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Market Crashes Nearly 1/2%


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Forgive Me Lord, This is a Big One- Professional Edition

by Lee Adler, Saturday, September 26, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Fed credit rose last week, as the Fed bought GSEs, Treasuries and MBS. These purchases were more than enough to offset declining Alphabet Soup. Total Fed credit has been rising rapidly over the past 7 weeks but is still below the high set in December and April’s secondary peak.

 

At the same time, an alternative measure of money supply measuring the most liquid money holdings has been collapsing. With the removal of government guarantees on money market fund deposits, the collapse of retail money market funds may be accelerating. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

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Random thoughts....

 

I have posted below the whole enchilada from1920 on...

 

As you can see we, are a making only our 2nd great test of the 200 month MA in the last 60+ years. Something in my gut says the rule of alternation says we don't hold it this time, and instead make a run for the monthly 900...

 

Any Thoughts on this Shorty?

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Here is another look at why I think it might be different than 74 this time...

 

Look at the fractal similarities of the NYA monthly today, with the weekly in 1929. If this is indeed a super cycle top of greater degree than '29, then it would make sense that a monthly chart might look similar to a weekly at the lesser degree.

 

Does anyone else see any similarity at all between the NYA monthly now to the Dow weekly in spring of 1930?

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Thanks for the long-term perspective.

 

Let's say that we don't make it to the 900 - just for argument's sake - but we do have a rendezvous with the 500 at ~4300.

 

Assuming that, what would be your basic timeframe for getting there?

 

I told friends when the "troubles" were underway that I think we'll see a 4-handle again on the Dow before all is said and done. I know TJ thinks that makes of me a stupid douche, and he's probably right. But the ramp out of 1995 is just silly. And worthy of retracement, in a universe of my creation.

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Thanks for the long-term perspective.

 

Let's say that we don't make it to the 900 - just for argument's sake - but we do have a rendezvous with the 500 at ~4300.

 

Assuming that, what would be your basic timeframe for getting there?

 

I told friends when the "troubles" were underway that I think we'll see a 4-handle again on the Dow before all is said and done. I know TJ thinks that makes of me a stupid douche, and he's probably right. But the ramp out of 1995 is just silly. And worthy of retracement, in a universe of my creation.

 

Bad ass bears like to retrace 80-90%...ask the Japanese. 40,000 to 7K=82.5%

 

14k minus 80%=2,800

 

But, 4300 could do it, or March may have already done it..next year or 2 could reveal mucho.

 

Tough to estimate time frame..Japan declined for what? 19 years so far...

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Bad ass bears like to retrace 80-90%...ask the Japanese. 40,000 to 7K=82.5%

 

14k minus 80%=2,800

 

But, 4300 could do it, or March may have already done it..next year or 2 could reveal mucho.

 

Tough to estimate time frame..Japan declined for what? 19 years so far...

We have many years of declines ahead of us IMO.I also think deflation might be the ruling force for quite a few years....We might actually follow japan quite closely in many areas...stocks,bonds and real estate.

 

<_<

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Tonight's Fed Report certainly lays a theoretical case for things getting very, very bad. I know most of you who are regular posters are subscribers, but many of our readers are not. I must tell you that I feel that this is one of the most important reports I have ever posted. I invite you to try the service risk free for the next 30 days.

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We have many years of declines ahead of us IMO.I also think deflation might be the ruling force for quite a few years....We might actually follow japan quite closely in many areas...stocks,bonds and real estate.

 

<_<

 

So, maybe by 2018 they'll call it the "Great Unwinding" and they'll exclaim "what on earth were they thinking."

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Random thoughts....

 

I have posted below the whole enchilada from1920 on...

 

As you can see we, are a making only our 2nd great test of the 200 month MA in the last 60+ years. Something in my gut says the rule of alternation says we don't hold it this time, and instead make a run for the monthly 900...

 

Any Thoughts on this Shorty?

 

 

Amazing similarities KWave, here is a post from a May 09 blog showing the ?€˜32 Bond Crash following the ?€™30 rally. Current events may have compressed the fractal, but the trend seems to be intact?€?

 

post-2079-1254018328.png

 

When the bear market rally died, bonds spiked back up for the final time before the great bond crash.

 

Whats interesting here is bonds crashed in 1932 at the same time that equities did. The lows in the stock market occurred in 1932. So why didn't we see another flight back to the safety in bonds in 1932 as stocks were crashing?

 

The reasons were two fold: Liquidity concerns and fears around inflation as a result of massive government stimulus.

The Great Bond Crash of the 1930's

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Random thoughts....

 

I have posted below the whole enchilada from1920 on...

 

As you can see we, are a making only our 2nd great test of the 200 month MA in the last 60+ years. Something in my gut says the rule of alternation says we don't hold it this time, and instead make a run for the monthly 900...

 

Any Thoughts on this Shorty?

 

 

Even a trip to the 500 would be devastating. Thanks for the great charts. :D

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Paper Program Trading Reamsults, for the week..

 

About a week ago I let loose a program trading bot, to place paper trades through Interborkive Actors.

 

Backtest results suggested that the TA in use would grab about 1 ES point per day, after commissions. Fully mechanical. None of that discretionary dumb finger blow-up bullsheet...

 

So far so bad.

post-2117-1254039456_thumb.png

Bad fills. A bug in the bot. Missing bars in the data feed. A couple of Interborkive Actors disconnects etc..

 

Net net: about 10 points behind excluding commissions & about 30 points behind including commissions.

 

Well done to KWave, Psyche, and others that can do this stuff consistently profitably.

 

Manually, my real money account is up and down. Not consistent.

 

Automatically, so far [small sample size], this paper program trading system is not looking so hot.

 

Looks great in backtest ... :ninja:

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