DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Rally from here would set up a reverse head and shoulders on the 10 minute bar chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 OK. That busts any chance of a valid reverse H&S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 The last secular bear market in gold lasted 21 years. This one started in 2011. I would highly doubt a secular bear market in gold would last that long. The following chart resembles a major bottom forming rather than a continued slide into the abyss. The strength in the US Dollar seems to be playing havoc on the world markets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 5 day cycle up phase aborted prematurely. New projection tentatively 2813. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 I would highly doubt a secular bear market in gold would last that long. The following chart resembles a major bottom forming rather than a continued slide into the abyss. The strength in the US Dollar seems to be playing havoc on the world markets. 1195-1200 is obvious key level. If it falls, bearish confirmation. Cycle work says best odds of a major cyclical bottom are in Q4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 1195-1200 is obvious key level. If it falls, bearish confirmation. Cycle work says best odds of a major cyclical bottom are in Q4. This seems to set up well for a major market event sometime around mid term elections. Would imagine that is when the cycle turns for commodities relative to financial assets. At the same time the retail investor has no interest in precious metals, similar to around the 2000-2001 timeframe. This is coming at a time when currency/systemic risk is starting to become a real issue again. I think your liquidity analysis is painting the perfect picture. Sometimes markets can stay irrational longer than we think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 2 day cycle projection 2812 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 5 day 2818. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrStool Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 This seems to set up well for a major market event sometime around mid term elections. Would imagine that is when the cycle turns for commodities relative to financial assets. At the same time the retail investor has no interest in precious metals, similar to around the 2000-2001 timeframe. This is coming at a time when currency/systemic risk is starting to become a real issue again. I think your liquidity analysis is painting the perfect picture. Sometimes markets can stay irrational longer than we think. Gold could be a liquidity sink for the dollar short squeeze as dollar debtors sell anything they can get their hands on to get dollars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zero_value Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Gold could be a liquidity sink for the dollar short squeeze as dollar debtors sell anything they can get their hands on to get dollars. Unfortunately Bingo Doc....tick tock....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sandy beach Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Good food for thought - gold, bonds and the rest - keep it coming! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
potatohead Posted August 13, 2018 Report Share Posted August 13, 2018 Gold could be a liquidity sink for the dollar short squeeze as dollar debtors sell anything they can get their hands on to get dollars. Good point. However, I would think that the stock market would be a deeper source of liquidity.There is not nearly enough physical gold out there for debtors to fund their dollar short squeeze. Especially when the price of gold is collapsing. Would think a default would be more in the cards if can not find enough dollars. Why would emerging market countries sell off strategic assets when the debt burdens may never be able to be paid off? Would be easier to walk away. Similar to the US mortgage crisis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jorma Posted August 14, 2018 Report Share Posted August 14, 2018 Holly cow. $39.7 Bn Wednesday, coupons $37 Bn Thursday, bills. https://www.treasurydirect.gov/instit/annceresult/press/press_cashpydwn.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aussiebear Posted August 14, 2018 Author Report Share Posted August 14, 2018 ---> Tuesday trumpeting http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.php?showtopic=13300 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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