machinehead Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 The symbolic meaning of those firings is that Bush is fed up with bad economic and market news, and he's not gonna take it any more. It must irk the shit of Dubya that Bubba Clinton cruised through 8 years of a huge boom. Bush wants to be a Boom-Boom President too. Who wouldn't? It is just so damned aggravating (if you're the Bushes) that both 41 and 43 got tagged with a mid-term recession, meaning that the lagging unemployment peak coincides with the next election year. The rotten luck! If the Cajun Goebbels, Carville, was still around, he'd tell Bush: "It's the interest rates, stupid!" (a stoned insight if I ever heard one). When you can peddle T-bills at 1.20%, THAT'S LIKE FREE MONEY LYIN' ON THE SIDEWALK! Why suffer pain when you don't have to? Borrow and keep borrowing till it don't hurt anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 I think you folks have it backwards regarding Mr. O'Neil's dollar position. If you'll recall, when one of O'Neil's first boo-boos was his statement that the US didn't follow a strong dollar policy. I think he only reluctantly retracted that position later. As the head of Alcoa, he would have been more in favor of a weaker dollar. I seriously doubt that O'Neil was allowed to follow his instincts and may have been more supportive of a weaker or market based dollar privately. So in that sense, I don't think the strong dollar policy is over, and may in fact become more evident. Huge deficits, higher long term rates, and a devaluation of the dollar no doubt lie in our future. The question is when. In that respect those betting on that happening soon may well end up disappointed. If the dollar starts to decline significantly you are going to see competitive devaluations spring out of the wood work like a mayfly hatch. Mr. Roach's last missive was quite instructive in what to expect. If his suppositions are correct what starts innocently as a move to devalue the dollar could easily end up manifesting in trade barriers. Ah, who the heck cares anyway. One way or the other I'd be swapping paper for metal and damn soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGakaTheBigHurt Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Agree with Yobob, O'Neil talked a good game regarding the strong $ of late but perhaps was just spouting the company line. As an executive at International Paper before his Alcoa gig he lobbied against a strong $ policy. I believe the strong $ policy of the recent admin was the company line and not where O'Neil's heart was necessarily at. As someone coming out of the old U.S. manufacturing base, he knows how much pressure the strong $ is putting on U.S. based producers, what's left of them. I suppose you argue for whatever suits your situation. I never got the impression he was anything more than a figurehead anyway. Someone set up to take the fall when things go badly. Two more unemployment claims coming right up. Seems to me the notion that this is a positive for the stock market is off kilter as the market tanked the most when $ was falling in the spring/summer and foriegners were pulling out. The bear market is about rebalancing things that were extremely unbalanced. The rebalncing process is taking longer than usual as there was a lot more of it to do. Plus the market's monthly decline is less than the pace of previous bear markets which have tended to average -2%/month. This decline has been at a pace of -1.6%/month. Perhaps that is because this Fed favors "soft"? landings and direct intervention beyond anything seen out of its predecessors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjkst27 Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 "The symbolic meaning of those firings is that Bush is fed up with bad economic and market news, and he's not gonna take it any more. " mwuhahahahahahahahahah I'll take the other side of shrub in a trade any day of the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearwithme Posted December 7, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Machinehead said: "fxfox - agreed, the strong dollar policy ended today. I suspect that the "weak gold" policy is over too." Aren't the controllers considering letting gold do a run?? What the heck.. the dollar goes down.. a toyota goes up in price, but it helps save the US banking system from collapsing as a result of the housing bubble.. inflate it away! I say that we can HOWEVER (and will) have both!!! A massive deflating housing bubble, and at the same time, a rapidly falling dollar. ...Won't that be fun. You don't have to choose between a grotesquely obese woman and a woman with a terrible disposition for a wife. You can HAVE IT ALL! .. simply marry a woman who weighs 450 pounds and also has a terrible disposition. The fed is currently finding a DJ and booking a hall for the wedding reception for us as at this very moment... BAck to Machineheads comment on Bushie 41, and Bushie 43 both getting a recession shoved up their rectums. True.. neither one had much to do with the recessionary forces built up largely before their tenure, but as someone who was intimately involved in the early days of the 92' election. (the NH primary) What really PO'd people off (steam coming out of their ears).. was that GW senior continuously DENIED there was a recession at all! When you are unemployed and barely making your mortgage you HATE people like that. Many, many NH people had a "anything other than Bush" perspective on who should be prez. The fact that 43 is doing the same thing, virtually guarantees the same outcome.. a one termer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
machinehead Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 'It fell to VP Dick Cheney, the man who brought Paul H. O'Neill into the administration, to confront his old friend with the news late on Thursday that President Bush no longer required his services. '[insiders] said that an "angry and hurt" Treasury Secretary O'Neill then called Andrew H. Card Jr., the White House chief of staff. Mr. O'Neill told Mr. Card that if the White House wanted him out ? after assuring him for months that Mr. Bush fully backed him ? he was resigning immediately. This morning, Mr. O'Neill sent Mr. Bush a four-sentence letter of resignation and left immediately for his home in Pittsburgh.' Sign me: laid off and pissed An unintentional note of humor creeps into the article: 'Early in the administration, Treasury secretary [O'Neill] took Mr. Bush on a tour of his department's operations, showing how he had increased efficiency and lowered injuries at the Bureau of Engraving and Printing.' Good instincts, Paul. If we're gonna double the output of currency, we had damn well better increase productivity and reduce those bloody collisions between forklifts rushing to the loading dock with shrink-wrapped pallets of fresh hundreds. The Iraqi people are counting on you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest yobob1 Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 Tgaka >> As someone coming out of the old U.S. manufacturing base, he knows how much pressure the strong $ is putting on U.S. based producers, what's left of them. What's left of them is right. If what I read is correct we should all be heading for that shack in the mountains. (pity the people who live in flat states like FLORIDA ) Supposedly we have fewer people involved in manufacturing (production) than at any point since 1961. Not percentage wise, but total numbers. If that doesn't scare the holy bat guano out of you then nothing will. People, you have to understand that a service economy is simply not functional. Just what in the hell is going to happen when all those people employed in the mortgage and other financial busineses start hitting the street. Or when health care growth stops because no one can afford the care or the insurance to pay for the care? Throw in untold millions when construction starts slipping (and therefore everyone that supplies the building components and out-fitting of buildings) and auto assembly workers with all the related suppliers. It just isn't going to be pretty. The 25%+ unemployment of the 30's might look like boom times to what we may face. A massive meteor strike might be kinder in the long run. And we can't just turn around and start making our own toasters again. The machinery was all shipped out with the jobs or that which wasn't is so old and obsolete as to be worthless. The thought of the US engaging in a major theater conflict is laughable. We would need to buy a lot of stuff from our potential adversaries, just like the berets the military bought from China. I don't know where or how it stops. It just seems that every day we slip further into an ever growing black hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 7, 2002 Report Share Posted December 7, 2002 The way I see it playing out is the real economy/markets imploding sometime next year. Martial Law will have to be declared in early 2004 (No Elections) - this scenario plays out if the FED and the Government are working together? Or The way I see it playing out is the real economy/markets imploding sometime next year. Martial Law will have to be declared in early 2004 (No Elections) then the FEDERAL government collapses - this scenario plays out if the FED and the Government are ?not? working together? Or the "miracle" that everyone is expecting to show up does... Like 3,000,000 Jobs at $30,000/year are created before Christmas and an additional 100,000 jobs per week after that for the next 2 years! That ?miracle? would only slow the effects of Deflation (Like Japan), But lets be ?realistic? it ain?t going to happen? A Raging Bull market in unemployment kicks into high gear next year. Add to that a drop of only 5% in house prices to wipe out the equity of 10?s of millions of home ?buyers?/mortgage payers. There is no way to paper this thing over until 2004. Between now and the next election the economy/markets/world banking system will implode. Disclamer: I have been analyzing the banking system for years and I am sick of it, so the sooner it collapses the better. It is not impossible for the economy to make it till 2005, all I know for sure is 2003 will be worse than 2001 and 2002. 2004 will be worse than 2003. We barely made it ?here? and the conditions will only get worse next year, "DRASTICALLY? worse. That's the way it's looking now, and that?s the way it's looked for years. Debt Deflation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bearwithme Posted December 8, 2002 Author Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Great postings from all! One of you guys said: "What's left of them is right. If what I read is correct we should all be heading for that shack in the mountains. (pity the people who live in flat states like FLORIDA )" That is exactly what I have done.. I'm not joking, I'm serious! ...I haven't gotten to the point of stocking up on canned goods... at least not yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Goldmember Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 I somehow suspect the firings of these two was a knee-jerk panic reaction to gold nearing the Japalm critical level. Be on the lookout for a troubled-bank friendly conspirator anti-gold type of candidate for Treasury position. Does the name Phil Gramm come to mind? Paper proponent asshole extroirdinaire coming soon to a Treasury role near you! On a lighter note, Surfing the Appocalypse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Charmin Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Sy Harding has a bullish take on these latest events - and now we must always be aware of more surprising announcements from Washington in coming weeks http://www.streetsmartreport.com/decisionp...intarticle.html StreetSmartReport_120602.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hypertiger Posted December 8, 2002 Report Share Posted December 8, 2002 Like I said I'm sick of it... Ok, well they better push the miracle button... When deflation starts and is let run for 2 years and covered up then big tax cuts are announced, what is that? bribery. If they cut taxes in 1999 then that would have prolonged things but in 1999 the taxes were being sucked up good. All it will amount to is less feed to get the job done if anything at all. It will do nothing significant for the economy. Maybe buy another month of hope. The game they are playing is coming to an end next year no mater what they do. I think they will run it to Christmas churn and burn style then try to blast it to the next point and that could be it... psychology collapse. Could you imagine C.N.B.C. going off the air in 2004? Or what? They shoot it up to 100,000? 200,000? How high will it have to go before the economy is saved? Ha ha ha ha ha ha? The tax increases next year will blow away any gains from tax cuts, unemployment will grind on maybe even accelerate. Until the 7 trillion dollars or whatever that has been wiped out so far is found and returned DOWN is where we are headed long term. Do you think George W Bush knows how long it takes for the first signs of problems in the ?REAL HUMAN BEING? economy take to show up in force? About 2 years, does Al know this? 2003 is shaping up to be a killer and it is only the beginning. If they could stop the deflationary death plunge we entered in the year 2000 right now. it would take 5 to 6 years to get back to? Where? Where are we going? What are we trying to do? Wage WAR, lay siege to cities!!! Maybe we won?t make it to where ever ?we?re? headed. But being cautious is good also? We have yet to enter ?cornered wild animal stage yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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