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Bad news matters....finally


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For those who don't have time to read Martin Armstrong's whole article:

 

http://bullioninsider.blogspot.com/2009/02...government.html

 

Summary at end in part is this:

 

"Unless we attack the debt structure directly, there is no point in counting upon any government to help mitigate the problem and more-likely-than-not, our very future may be recast in so many ways, the level of frustration will rise, and that leads to war because war distracts the people from hanging their own politicians. The oldest trick in the book is to blame the guy next-door down. Unless we are honestly prepared to truly 1) reorganize the structure of government, 2) reorganize the entire debt structure both private and public, 3) regulate leverage, 4) restore usury laws that will free up personal income, and 5) look at just eliminating the federal income tax in combination with 6) establishing a new national heathcare system that will restructure all pension plans public and private, there is not much hope for the future from government."

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Latest from Richard Russell on the Lowry's data.

 

Lowry's Buying Power Index as of yesterday was only 6 points above its level of March 9. That puts the market on very thin ice. It means that the desire to buy stocks has been steadily fading. All that's needed now is a rise in selling pressure, and this market will unravel.

 

Every day I compute the span between Lowry's Buying Power Index and their Selling Pressure Index. The wider the span, the more bearish the situation. Yesterday the span closed at 872, the widest since March 9. This is the weakest reading of the entire rally. Extreme caution is warranted

RR

that coincides fairly well with Shorty's Reaming Pressure Index which aSS of turday's close aSSumed a fairly wide stance of 890 ft-lb's of torque

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Bill Gross said today on crapvision with 35 million out of work and slow wage growth how does the consumer economy work? We're headed to Dentville

http://tinyurl.com/mpp7dz

 

Bill thinks it's gunna be a "Great Recession" that could persist for a generation.

http://www.pimco.com/LeftNav/Featured+Mark...oss+Appetit.htm

 

With government employees now taking body blows, pink slips, and involuntary pay cuts, there is going to be a whole new group of consumers that can't go out and spend like crazy anymore.

 

Then the whole part of the economy that has been feeding off government largese is going to get hit as contracts dry, get smaller, or get renegotiated.

 

It's a malaise that will continue to spread. Municiple/county/state governments can't cheat like the Feds can.

 

Can't cheat death.

 

:lol:

 

Six months to go until Christmas. Guess what's gonna happen to all that extra sales tax revenue the cities expect to get? Nothing! They won't get nearly as much as they've become accustomed to.

 

Shock and awe round 2 approaching.

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California state workers got a third unpaid furlough day off shoved down their throats by the Governator this week. They are making that gagging sound because they aren't used to getting roughed up in that fashion like us private sector peeps. They are even talking about having themselves a good old fashioned STRIKE. Good for them, we'll find out what other state services we don't need. I might even go heckle the strickers for a while, unless they come after me. :ph34r:

 

They've now taken a 14.5% involuntary pay cut this year and get three extra days off a month (without pay).

 

Legislatures have taken about a 5% paycut, but not all have volunteered for a little chop chop action.

 

Still lots and lots of carnage to go in California.

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If Arnold would just repent and turn Democrat you think the ganster Fed would shovel some money their way?

 

The Fed doesn't care about political parties. It's run by big banks. Do big banks have anything to gain by shoveling money Arnie's way? I can't think of anything.

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My long, profitable FAZ position hopes you're right. But I don't like the crappy traction on this downphase, and the fact that this could be a reverse hunchback h&s off the March low. Very noivous, this bear is.

Me too, am long a single position of FAZ, just waiting. May write some FAZ Jul 5 putz if RIFIN runs higher and stalls.

 

In the FWIW dept...GS, BAC & C all report during this scam week, as they did in April......when the financials levitated right through Fri afternoon.

 

From the close on Fri 17 Apr through the open on Tue 20 Apr, RIFIN fell 15% and FAZ gained 50%.

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Me too, am long a single position of FAZ, just waiting. May write some Jul 5 putz if RIFIN runs higher and stalls.

 

In the FWIW dept...GS, BAC & C all report during this scam week, as they did in April......when the financials levitated right through Fri afternoon.

 

From the close on Fri 17 Apr through the open on Tue 20 Apr, RIFIN fell 15% and FAZ gained 50%.

In addition to my double position of FAZ, I'm short a bunch of July 4 puts and some July 7 and 8 calls. My July bear call spread on GS turned marginally profitable today and I took off a small part of it- may try to weasel out of the rest Monday. I had a religious experience in 2005 with GOOG bear spreads, and promised myself never again to hold a non-index spread through yearnings :ph34r:

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