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Symbolic Of The Perma-Bear Ultimate Fantasy?


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Take a look at what Soros posted

 

http://www.capitalstool.com/forums/index.p...t=ST&f=7&t=1900

 

Dustbowl, now even the Commercials are covered and long for the ride to hell.

 

Everyone is on board for the big rally it seems or as is required before the next big move down are they all on board for the ride to hell?

 

I interpret COT the way Doc does, not really good for the market. Short-covering potential to prop this PIG is now non-existant. All potential buyers depleted. LOB.

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I don't pay much attention to the COT report because I can't tell what is real buying and what is hedging....BUT... some time ago I read that the Commercials never get either long or short at the exact turns. They are usually early. I believe it happend in the 2000 top (they were short in advance but I don't recall how long). If that is correct, the low is out there (July ??? :D )

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Very good pt BB. They do position early because they are large and can, and actually have to b/c of their size. :P

 

Arch Crawford's prediction is a major low around November and then one of the biggest longest rallies we've seen in years (months, perhaps 1-2 years long). Perhaps they are prepping for it now.

 

Either way I'd suspect a big drop beforehand will occur.

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BARE,

 

July 2003 is the time I have identified as the low of the bear move. Intermediate point of reference is May 2003. If May 2003 is a high and July 2003 a low, then the first leg of the bear (or if I might say....All the bear... :D ) is over.

 

Based on some Gann stuff that I work on (cycles) "depression" similar to 1932 doesn't come until 2010 +/-

 

If my interpretation of these "stuff" is correct (because everything is based on interpretation), then many will be caught by suprise to see the market near it's all time high again within 3-4 years.

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If this is a net short to net long switch by the commercials, not sure it is the first switch long, you would want to wait for a pullback next week on the SPX, check the commercial position and go long if the commercials are still net long and the SPX dropped week to week. That is how the COT trade was explained to me. Don't go with the switch until the SPX pulls back and commercials still long.

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