gotten ahead of itself lately. Look for it to touch the 20-day in the near future.

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And more than just touch it. Its sitting right near the 200 day now. The SOX will be the one to watch for direction.

Note the RSI scale: it touched the 35 mark and bounced that last few times during the past year.

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Bounced off the 35 RSI....also pushed up above the old resistance line. Actually looks pretty strong here, but it could also start working on the right shoulder of a H&S...time will tell.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Weekly update.

 

Except for Friday's Fed rate-cut rally, it was a bad week for the bulls. The weekly indicators are still declining. The all important 26 week ema is flat lining here. We are at the tell tale line in the sand for the markets. Mentioned a few weeks ago that the Sto might go for a touch of the 20 line and it is ever so close. Lt MACD signal line crossover and ST MACD histo gaining momentum to the down side. Since we still don't have a valid signal from the 26 week, its still considered a correction within a b-ull market. That could all change very soon, but until then we will do what we have been doing all along in this b-ull...use the daily charts for entry/exits and go from the long side only......for now.

[Abby Justa Colon]

It may ramp up here before we get a decent chance at a re-entry. Possibly  flagging an intra-day buy going below -50 on the 3-day Monday morning....something to keep an eye on, but it would once again be for a very quick swing trade.

 

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No new entry signal was given early last week....and that was a good thing as stops would have been triggered. A new entry signal was given Friday as the CMO 3-day broke through the -50 line to the upside. Note the huge volume on Thursday. That volume will be undoubtedly re-tested at some point so any longs here have to be watched carefully with tight stops in place. Also note the divergence in the 12 day CMO and price. As the price made a new low, the CMO made a more shallow low. This b-ullish divergence may play out as a bounce in price. Time will tell, but this is generally a powerful signal in charting.

[Abby Justa Colon]

.....it could also start working on the right shoulder of a H&S...time will tell.

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Kinda has that look and feel but still has a ways to go if it is an H&S pattern.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Weekly update.

 

We are at the tell tale line in the sand for the markets. Mentioned a few weeks ago that the Sto might go for a touch of the 20 line and it is ever so close. That could all change very soon, but until then we will do what we have been doing all along in this b-ull...use the daily charts for entry/exits and go from the long side only......for now.

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Good week for the b-ulls...up 3.8% for the week. If using a hedged fund such as RYVYX or QLD you are looking at impressive 7-8% gains for the week! Not too shabby.

 

The all important 26 week ema turned up along with most of the other indicators we follow. Stocastic bounced near the o-ver sold 20 line. MACD turned up.

 

For now we will stick with the same game plan....trade from the long side looking for entry/exits on the daily charts.

[Abby Justa Colon]

A new entry signal was given Friday as the CMO 3-day broke  through the -50 line to the upside. Note the huge volume on Thursday. That volume will be undoubtedly re-tested at some point so any longs here have to be watched carefully with tight stops in place. Also note the divergence in the 12 day CMO and price. As the price made a new low, the CMO made a more shallow low. This b-ullish divergence may play out as a bounce in price. Time will tell, but this is generally a powerful signal in charting.

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Another good trade! Lately, instead of selling when the CMO 3-day hits the 100 mark, I will sell half of my position at 100 and then wait for the CMO 3-day to slide below +50 from above. This way you book some profits, but still have some on the table in the event that the market drifts higher (or as in todays late session short squeeze).

 

Anyway, lots of things to ponder on the daily chart. The 11/34 cross is still in the bear camp, but close to a crossover. The CMO 12-day has been rising, but the last few days it stalled out and actually reversed despite Fridays move up. Volume on the upside has been dwindling and is actually less and less with each move up...this shows signs that the fence sitters are not sold on this rally and are waiting possibly for a re-test of that monster volume from a week ago Thursday.

 

So for now we will sell out the remaining long position with the process outlined above and look to re-enter in the coming week.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Sox update. Decent week for the Sox.

 

Ran the Sox through the the CMO chart and ended with a nice divergence showing on the 12-day. Back above the trendline....

[Abby Justa Colon]

Good week for the b-ulls...up 3.8% for the week. If using a hedged fund such as RYVYX or QLD you are looking at impressive 7-8% gains for the week! Not too shabby.

 

The all important 26 week ema turned up along with most of the other indicators we follow. Stocastic bounced near the o-ver sold 20 line. MACD turned up.

 

For now we will stick with the same game plan....trade from the long side looking for entry/exits on the daily charts.

Tack on another positive week....even with the roller coaster action this week the b-ulls managed to add to their gains.

 

The all important 26 week ema is still pointing up. The LT MACD histo is still in the negative area but is moving up. ST MACD had a crossover of its signal line and the histo turned positive. Watch the stochastic at the b-ull/bear line of 50. Its just above which is b-ullish, but if it turns back down here it will be a very bearish signal.

 

Once again we will stick with the same game plan....trade from the long side looking for entry/exits on the daily charts.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Anyway, lots of things to ponder on the daily chart. The 11/34 cross is still in the bear camp, but close to a crossover. The CMO 12-day has been rising, but the last few days it stalled out and actually reversed despite Fridays move up.  Volume on the upside has been dwindling and is actually less and less with each move up...this shows signs that the fence sitters are not sold on this rally and are waiting possibly for a re-test of that monster volume from a week ago Thursday.

 

So for now we will sell out the remaining long position with the process outlined above and look to re-enter in the coming week.

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CMO 12-day went positive during the past week. Still looking for the 11/34 ma cross (.01 away). Fridays close was a doji on the candlestick charts (usually a sign of indecision). Volume picked up a tad last week but is still very light. It seems like everyone and his brother is looking for a re-test of the monster volume day two weeks ago. The market likes to make fools of as many people as it can -so that said we might just not get that re-test....time will tell. If we do get a re-test on light volume, you should see many buyers show up.

 

A sell signal for remaining position was triggered on Monday. The CMO 3-day actually went below the -50 on Wednesday morning intra-day then reversed up giving another buy signal. An exit signal for half the position (see last weeks update) was triggered on Friday as the CMO 3-day tagged and closed at 100. If you missed that entry/exit... not to worry as the way this market has been lately it should present plenty of opportunities in the days ahead.

[Abby Justa Colon]

Sox update. Decent week for the Sox.

 

Ran the Sox through the the CMO chart and ended with a nice divergence showing on the 12-day. Back above the trendline....

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Sox had big finish for the week although only a meger gain for the entire week. All in all, still a fairly decent looking chart.

[Abby Justa Colon]

The all important 26 week ema is still pointing up. The LT MACD histo is still in the negative area but is moving up. ST MACD had a crossover of its signal line and the histo turned positive. Watch the stochastic at the b-ull/bear line of 50. Its just above which is b-ullish, but if it turns back down here it will be a very bearish signal.

 

Once again we will stick with the same game plan....trade from the long side looking for entry/exits on the daily charts.

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One for the b-ulls this week. Down 1.53% for the week.

 

Stochastic managed to move well past the 50 b-ull/bear line. LT MACD histo ticked down, the ST MACD histo actually went into negative territory and had a crossover in its signal line. The all important 26 week ema still pointing upward.

 

Lots of people split on the direction the market will go. B-ulls are saying a re-test of the lows are forthcoming and then its off to the races. Bears are saying we are just beginning a new bear market with sub 1000 on the S&P the ultimate target in a year or so. Pick your camp if you like.... just make sure your on the right side of the trade no matter which way it goes.

[Abby Justa Colon]

An exit signal for half the position (see last weeks update) was triggered on Friday as the CMO 3-day tagged and closed at 100.  If you missed that entry/exit... not to worry as the way this market has been lately it should present plenty of opportunities in the days ahead.

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Another wild week. The good news is that if you have been following this trading system you would have missed Fridays decline while waiting on the sidelines for the next buy signal.

 

Doc's charting service has not been working lately, so I had to pull up this chart for the CMO readings.

 

The 3-day CMO broke through and hit dead bottom on Friday. The 12-day is still in positive territory. The 22-day is right at the bull/bear line. The 11/34 ma is still in the b-ull cross camp, although it looks to be making a turn. Volume ticked up some, but still remains much less than in Augusts' decline.

 

Remaining 1/2 position was sold on Wednesday when the 3-day CMO broke down through +50. So for now we will wait for a breakthrough of -50 from below to go long. Remember to use sound money management rules (outlined on page 1) and stops when putting on a new trade.