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Sell Rosh Hashanah, Buy Yom Kippur


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IBM - A RETIREMENT STORY

 

IBM is another stock that is really owned by the pensioners - like GM.

 

Has a large capitalisation which is kept up in the air by accounting games.

 

Stock basically worthless.

 

It will be great short candidate - but when I dont know

 

But when the down comes it will be ruthless - take it down under $50 a share.

 

Will probably get a government bailout at the end al la GM.

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<h2 class="post-title">Complexion of Fed Support To Change- Professional Edition</h2>

by Lee Adler, Saturday, September 19, 2009, in Money and The Fed, Professional Edition | Permalink |Comments (0) Edit Fed credit rose last week, as the Fed bought GSEs, Treasuries and MBS. They helped to stabilize the Treasury market and drive rates down at the short end by settling nearly $60 billion in forward MBS purchase commitments. These purchases were more than enough to offset declining Alphabet Soup. Total Fed credit has been rising rapidly over the past 6 weeks but is still below the high set in December and April’s secondary peak. Click here to download complete report in pdf format (Professional Edition Subscribers). Try the Professional Edition risk free for thirty days. If, within that time, you don’t find the information useful, I will give you a full refund. It’s that simple. Click here for more information.

 

 

Doc, I love this comment from the WSE. B)

Since the Fed can make up its own numbers, I thought I’d try my own numbers too.

 

I think that is the reason gold is 1k. A lot of people including a lot of foreigners are coming to the realization of this fact. <_<

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Had some fun & games here Friday night.

 

My place was burglared. They ransack my room probably looking for cash. Luckily my house mate was asleep in his room upstairs and when he woke up they fled. He reckons they were eastern Europeans. Have quite a few of these guys in Ireland now committing crime.

 

I was fortunate that they did not take my trading computers & screens. Would cost me quite a bit to replace them. One funny aspect of it was that I left my wallet on my desk (its bulky to be carrying around) but I had inadvertently left my sweater on top. They pulled out all of the drawers from the desk and emptied the contents on the floor but never lifted the sweater.

 

All in all, I got away lightly.

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Despite my fri night hassles, I went to a free seminar on Sat given by this guy.

 

http://www.ashraflaidi.com/

 

Talk about 3 hrs of nonsense. This guy often appears on Bloomberg and CNBC or so he claims.

 

It was painful to listen to him give a host of reasons why the dollar jumped this day and gold went up another day (news noise stuff) and how often he had called this right much to the amazement of commentators on Bloomberg who are in awe of his predictive ability. When I asked him what his trading strategy was and how he makes these predictions and how does he trade the news given the speed of the mkt response to announcements, he was uncomfortable with the question and fudged the answer.

 

During the talk, he also kept changing his voice level from loud to extremely loud in an effort to keep everybody awake. It got v annoying after a while.

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Below -- The impact of commissions on high frequency trading.

 

Top equity curve = $0 per round trip.

 

Bottom equity curve = $7.00 per round trip.

 

Same trades. Entirely different result reamsult.

post-2117-1253371485_thumb.png

 

 

Need to review my scalping technique. But some quick numbers.

 

Trading a 2 pt spread making a average of about 5 pips per trade (with a range of 1-10 and the odd 30 pip winner). Currently running at a 90-95% success rate. With the high spread, its essential to maintain a high success rate. Will be working hard at this next week.

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Need to review my scalping technique. But some quick numbers.

 

Trading a 2 pt spread making a average of about 5 pips per trade (with a range of 1-10 and the odd 30 pip winner). Currently running at a 90-95% success rate. With the high spread, its essential to maintain a high success rate. Will be working hard at this next week.

IMO, best "bet" is to get a data set and back test it... Rule out the sheet strategies early on.

 

Running an untested system live, is a recipe for disappointment, and poverty imo.

 

Many things just don't work. Some of them in very subtle ways.

 

[Especially when not subscribed to Doc's professional edition ;) ]

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A little tid-bit from Mauldin's weekly letter...

 

...

 

It seems the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, in the CPI next week, will treat the subsidy received by those 800,000 car buyers who bought a car in the "Cash for Clunkers" program as if the price of a car fell by $4,500. Really? My tax dollars account for nothing?

 

This does several things. It will decrease the inflation used to adjust the GDP for this quarter. Not the end of the world, but annoying But what really matters is that the CPI is used to calculate Social Security increases and interest paid on TIPS.

 

....

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IMO, best "bet" is to get a data set and back test it... Rule out the sheet strategies early on.

 

Running an untested system live, is a recipe for disappointment, and poverty imo.

 

Many things just don't work. Some of them in very subtle ways.

 

[Especially when not subscribed to Doc's professional edition ;) ]

 

Not sure how you get a back tested data set for a discretionary scalping system. What I have been doing instead is doing the trading live with v small position size (I dont like the demo approach as I find I get too casual with the trades when its just virtual money). As confidence grows with the approach, my plan is to scale up position size.

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Is this going to hit gold hard on Monday?

 

http://www.news.com.au/perthnow/story/0,21...779-951,00.html

 

THE International Monetary Fund will sell 403.3 tonnes of its gold reserves, worth an estimated $A15 billion, to provide loans to poor countries and shore up its finances.

While the fund's executive board said it decided on Friday to sell its stocks in a way that would not disrupt commodity markets, gold prices are expected to be hit hard.

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The clunkers program, like the first time buyers $8000 credit, increased the nominal price of these items. Some adjustments to the reported prices are appropriate. Without these props, buyers would not have paid what they paid. They also created artificial volume and artificial shortage which further raised nominal prices. With the clunkers program ended, the volume has collapsed, and the shortages will soon enough turn into surplus again as the supply channels are refilled.

 

We are in the teeth of a deflationary storm. At the same time, certain asset classes are inflating. That's the way it has been and will continue to be, although I think those classes that will continue to inflate will narrow considerably at some point in 2010.

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